What it would take for Ace Parsi.
Moore starts 37.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,932 net votes toward Parsi, a 2.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 34.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Parsi the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.4-point national wave.
126,878 votes.
That is half of the 253,754 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Parsi stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 6,053 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moore today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Parsi needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Moore.
Who. At least 5,638 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Parsi's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Parsi's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 6,932 net votes against a gap of 94,205. Still 87,273 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 34.4 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 10% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+115Precinct 8 (Berkeley County)persuadeStarting line Moore +10. 30.0% split their ticket.
- 02+85Precinct 32 (Monongalia County)mobilizeStarting line Parsi +19. 1.1% split their ticket. About 1,185 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+82Precinct 2A (Monongalia County)mobilizeStarting line Parsi +42. 1.9% split their ticket. About 443 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+73Precinct 2B (Monongalia County)mobilizeStarting line Parsi +46. 1.8% split their ticket. About 381 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+61Precinct 10 (Monongalia County)mobilizeStarting line Parsi +37. 3.0% split their ticket. About 395 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+52Precinct 31 (Jefferson County)persuadeStarting line Parsi +20. 6.7% split their ticket. About 318 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+49Precinct 23 (Monongalia County)mobilizeStarting line Parsi +23. 3.1% split their ticket. About 363 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+43Precinct 86 (Monongalia County)mobilizeStarting line Parsi +28. 2.7% split their ticket. About 352 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+42Precinct 16 (Hardy County)persuadeStarting line Moore +48. 15.2% split their ticket.
- 10+41Precinct 33 (Jefferson County)mobilizeStarting line Parsi +67. 5.8% split their ticket. About 116 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+40Precinct 16 (Monongalia County)mobilizeStarting line Parsi +40. 2.0% split their ticket. About 254 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+34Precinct 35 (Jefferson County)persuadeStarting line Parsi +18. 4.3% split their ticket. About 242 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 8 (Berkeley County) carries the most.
Precinct 8 (Berkeley County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 115. It sits at Moore +10 on our starting line, and 30.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 32 (Monongalia County) is a turnout target.
Parsi's side leads Precinct 32 (Monongalia County) by about 19 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,185 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 74 votes there.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Moore had $751K in cash on hand to Parsi's $44K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 6,932 net votes. The gap is 94,205. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.7 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Parsi's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 753
- Slope
- 0.844
- R²
- 0.942
- Residual SD
- 5.4 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 76
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Parsi's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 21.
- Now to October 13Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Parsi, with Moore, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 14 to 20Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,053 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 21 to 31Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 21 through October 31, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse; mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before the county canvass on November 9. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Applications must be received by October 28.
- November 1 to 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 5,638 of them live where Parsi is favored. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before the county canvass on November 9; hand-delivered ballots are due November 2.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. West Virginia has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 13. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 39.6 points; Justice carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 39.0 points; Morrisey carried the 2024 governor's race by 33.9 points.
- Parsi wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moore.
- In Precinct 32 (Monongalia County) and Precinct 2A (Monongalia County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 34.4 points toward Parsi's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,041 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 38,944 dials to 12,981 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,470 at our published rates: 12,981 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Ace Parsi (D)
Morgantown community organizer and civics education leader who came to the U.S. from Iran at age eight and holds degrees from Penn State and UC Berkeley. He was coalition engagement director for iCivics and is running on affordability, caregiving and community control over data centers.
Cash on hand $43,669 and $134,245 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Riley Moore (R)
U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2025 and a member of the House Appropriations Committee. A trained welder from the Eastern Panhandle with degrees from George Mason University and the National Defense University, he previously served as West Virginia state treasurer (2021 to 2025) and in the House of Delegates (2016 to 2018).
Cash on hand $751,072 and $1,325,162 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Moore +37.1. Ace Parsi needs 94,370 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Can Ace Parsi win West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,932 net votes against a gap of 94,205; the rest would take a 34.4-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Ace Parsi needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 8 (Berkeley County), Precinct 32 (Monongalia County), Precinct 2A (Monongalia County), Precinct 2B (Monongalia County), Precinct 10 (Monongalia County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Ace Parsi need to persuade?
About 3,026 voters who lean Riley Moore today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,053 persuadable voters leaning Riley Moore.
When does early voting start in West Virginia in 2026?
Early in-person voting in West Virginia runs October 21 through October 31, 2026, including Saturdays, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse; applications must be received by October 28, and mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before the county canvass begins November 9. The registration deadline is October 13, photo ID is required at the polls, and West Virginia does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official West Virginia Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official West Virginia Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- West Virginia Secretary of State, 2024 general election results
- West Virginia Secretary of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Ballotpedia: West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026
- Wikipedia: West Virginia's 2nd congressional district