What it would take for Vince George.
Miller starts 37.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 12,856 net votes toward George, a 5.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 32.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes George the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.5-point national wave.
118,569 votes.
That is half of the 237,137 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where George stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 10,959 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Miller today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. George needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Miller.
Who. At least 5,350 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where George's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean George's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 12,856 net votes against a gap of 89,941. Still 77,085 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 32.5 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 5% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+73Precinct 14 (Lincoln County)persuadeStarting line Miller +40. 14.5% split their ticket.
- 02+66Precinct 403 (Kanawha County)mobilizeStarting line George +37. 4.7% split their ticket. About 397 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+65Precinct 22 (Cabell County)persuadeStarting line Miller +2. 13.9% split their ticket.
- 04+63Precinct 406 (Kanawha County)mobilizeStarting line George +41. 7.8% split their ticket. About 431 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+63Precinct 174 (Kanawha County)persuadeStarting line George +46. 11.8% split their ticket. About 111 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+57Precinct 184 (Kanawha County)persuadeStarting line George +8. 9.7% split their ticket.
- 07+54Precinct 170 (Kanawha County)mobilizeStarting line George +47. 5.9% split their ticket. About 196 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+49Precinct 253 (Kanawha County)persuadeStarting line George +10. 9.3% split their ticket.
- 09+47Precinct 160 (Kanawha County)persuadeStarting line George +6. 8.8% split their ticket.
- 10+46Precinct 357 (Kanawha County)mobilizeStarting line George +59. 7.0% split their ticket. About 196 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+45Precinct 10 (Lincoln County)persuadeStarting line Miller +57. 15.1% split their ticket.
- 12+44Precinct 59 (Cabell County)persuadeStarting line Miller +39. 10.8% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 14 (Lincoln County) carries the most.
Precinct 14 (Lincoln County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 73. It sits at Miller +40 on our starting line, and 14.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 406 (Kanawha County) is a turnout target.
George's side leads Precinct 406 (Kanawha County) by about 41 points on our starting line, and it cast about 431 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 52 votes there.
Precinct 10 (Lincoln County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 10 (Lincoln County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Miller had $604K in cash on hand to George's $258K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where George's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 893
- Slope
- 0.822
- R²
- 0.930
- Residual SD
- 6.6 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 114
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: George's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 21.
- Now to October 13Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with George, with Miller, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 14 to 20Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,959 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 21 to 31Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 21 through October 31, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse; mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before the county canvass on November 9. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications must be received by October 28.
- November 1 to 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 5,350 of them live where George is favored. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before the county canvass on November 9; hand-delivered ballots are due November 2.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. West Virginia has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 13. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 44.4 points; Justice carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 43.1 points; Morrisey carried the 2024 governor's race by 26.6 points.
- George wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Miller.
- In Precinct 406 (Kanawha County) and Precinct 403 (Kanawha County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 32.5 points toward George's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
3,394 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 64,775 dials to 21,592 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,488 at our published rates: 21,592 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Vince George (D)
Retired public policy analyst raised in Dunbar and South Charleston, a former social worker, teacher and federal and state benefits eligibility examiner. He is running on Medicare for All, a higher minimum wage and expanded Social Security.
Cash on hand $258,330 and $258,330 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Carol Miller (R)
U.S. representative since 2019 (the 1st District since 2023) and a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, serving on its Health and Trade subcommittees. A Huntington resident and Columbia College graduate who owns a bison farm, she served in the West Virginia House of Delegates from 2006 to 2018.
Cash on hand $604,379 and $1,746,898 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Belinda Fox-Spencer (C)
Peterstown small business owner with more than two decades in health care and a longtime pro-life advocate. She is the Constitution Party nominee.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Miller +37.9. Vince George needs 89,941 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Can Vince George win West Virginia's 1st Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 12,856 net votes against a gap of 89,941; the rest would take a 32.5-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Vince George needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 14 (Lincoln County), Precinct 403 (Kanawha County), Precinct 22 (Cabell County), Precinct 406 (Kanawha County), Precinct 174 (Kanawha County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Vince George need to persuade?
About 5,480 voters who lean Carol Miller today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 10,959 persuadable voters leaning Carol Miller.
When does early voting start in West Virginia in 2026?
Early in-person voting in West Virginia runs October 21 through October 31, 2026, including Saturdays, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse; applications must be received by October 28, and mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before the county canvass begins November 9. The registration deadline is October 13, photo ID is required at the polls, and West Virginia does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official West Virginia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official West Virginia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- West Virginia Secretary of State, 2024 general election results
- West Virginia Secretary of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: West Virginia's 1st Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: West Virginia's 1st congressional district
- The Herald-Dispatch: Miller to defend US House seat against Democrat Vince George in WV’s November general election
- Wikipedia: Carol Miller (politician)