The Americas: forecasts and odds

Elections, governments and crises across Latin America and Canada.

All the americas forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?37% Unlikely
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?46% Toss-up
Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?45% Toss-up

Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?

We give a 37 percent chance that the U.S. and Mexico conclude an interim USMCA agreement by December 31, 2026, as of September 26. The list of U.S. demands has shrunk from 54 to 14, but Washington's demand for 50 percent U.S. content in cars remains unresolved, and every earlier Mexico deal deadline passed without a deal.

Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?

37%

Unlikely

Closes Dec 31, 2026v1

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