The Americas: forecasts and odds

Elections, governments and crises across Latin America and Canada.

All the americas forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?34% Unlikely
Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?12% Very unlikely
Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?46% Toss-up

Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?

We now give a 34 percent chance that the U.S. and Mexico conclude an interim USMCA agreement by December 31, 2026, down from 37, as of October 12. The fourth negotiating round, expected in September, slipped into October with no confirmed date, eating into a short window while the autos tariff dispute stays open.

Will the U.S. and Mexico reach an interim USMCA trade agreement by the end of 2026?

34%

Unlikely

Closes Dec 31, 2026Down 3 pts

See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.