Asia Pacific: forecasts and odds

Governments, security and economics across Asia and the Pacific.

All asia pacific forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?40% Unlikely
Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?48% Toss-up

Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

No material change: as of October 12 we still put the chance of a large, announced PLA exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027 at 40 percent. Beijing answered Lai's October 10 National Day speech with criticism, not a drill, and planned Trump and Xi meetings in November and December keep summitry in charge for now.

Will China launch a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

40%

Unlikely

Closes Jun 30, 2027Update duev2

Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?

As of October 15, 2026, Chris Hipkins is the narrowest of favourites to be New Zealand's next prime minister at 48 percent, with Christopher Luxon at 45. The newest 1News-Verian poll has Opportunity at 8 percent and holding the balance of power, and Luxon has ruled out working with it, but Curia had Opportunity under the threshold.

Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?

48%

Chris Hipkins

Closes Mar 31, 2027Update dueDown 2 pts

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