Upset Brief · WV-02 · Ace Parsi (D) vs. Riley Moore (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.4-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
94,205
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 21
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 8 (Berkeley County)
    Starting line Moore +10. 30.0% split their ticket.
    +115
  2. 02
    Precinct 32 (Monongalia County)
    Starting line Parsi +19. 1.1% split their ticket. About 1,185 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +85
  3. 03
    Precinct 2A (Monongalia County)
    Starting line Parsi +42. 1.9% split their ticket. About 443 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +82
  4. 04
    Precinct 2B (Monongalia County)
    Starting line Parsi +46. 1.8% split their ticket. About 381 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +73
  5. 05
    Precinct 10 (Monongalia County)
    Starting line Parsi +37. 3.0% split their ticket. About 395 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +61
  6. 06
    Precinct 31 (Jefferson County)
    Starting line Parsi +20. 6.7% split their ticket. About 318 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +52

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,053 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moore today.
    +6,053
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,638 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Parsi's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +505
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Parsi's way.
    +374

Plus a national shift of 34.4 points of margin (87,273 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Parsi wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moore.
  2. In Precinct 32 (Monongalia County) and Precinct 2A (Monongalia County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 34.4 points toward Parsi's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    753 precincts, R² 0.942, 76 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -116,596 to -57,441 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Parsi $43,669 cash on hand; Moore $751,072.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    12,981 households, 38,944 dials, about 2,041 live conversations: an estimated $5,470 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,470 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All West Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official West Virginia Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.