Asia Pacific: forecasts and odds

Governments, security and economics across Asia and the Pacific.

All asia pacific forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?40% Unlikely
Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?47% Toss-up

Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

No material change: as of October 12 we still put the chance of a large, announced PLA exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027 at 40 percent. Beijing answered Lai's October 10 National Day speech with criticism, not a drill, and planned Trump and Xi meetings in November and December keep summitry in charge for now.

Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

40%

Unlikely

Closes Jun 30, 2027v2

Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?

As of October 12, 2026, New Zealand's next prime minister is a coin flip: Christopher Luxon 47 percent, Chris Hipkins 46. The three newest major polls split two to one in favour of a left bloc majority, and the deciding factor is whether the Opportunity Party, polling at or just under 5 percent, clears the threshold on November 7.

Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?

47%

Christopher Luxon

Closes Mar 31, 2027Down 3 pts

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