U.S. House, Texas 31st Congressional District · November 3, 2026
Who should I vote for in Texas's 31st Congressional District?
John Carter has the strongest record in Texas's 31st Congressional District. John Carter scores 60 out of 100 on the Ballot Standard, ahead of Justin Early at 59, as of October 6, 2026. John Carter's highest marks are relevant experience and command of the job. Justin Early's highest marks are roots in the constituency and communication. Greg Stoker (6 of 15 criteria) has too little public record to score. Every score comes from public records on character, qualifications and performance, the same way for every party.
Republican · incumbent
Strongest record
John Carter
On the ballot as JOHN CARTER
60 / 100
Public evidence on 13 of 15 criteria
- Character
- 44
- Qualifications
- 80
- Performance
- 50
Democratic
Justin Early
On the ballot as JUSTIN EARLY
59 / 100
Public evidence on 8 of 15 criteria
- Character
- 50
- Qualifications
- 65
- Performance
- NR
Green
Greg Stoker
On the ballot as GREG STOKER
Not enough public record for a score
Public evidence on 6 of 15 criteria
- Character
- 50
- Qualifications
- 50
- Performance
- NR
The good, the bad and the unresolved
The record
The notable facts of each candidate's public life, each tied to a source and confirmed to be this person. Unresolved matters are labeled with where they stand and do not move a score.
John Carter
- On the record2026-02-24
Voted Yea on the ROTOR Act (S. 2503) on Feb. 24, 2026, when the Speaker, Majority Leader and Whip voted Nay; the suspension motion failed.
Source: House Clerk Roll Call 72, 2026
- On the record2021-01-07
Voted Yea on the House objections to Arizona's and Pennsylvania's certified electoral votes on Jan. 6 and 7, 2021; both objections failed.
Sources: House Clerk Roll Call 10, 2021, House Clerk Roll Call 11, 2021
- Credit2024-03-09
Sponsored H.R. 4366, which became the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2024 (Pub.L. 118-42), signed March 9, 2024.
Justin Early
No notable items confirmed in news archives or public documents.
Greg Stoker
- On the record2025-10
In October 2025 sailed with the Global Sumud Flotilla toward Gaza, was detained by Israeli forces and held in an Israeli prison for several days before returning to Austin.
Source: KUT, Oct. 8, 2025
Who they are
Character
Integrity
Tells the truth, keeps their word, and takes no private gain from public office.
John Carter. Annual financial disclosure for 2025 is on file with the House Clerk, filed May 14, 2026. No periodic transaction reports, House Ethics Committee matter, Office of Congressional Conduct referral or FEC administrative fine found.
Sources: House Clerk financial disclosure, Filing ID 10077379, House Committee on Ethics site search for John Carter, FEC administrative fines search, committee C00371203
Justin Early. FEC campaign reports are on file. No ethics, court or campaign finance finding was found in the sources checked.
Sources: FEC candidate page, House Clerk financial disclosure index, 2026 (zip of all filings)
Greg Stoker. FEC campaign reports are on file. No ethics, court or campaign finance finding was found in the sources checked.
Sources: FEC candidate page, House Clerk financial disclosure index, 2026 (zip of all filings)
Courage
Takes a stand that costs them something, including telling their own side no.
John Carter. Voted Yea on the ROTOR Act in February 2026 when the Speaker, Majority Leader and Whip voted Nay and most House Republicans opposed it.
Justin Early. No public record found.
Greg Stoker. No public record found.
Accountability
Owns mistakes, answers hard questions, and works in the open.
John Carter. No public record found.
Justin Early. No public record found.
Greg Stoker. No public record found.
Temperament and judgment
Steady under pressure, decides on evidence, and treats opponents and staff with respect.
John Carter. Williamson County district judge from 1981 to 2001 and U.S. representative since January 2003. No censure, reprimand or House Ethics Committee matter found.
Sources: Ballotpedia, John Carter (Texas), House Committee on Ethics site search for John Carter
Justin Early. Served in the Army from 1998 to 2006 and works as a cybersecurity architect at Dell Technologies. No formal conduct finding found.
Sources: Ballotpedia, Justin Early, Williamson County Sun, July 28, 2025
Greg Stoker. No public record found.
Fidelity to the oath
Uses power inside its limits: accepts certified results, obeys court rulings, follows the rules of the office.
John Carter. Voted Yea on both objections to state electors on Jan. 6 and 7, 2021 (Roll Calls 10 and 11). Not on the December 2020 Texas v. Pennsylvania House amicus brief.
Sources: House Clerk Roll Call 10, 2021, House Clerk Roll Call 11, 2021
Justin Early. Served in the U.S. Army from 1998 to 2006, including as a paratrooper. No official finding of misuse of office found.
Source: Ballotpedia, Justin Early
Greg Stoker. Former Army Ranger who served four combat deployments in Afghanistan, per his campaign; KUT describes him as a former Army Ranger. No official finding of misuse found.
Sources: KUT, Oct. 8, 2025, Campaign site, home page
What they bring
Qualifications
Relevant experience
Has done work that prepares them for this specific office.
John Carter. In the U.S. House since January 2003, now seeking a 13th term; earlier a Williamson County district judge for 20 years.
Sources: GovTrack, John Carter, Ballotpedia, John Carter (Texas)
Justin Early. Cybersecurity architect at Dell Technologies after Army service and work at the Pentagon. Has not held public office; was a Democratic precinct chair in Tarrant County.
Sources: Williamson County Sun, July 28, 2025, Ballotpedia, Justin Early
Greg Stoker. Army Ranger veteran who describes himself as a geopolitical analyst and entrepreneur. Has not held public office.
Source: Community Impact, Q&A for US House District 31, Aug. 26, 2026
Command of the job
Knows the issues and knows what the office can and cannot do.
John Carter. Chairs the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies and sits on its Defense and Commerce, Justice, Science subcommittees; sponsored the enacted Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2024.
Sources: GovTrack, committee membership, Community Impact, Q&A for US House District 31, Aug. 26, 2026, GovTrack, H.R. 4366 (118th Congress)
Justin Early. Publishes positions on costs, wages, AI and privacy, veterans and Social Security, and told the League of Women Voters he backs zoning reform and childcare tax credits; mostly general.
Sources: League of Women Voters of the Austin Area, 2026 general election voters guide, Campaign site, home page
Greg Stoker. Lists three priorities: keeping tax dollars at home rather than funding foreign governments, overturning Citizens United and ending the federal THC prohibition; positions are general.
Source: Community Impact, Q&A for US House District 31, Aug. 26, 2026
Communication
Explains plainly, persuades, and listens.
John Carter. Answered Community Impact's primary and general election questionnaires and the League of Women Voters guide, publishes issue pages and an e-newsletter. Has not completed Ballotpedia's 2026 survey.
Sources: Community Impact, Q&A for US House District 31, Aug. 26, 2026, League of Women Voters of the Austin Area, 2026 general election voters guide, Office site, home page, Ballotpedia, John Carter (Texas)
Justin Early. Completed Ballotpedia's 2026 survey, answered Community Impact's primary and general election questionnaires and the League of Women Voters guide, and publishes issue pages.
Sources: Ballotpedia, Justin Early, Community Impact, Q&A for US House District 31, Aug. 26, 2026, League of Women Voters of the Austin Area, 2026 general election voters guide
Greg Stoker. Answered Community Impact's 2026 questionnaire and publishes campaign issue statements. Did not respond to the League of Women Voters guide or Ballotpedia's 2026 survey.
Sources: Community Impact, Q&A for US House District 31, Aug. 26, 2026, League of Women Voters of the Austin Area, 2026 general election voters guide, Ballotpedia, Greg Stoker
Roots in the constituency
Lives there, knows the people, and is funded by them.
John Carter. Practiced law in Round Rock and served 20 years as a Williamson County district judge; Round Rock is in the district. FEC by-state totals for 2025 to 2026 show about 38 percent of itemized individual contributions from Texas.
Sources: Office site, About, Community Impact, Q&A for US House District 31, Aug. 26, 2026, FEC contribution totals by state
Justin Early. Graduated from Leander High School in 1998, says he grew up in Leander, and lives in Georgetown; both are in the district. FEC by-state totals show about 89 percent of itemized individual contributions from Texas.
Sources: Ballotpedia, Justin Early, Williamson County Sun, July 28, 2025, Community Impact, Q&A for US House District 31, Aug. 26, 2026, FEC contribution totals by state
Greg Stoker. No public record found.
Management
Can build and run an organization.
John Carter. Campaign committee reports are on file with the FEC through June 30, 2026. No FEC administrative fine record found; a 2024 complaint (MUR 8275) was dismissed.
Sources: FEC candidate page, FEC administrative fines search, committee C00371203, FEC enforcement search, John Carter for Congress
Justin Early. Campaign committee reports are on file with the FEC through June 30, 2026. No FEC administrative fine record found.
Sources: FEC candidate page, FEC administrative fines search
Greg Stoker. Campaign committee reports are on file with the FEC through June 30, 2026. No FEC administrative fine record found.
Sources: FEC candidate page, FEC administrative fines search
What they deliver
Performance
Results
Turns ideas into outcomes.
John Carter. Legislative Effectiveness Score of 1.227 in the 118th Congress against a benchmark of 1.498, meets expectations. Sponsored H.R. 4366, enacted as the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2024, Pub.L. 118-42.
Sources: Center for Effective Lawmaking House dataset, 93rd to 118th Congress, GovTrack, H.R. 4366 (118th Congress)
Justin Early. No public record found.
Greg Stoker. No public record found.
Showing up
Does the basic work of the job.
John Carter. Missed 806 of 15,166 roll call votes, 5.3 percent, from January 2003 to September 2026.
Source: GovTrack, missed votes
Justin Early. No public record found.
Greg Stoker. No public record found.
Constituent service
Solves problems for the people they represent.
John Carter. Runs district offices in Belton (Bell County) and Georgetown (Williamson County) and takes casework requests online. No published casework totals were readable.
Source: Office site, home page
Justin Early. No public record found.
Greg Stoker. No public record found.
Coalition building
Wins support beyond their own faction.
John Carter. Lugar Center Bipartisan Index score of -0.74152 in the latest posted House scores (118th Congress, 2023), ranked 280 of 436.
Source: Lugar Center and McCourt School Bipartisan Index, House Scores
Justin Early. No public record found.
Greg Stoker. No public record found.
Stewardship of public money
Treats tax dollars as someone else's money.
John Carter. No public record found.
Justin Early. No public record found.
Greg Stoker. No public record found.
How to read this
Each criterion is scored 0 to 4 against the written rubric in the Ballot Standard. NR means no record: there is no reliable public evidence either way, so the criterion is left out and never counts against the candidate. A total is published when at least 8 of 15 criteria have evidence.
A sitting officeholder has a longer public record than a first-time candidate, so the two totals rest on different amounts of evidence. Read the count of criteria beside each score. Low marks require an official finding or a primary record. Allegations and opinion are not used.
No policy position is scored. Evidence checked October 6, 2026. Campaigns and readers can send a correction with a public source to tpg@thepoliticalgroup.com.
Questions
Who should I vote for in Texas's 31st Congressional District?
John Carter has the strongest record in Texas's 31st Congressional District. John Carter scores 60 out of 100 on the Ballot Standard, ahead of Justin Early at 59, as of October 6, 2026. John Carter's highest marks are relevant experience and command of the job. Justin Early's highest marks are roots in the constituency and communication. Greg Stoker (6 of 15 criteria) has too little public record to score. Every score comes from public records on character, qualifications and performance, the same way for every party.
Who is running in Texas's 31st Congressional District in 2026?
JOHN CARTER (Republican, incumbent), JUSTIN EARLY (Democratic), GREG STOKER (Green). The general election is November 3, 2026.
Is John Carter a good candidate for Congress?
John Carter scores 60 out of 100 on the Ballot Standard, with public evidence on 13 of 15 criteria: character 44 of 100, qualifications 80 of 100, performance 50 of 100. The standard measures character, qualifications and performance, not policy positions.
Is Justin Early a good candidate for Congress?
Justin Early scores 59 out of 100 on the Ballot Standard, with public evidence on 8 of 15 criteria: character 50 of 100, qualifications 65 of 100, performance no record. The standard measures character, qualifications and performance, not policy positions.
Is Greg Stoker a good candidate for Congress?
Greg Stoker has public evidence on 6 of the 15 Ballot Standard criteria, short of the 8 needed for a score. The evidence that exists is shown on the scorecard. No record never counts against a candidate.
How is the strongest record decided?
The candidate with the highest Ballot Standard score has the strongest record. Each of 15 criteria on character, qualifications and performance is scored 0 to 4 from public records and established reporting, the same way for every party. No policy position is scored, and unresolved accusations never move a score.
More on this race: every Texas race scored, the trailing candidate's path to victory, and the Texas 2026 election guide. Independent scorecard by The Political Group, not affiliated with any candidate or party.