Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
We give Lula a 46 percent chance of winning Brazil's presidency as of September 26, 2026. Runoff polls show a statistical tie with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, and the biggest reason we sit just under even is history: in 2022 the final polls overstated Lula's runoff margin by about two points while his government's approval is now underwater.
Why it matters: The winner sets Brazil's stance toward Washington and Beijing, its climate and Amazon policy, and the tone of a trade relationship that American exporters, farmers and investors in Brazilian markets feel directly.
TPG forecast
46%
Toss-up
A coin flip, slight edge to Flavio Bolsonaro
Version 1: 46% (range 36% to 56%) · Kalshi 44%
Evidence cutoff Sep 26, 2026 · published Sep 26, 2026 · A coin flip, slight edge to Flavio Bolsonaro
This forecast is on its first version. Each update adds a point; old versions are never edited.
The numbers behind the call
47% to 45%
Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in Datafolha's runoff test, inside the 2-point margin of error[1]
42% to 41%
Flavio Bolsonaro's edge over Lula in Quaest's runoff test the same week[7]
43%
Lula government approval in September, down from 48 percent in July (Quaest)[3]
52 to 48
Quaest's final 2022 runoff poll for Lula; he actually won 50.9 to 49.1[2]
55%
of voters say they would never vote for Lula, versus 56 percent for Flavio[4]
What it means for you
U.S. exporters and importers
A Lula win likely continues a cool, transactional relationship with the Trump White House and closer ties to China and the BRICS bloc. A Flavio Bolsonaro win would likely bring a warmer political line to Washington and more room to settle tariff disputes.
Investors in Brazilian assets
Both campaigns are promising large household debt relief programs, so fiscal risk is on the table either way. Expect volatility in the real and in Brazilian stocks around October 4 and October 25 because the polls show a statistical tie.
U.S. farmers
Brazil is the main competitor to American soybean and beef exports, especially in China. Whoever wins shapes how aggressively Brazil courts Chinese buyers that U.S. growers are trying to win back.
Travelers and expats
A close result, as in 2022, raises the risk of contested-outcome protests in the weeks after the runoff. The 2022 runoff was decided by less than two points.
Climate and Amazon policy watchers
Lula's government has made deforestation enforcement a signature policy; a change of government would likely shift priorities toward agribusiness expansion.
The read
Three lenses, always in this order. How the method works.
01
Psychology
What do the decision makers need?
Lula is 80 and seeking a fourth term, and his campaign is behaving like an incumbent that knows approval alone will not carry him: the government is rolling out a large household debt buyback before the vote. That is a costly, visible bet on pocketbook relief, the lever that has historically moved Brazil's poorest voters, where Bolsa Familia recipients back Lula by roughly 56 to 30 in Quaest's data.
Flavio Bolsonaro needs to hold his father's base while persuading voters who dislike both men. His answer is to match Lula's debt relief with a promise of his own, which signals that his campaign reads the same pocketbook electorate. With 55 percent saying they would never vote for Lula and 56 percent saying the same of Flavio, both camps are fighting over a thin slice of persuadable voters, and turnout of each base, not conversion, is likely to decide it.
02
History
What happened the last times this came up?
Reference class: incumbent Brazilian presidents seeking a consecutive second term since the 1997 amendment allowed it. Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1998), Lula (2006) and Dilma Rousseff (2014) won; Jair Bolsonaro (2022) lost. That is 3 of 4, a strong incumbent prior, but Dilma won in 2014 by barely three points and Bolsonaro lost in 2022 by under two, so the class is dominated by close runoffs.
The closest analogue is 2022 itself, with the roles reversed: an incumbent with a loyal but capped base against a challenger who unites everyone who wants a change. It breaks in two places. First, Lula today has approval in the low to mid 40s, weaker than a typical winning incumbent. Second, Flavio Bolsonaro is not the polarizing figure his father was on the ballot, and Datafolha found the other conservative names test no better against Lula, which suggests the right's vote is anchored to the anti-Lula position rather than to one person.
03
Statistics
Base rate, adjustments, the number.
Start from the incumbent base rate of 3 in 4, about 0.75. Polls carry far more information 8 days out, so we weight them about 90 percent. The last week of runoff polls: Datafolha Lula +2, AtlasIntel Lula +0.3, BTG/Nexus Lula +1, Alfa tied, Quaest Flavio +1, Palver Flavio +3, Futura Flavio +5.7. The four most established houses average about Lula +0.6; all seven average about Flavio +0.9. We use roughly Lula +0.3.
Adjustment for known bias: Quaest's final 2022 runoff poll had Lula ahead 52 to 48 and he won 50.9 to 49.1, an overstatement of about 2.2 points on the margin, and first-round polls that year missed the right by more. We shift the margin about 1 point toward Flavio, to roughly Flavio +0.7. With a historical runoff error of about 4 points on the margin, that converts to about 0.44 for Lula. Blending 0.9 times 0.44 plus 0.1 times 0.75 gives about 0.47; a small deduction for approval running 44 to 50 against him lands us at 0.46. The regulated Kalshi market has Lula at 0.44, close to our number.
Between the lines
What people spent versus what they said, and what was left out.
Costly signal
In the final weeks the government launched a debt buyback program for families, and Flavio Bolsonaro answered with a much larger debt fund proposal of his own.
Both camps are spending political capital on the same pocketbook voter. When a challenger copies the incumbent's signature move instead of attacking it, he is conceding the issue matters and betting on trust, not on a different agenda. That keeps the race a referendum on who delivers relief.
What was left out
Datafolha tested the other conservative names as if they were the nominee and none beat Flavio's numbers against Lula.
This quietly ended the Liberal Party's argument about swapping candidates. The anti-Lula vote is a fixed bloc near 45 percent, so the runoff hinges on the few points of voters who reject both men.
Tone shift
Quaest's segment data shows evangelicals moving from 51 to 58 percent for Flavio while women moved toward Lula, 41 to 44.
Each base is hardening at the same time. That points to a turnout election, where the 2022 pattern of pollsters under-sampling right-leaning voters matters more than late persuasion.
Cheap talk
About 4 percent of voters in Datafolha's spontaneous question still name the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro, who is not on the ballot.
That is a reservoir Flavio can almost certainly collect by the runoff. It is one reason the markets lean his way even when topline polls show Lula narrowly ahead.
Our number after adjusting the base rate for what is different this time: 46%. It sits inside the historical interval.
Check our statistics yourself
- Reference class
- 3 of 4 (75%)
- Exact 95% CI (Clopper-Pearson)
- 19.4 to 99.4%
- Bayesian 95% credible (uniform prior)
- 28.4 to 94.7%
- Binomial test of our 46%
- p = 0.340
Our 46% sits inside the historical interval: the forecast is consistent with how cases like this have gone.
Reproduce in JASP (free, jasp-stats.org)
- Download base-rate.csv (one row per case in the reference class, outcome 1 or 0) and open it in JASP.
- Frequencies, then Binomial Test. Variable: outcome. Test value: 0.46. Tick Confidence interval. JASP reports the same p value and Clopper-Pearson interval shown here.
- Frequencies, then Bayesian Binomial Test, with a Beta(1, 1) prior. The posterior 95% credible interval matches ours.
Reference class: Computed by TPG from the four incumbent re-election bids since the 1997 amendment: 1998, 2006 and 2014 won, 2022 lost. Wikipedia's 2022 election article confirms Bolsonaro was the first incumbent to lose since the amendment.
Base rate
75%
of Brazilian presidents seeking a consecutive second term since 1997 won it (3 of 4)[5]
Computed by TPG from the four incumbent re-election bids since the 1997 amendment: 1998, 2006 and 2014 won, 2022 lost. Wikipedia's 2022 election article confirms Bolsonaro was the first incumbent to lose since the amendment. (n = 4)
Closest historical parallels
Brazil 2022 runoff, Lula vs Jair Bolsonaro (2022)
Alike: A polarized two-camp runoff with high rejection of both candidates and a statistical tie late in the race.
Outcome: The challenger, Lula, won 50.9 to 49.1, narrower than final polls suggested.
Where it breaks: In 2022 the incumbent was the right-wing candidate; now the incumbent is Lula, so the direction of poll error and incumbency advantage no longer point the same way.
Brazil 2014 runoff, Dilma Rousseff vs Aecio Neves (2014)
Alike: A Workers' Party incumbent with a weakening economy and approval near the midforties facing a united opposition.
Outcome: Rousseff won re-election by about three points.
Where it breaks: Rousseff had a larger Northeast turnout machine and the opposition candidate lacked a mass personal movement like Bolsonarismo.
How it could play out
Every path we see, sized by probability. Paths that resolve YES add up to our 46%.
- Flavio Bolsonaro wins the runoff No51%
He consolidates the remaining conservative vote and 2022-style poll error toward the right repeats.
- Lula wins the October 25 runoff Yes43%
Debt relief and Northeast turnout hold, the polls this time are unbiased, and Lula converts his first-round lead.
- Lula wins outright on October 4 Yes3%
Lula clears 50 percent of valid votes as minor candidates collapse and blank votes rise; markets price this at under 10 percent for any candidate.
- Another outcome No3%
Flavio wins outright in round one, a third candidate surges into the runoff, or a legal or health event changes the ballot.
What would change our number
Lula's first-round share on October 4 lands at 47 percent or higher with a lead of 5 points or more
+10 to +15 pointsFirst-round result shows the right outperforming final polls by 3 points or more, as in 2022
-10 pointsThird-place candidates such as Augusto Cury or Ronaldo Caiado endorse Flavio for the runoff
-3 to -5 pointsGovernment approval in Quaest or Datafolha climbs back above disapproval
+5 pointsTPG 46% vs Kalshi 44%
We are 2 points above the market, a meaningful agreement. Traders appear to price in a repeat of the 2022 polling miss; we do too, but only half of it, because pollsters adjusted their methods after 2022 and AtlasIntel, the most accurate house that year, now shows a dead heat rather than a Flavio lead.
Market price recorded September 26, 2026 from Kalshi. Analysis, not investment advice.
How this question resolves
Resolves YES if Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is declared the winner of Brazil's 2026 presidential election by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), either by taking more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round on October 4, 2026 or by winning the runoff on October 25, 2026. Resolves NO if any other candidate is declared the winner, or if Lula is not on the ballot for the deciding round.
Closes: October 25, 2026. Judged by: Official results published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE), confirmed by wire reports
Questions people ask
Who will win the Brazil election 2026?
+
As of September 26, 2026, the race between President Lula and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is a statistical tie in runoff polls. TPG gives Lula a 46 percent chance and Flavio Bolsonaro about 51 percent, with a small chance of another outcome. The slight lean to Flavio reflects the 2022 pattern, when final polls overstated Lula's runoff margin by about two points.
When is the Brazil election 2026?
+
The first round is Sunday, October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the top two candidates meet in a runoff on Sunday, October 25, 2026. Brazilians also elect 54 of 81 senators and all 513 federal deputies on October 4. Polls show no candidate near 50 percent, so a runoff is very likely.
What do the latest Brazil election polls say?
+
In the week to September 25, 2026, Datafolha had Lula ahead 47 to 45 in a runoff, AtlasIntel had him ahead 47.7 to 47.4, and Quaest had Flavio Bolsonaro ahead 42 to 41. Every gap is inside the margin of error. In the first round Lula leads Datafolha 40 to 36, so a runoff is expected.
Is Jair Bolsonaro running in 2026?
+
No. Former president Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running and is in prison after his conviction for attempting to overturn his 2022 defeat. His eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, is the Liberal Party's candidate and the main challenger to President Lula.
Sources
Every source is dated on or before the September 26, 2026 evidence cutoff. Nothing published later was used.
- [1]Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll. Al Jazeera and Reuters, Sep 25, 2026.
“Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off.”
- [2]Quaest Poll: Flavio Bolsonaro Edges Lula 42 to 41 in Runoff as Gap Halves. The Rio Times, Sep 22, 2026.
“had Lula on 52 and Jair Bolsonaro on 48. The count came in at 50.9 to 49.1.”
- [3]Quaest Poll: Flavio Bolsonaro Edges Lula 42 to 41 in Runoff as Gap Halves. The Rio Times, Sep 22, 2026.
“Quaest recorded approval falling from 48 percent in July to 43 percent in September, while disapproval climbed from 47 to 50.”
- [4]Quaest Poll: Flavio Bolsonaro Edges Lula 42 to 41 in Runoff as Gap Halves. The Rio Times, Sep 22, 2026.
“Some 55 percent would never vote for Lula, and 56 percent say the same of”
- [5]2022 Brazilian general election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“Bolsonaro became the first incumbent president to lose a bid for a second term since a 1997 constitutional amendment allowing consecutive re-election”
- [6]Datafolha Poll Shows Lula Leading Flavio Bolsonaro 40 to 36 as the Runoff Stays a Two-Point Tie. The Rio Times, Sep 25, 2026.
“Lula leads 36 percent to 27 percent, and 4 percent still name the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro, who is not on the ballot.”
- [7]Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll. Al Jazeera and Reuters, Sep 25, 2026.
“A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential run-off, versus 41 percent for Lula.”
Version history and integrity
Published forecasts are never edited. When the evidence changes we publish a new version beside the old one, each locked with a sha256 hash of its full contents. When this question resolves it is scored in public on our track record.
| Version | Cutoff | Forecast | Lock hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | Sep 26, 2026 | 46% Toss-up | c47f8616b161c2e0c1fea5ccf0510c9f270c235461441533027606f11c1ee3ea |
Download every forecast: JSON or CSV (CC BY 4.0). Public sources only. Analysis, not investment or legal advice.
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