Governments, security and economics across Asia and the Pacific.
| Question | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | 40% Unlikely |
| Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election? | 50% Toss-up |
We put the chance of a large, announced PLA exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027 at 40 percent. Beijing held seven such drills from 2022 to 2025 but none in 2026, as Xi courts Trump through summits and a trade truce. A released U.S. arms package or a Lai speech could end the pause quickly.
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
40%
Unlikely
As of September 26, 2026, Christopher Luxon is the slight favourite to be New Zealand's prime minister after the November 7 election, at 50 percent to Chris Hipkins's 42. The main reason is arithmetic: Labour has ruled out NZ First, so Hipkins needs four parties to govern, while Luxon's current coalition has more paths to 61 seats.
Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?
50%
Christopher Luxon
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.