Who will be New Zealand's prime minister after the 2026 election?
As of October 15, 2026, Chris Hipkins is the narrowest of favourites to be New Zealand's next prime minister at 48 percent, with Christopher Luxon at 45. The newest 1News-Verian poll has Opportunity at 8 percent and holding the balance of power, and Luxon has ruled out working with it, but Curia had Opportunity under the threshold.
Why it matters: New Zealand is a Five Eyes intelligence partner and a Pacific ally, and its next government will set its line on the AUKUS partnership, China, trade with the United States and Pacific security.
May be out of date. This forecast's evidence stops on October 15, 2026, 25 days ago. The desk reviews stale forecasts first; a new version will appear here when the evidence moves.
TPG forecast: most likely
Chris Hipkins
48%
A coin flip, Hipkins by a hair
Chris Hipkins48%
Christopher Luxon45%
Someone else4%
Nicola Willis2%
Chris Bishop1%
Kalshi prices Chris Hipkins at 45% on Oct 15, 2026
Our odds over timeTPG forecastMarket
Version 3: 48% (range 36% to 60%) · Kalshi 45%
Evidence cutoff Oct 15, 2026 · published Oct 15, 2026 · A coin flip, Hipkins by a hair
The field
Every contender, the odds, and the record on paper. Record facts are sourced; we forecast who is most likely to win, not who should.
The caseThree of the four most recent major polls give Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori and Opportunity a path to a majority, and he is the only leader willing to work with Opportunity.
The riskHe needs four parties to govern, and if Opportunity slips under 5 percent his path closes.
02Christopher LuxonNational
Prime Minister of New Zealand since 2023, MP for Botany
6 years in high office · elections 2 won, 0 lost
45%
Office
42nd prime minister since 2023; MP for Botany since 2020[9]
The caseHis partners ACT and NZ First are strong, and if Opportunity misses the 5 percent threshold, as in the early October Curia poll, the right bloc is likely to govern.
The riskHe has ruled out Opportunity, which holds the balance of power in the newest poll at 8 percent.
03Someone else
Any person not listed, including another National MP or a compromise figure after a hung parliament
4%
The caseWith both major parties below 30 percent and a possible hung parliament, an unusual outcome is more plausible than in most elections.
The riskNew Zealand's MMP system has always produced a government led by the leader of National or Labour.
04Nicola WillisNational
Deputy Leader of the National Party and Minister of Finance
8 years in high office
2%
Office
National deputy leader since 2021; Minister of Finance[11]
The caseAs deputy leader and finance minister she is the natural successor if National's caucus replaces Luxon.
The riskNational has never dumped a sitting prime minister around an election, and she is closely tied to the government's record.
The caseA senior cabinet minister with a strong profile in housing and infrastructure, he is regularly named as a future National leader.
The riskA leadership change would only happen after a poor result, and he would have to beat Willis for the job.
The numbers behind the call
28%
National and Labour, tied, in the 1News-Verian poll of October 8 to 12[17]
8%
for the Opportunity Party in the same poll, up a point and clear of the 5 percent threshold[18]
10
seats for Opportunity in that poll, enough to decide which bloc governs[19]
20%
for both Luxon and Hipkins as preferred prime minister in that poll[20]
2
one-term governments in New Zealand history, both Labour[8]
4.8%
Opportunity in the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll of October 1 to 5, under the threshold, with the right bloc on 65 seats[22]
What it means for you
U.S. national security
A second Luxon government would likely keep moving closer to the AUKUS technology pillar and to U.S. positions in the Pacific. A Hipkins government relying on the Greens and Te Pati Maori would likely be more cautious about AUKUS and about criticizing China.
U.S. exporters and importers
Both main parties support free trade, but a left-leaning coalition including the Opportunity Party could bring new taxes on capital and land that affect American investors in New Zealand.
American travelers and students
Little changes for visitors, but immigration and visa settings for students and skilled workers differ between the blocs, with the current coalition tightening some rules.
Investors in New Zealand assets
A hung parliament or long coalition talks, which the polls make possible, would add uncertainty for the New Zealand dollar and local markets into early 2027.
Both leaders have boxed themselves in with public promises. Winston Peters says NZ First won't do a deal with Labour, and Chris Hipkins ruled out NZ First in August. Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with the Opportunity Party and its leader Qiulae Wong, while Hipkins says his door is open to it. Those are costly signals: breaking them after the election would carry a large audience cost, and together they mean Opportunity's seats can only go one way.
That asymmetry now drives the race. Luxon's only path is for his bloc to win a majority on its own, which in practice means Opportunity missing the 5 percent threshold. Hipkins's incentive is to say little about Opportunity's demands and let the arithmetic work. With National and Labour tied on 28 percent and preferred prime minister tied on 20, neither leader has a personal edge to lean on; the smaller parties decide it.
02
History
What happened the last times this came up?
Reference class: New Zealand governments seeking a second term. Since 1935, only two governments have lasted a single term, both Labour, in 1957 to 1960 and 1972 to 1975. Counting the first-term governments since 1935 whose re-election bids have been decided, 2 of 11 lost, so a one-term ouster has a base rate of about 0.18. No National-led government has ever lost after one term.
The closest analogue is 2023 in reverse: a first-term government with a weak major party, a strong NZ First and a fragmented opposition. It breaks because the minor parties are unusually large and the governing party is the one losing share. Of the four major polls since late September, three give the left bloc plus Opportunity a majority, but two of those three are from the same pollster, 1News-Verian. RNZ-Reid Research had Opportunity at only 5.5 percent, and Taxpayers' Union-Curia had it at 4.8 percent, under the threshold, with National, ACT and NZ First on 65 seats. A first-term government has rarely faced polling this even this late.
03
Statistics
Base rate, adjustments, the number.
Version 2 put the right bloc's poll-based chance of forming a government at about 0.51. Since then one new major poll has landed, 1News-Verian taken October 8 to 12: National and Labour tied on 28 percent, Opportunity up to 8 percent and 10 seats, and the right bloc on 58 seats in a 125-seat House, short of the 63 needed. We weight it as one poll, not as a trend, because Verian has had Opportunity higher than other pollsters, while Curia had it at 4.8 percent and Reid Research at 5.5. The left's seat count in Verian also assumes Te Pati Maori wins four electorates on 0.4 percent of the party vote, which is a real but fragile path. We lower the right bloc's poll-based chance to about 0.48, our calculation.
Blend nine parts polls to one part base rate. On the incumbent's side that is 0.9 times 0.48 plus 0.1 times 0.82, about 0.51 for the right bloc, our calculation. Multiplying by about 0.92 for the chance National keeps Luxon and trimming for poll volatility leaves Luxon at 0.45 and another National leader at 0.04. The left bloc takes most of the rest; we give Hipkins 0.48 and leave 0.03 on other outcomes, our calculation. Our 0.48 for Hipkins is far above the 0.18 base rate for a one-term ouster, a deliberate departure: that base rate comes from elections in which the governing party polled far stronger, while National is tied with Labour at 28 percent and its bloc is short of a majority in three of the last four major polls. The move from version 2 is 2 points per leader, which is why we call it the narrowest of leads rather than a change of favourite on strong evidence.
Between the lines
What people spent versus what they said, and what was left out.
Costly signal
1News-Verian's October 8 to 12 poll has Opportunity at 8 percent and both blocs needing its 10 seats, while Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with the party.
Opportunity holds the balance of power but can only use it for one side. Unless Luxon reverses a public promise, an Opportunity party above 5 percent is close to a Hipkins government. That single fact is why we now put Hipkins narrowly ahead.
Tone shift
The same poll had Luxon and Hipkins tied on 20 percent as preferred prime minister, after Hipkins led by double digits in some September polls.
Hipkins's personal lead has faded even as his bloc's position improved. The contest is not about who voters like more; it is about whether the smallest party clears the threshold. That is why the major party numbers barely moved while our forecast did.
What was left out
Luxon has not softened his position on Opportunity as it has become pivotal in poll after poll.
Keeping the door shut means National's path runs entirely through Opportunity missing 5 percent. That single point of failure is why we keep a small share on another National leader making a different deal after the vote.
Cheap talk
Kalshi's New Zealand contracts are thinly traded, with Hipkins last at 45 cents and Luxon's bid and ask 62 cents apart.
The market is telling us little beyond a coin flip. Our call rests on the polls and the coalition promises, not on prices.
History vs the market vs our call
Our number after adjusting the base rate for what is different this time: 48%. It sits inside the historical interval.
Check our statistics yourself
Reference class
2 of 11 (18%)
Exact 95% CI (Clopper-Pearson)
2.3 to 51.8%
Bayesian 95% credible (uniform prior)
5.5 to 48.4%
Binomial test of our 48%
p = 0.068
Our 48% sits inside the historical interval: the forecast is consistent with how cases like this have gone.
Reproduce in JASP (free, jasp-stats.org)
Download base-rate.csv (one row per case in the reference class, outcome 1 or 0) and open it in JASP.
Frequencies, then Binomial Test. Variable: outcome. Test value: 0.48. Tick Confidence interval. JASP reports the same p value and Clopper-Pearson interval shown here.
Frequencies, then Bayesian Binomial Test, with a Beta(1, 1) prior. The posterior 95% credible interval matches ours.
Reference class: Computed by TPG from the 11 decided first-term re-election bids since 1935; The Spinoff's history confirms only two one-term governments, both Labour (1957 to 1960 and 1972 to 1975). Version 2 stated the same record from the incumbent's side (9 of 11 won); we restate it from the frontrunner's side because Hipkins now leads the field.
Base rate
18%
of first-term New Zealand governments since 1935 lost their re-election bid (2 of 11)[8]
Computed by TPG from the 11 decided first-term re-election bids since 1935; The Spinoff's history confirms only two one-term governments, both Labour (1957 to 1960 and 1972 to 1975). Version 2 stated the same record from the incumbent's side (9 of 11 won); we restate it from the frontrunner's side because Hipkins now leads the field. (n = 11)
Closest historical parallels
2023 New Zealand election (2023)
Alike: A first-term government facing a fragmented field, with NZ First as a potential kingmaker.
Outcome: National, ACT and NZ First formed a three-party coalition and Labour lost after two terms.
Where it breaks: In 2023 the right bloc had a clear lead; in 2026 the blocs are close to level and a fourth party, Opportunity, may decide the outcome.
1975 New Zealand election (1975)
Alike: The last time a government lost after one term.
Outcome: Robert Muldoon's National defeated the third Labour government in a landslide.
Where it breaks: That defeat came after a leader's death and an economic shock under a two-party system; MMP coalitions make wholesale swings less likely.
How it could play out
Every path we see, sized by probability. Paths where the frontrunner wins add up to 48%.
Four-party left government under Hipkins Yes48%
Opportunity clears 5 percent and Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori and Opportunity together reach a majority, as three of the four most recent major polls show.
National, ACT and NZ First return with Luxon as prime minister No45%
Opportunity falls below 5 percent or the right bloc reaches a majority on its own, and National keeps Luxon.
Right bloc governs under a new National leader No4%
A weak National result or a coalition demand, including a deal with Opportunity, leads the caucus to replace Luxon with Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop or another MP.
Other outcome No3%
A prolonged hung parliament, a new election or an unexpected coalition produces a different prime minister.
What would change our number
↓
The Opportunity Party falls below 5 percent in two major polls before November 7
-10 points for Hipkins
↓
The right bloc reaches a majority without Opportunity in two consecutive major polls
-8 points for Hipkins
↑
Opportunity publicly commits to supporting a Labour-led government
+5 points for Hipkins
↓
Luxon reverses his refusal to work with Opportunity
-8 points for Hipkins
↓
Public reports of a National caucus move against Luxon before election day
-8 points for Luxon, mostly to other National MPs
TPG 48% vs Kalshi 45%
Read from Kalshi's public market data on October 15, 2026: Hipkins last traded at 45 cents and Luxon at 43, but the book is thin, with Luxon's bid at 5 cents and ask at 67. We are 3 points higher on Hipkins because the newest major poll has Opportunity clear of the threshold and Luxon has ruled it out, which leaves his bloc needing a majority on its own; we stay close to the market because the Curia poll shows that path is still open.
Market price recorded October 15, 2026 from Kalshi. Analysis, not investment advice.
How this question resolves
Resolves to the person sworn in, or confirmed as continuing, as Prime Minister of New Zealand when the first government formed after the November 7, 2026 general election takes office. If no new government has been formed by March 31, 2027, resolves to whoever holds the office of prime minister on that date.
Closes: March 31, 2027. Judged by: New Zealand Government House and Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet announcements, confirmed by RNZ and wire reports
Questions people ask
Who will win the New Zealand election 2026?
+
As of October 15, 2026, it is a coin flip with Labour's Chris Hipkins a hair ahead: TPG gives him 48 percent and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon 45 percent to lead the government after the November 7 election. Three of the four newest major polls give the left bloc plus the Opportunity Party a majority, but the Curia poll has Opportunity under the 5 percent threshold, and Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity.
When is the New Zealand election?
+
New Zealand's general election is on Saturday, November 7, 2026. Voters cast a party vote and an electorate vote under the MMP system, and parties need 5 percent of the party vote or an electorate seat to enter Parliament. Coalition talks usually take several weeks after election day before a government is sworn in.
What do the latest New Zealand polls say?
+
The 1News-Verian poll taken October 8 to 12 has National and Labour tied on 28 percent, the Greens on 15, ACT and NZ First on 10 each and Opportunity on 8, with both blocs needing Opportunity's 10 seats. Earlier, RNZ-Reid Research had Opportunity pivotal, while the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll of October 1 to 5 had it just under the threshold and the coalition returning.
Will NZ First work with Labour?
+
Both sides say no. Winston Peters said in April that NZ First won't do a deal with Labour, and on August 11 Chris Hipkins formally ruled out NZ First from any government he leads. That means NZ First's seats count toward a Luxon-led coalition, and Hipkins needs Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori and the Opportunity Party together to govern.
Sources
Every source is dated on or before the October 15, 2026 evidence cutoff. Nothing published later was used.
“NZ First (10.6%), Act (9%) and Opportunity (5.5%).”
Version history and integrity
Published forecasts are never edited. When the evidence changes we publish a new version beside the old one, each locked with a sha256 hash of its full contents. When this question resolves it is scored in public on our track record.