Governments, coalitions and crises across Europe.
| Question | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027? | 20% Very unlikely |
| Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027? | 17% Very unlikely |
| Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? | 42% Toss-up |
| Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027? | 93% Almost certain |
We estimate a 20 percent chance a NATO member formally invokes Article 4 by June 30, 2027. Russian incursions are more frequent than ever, including a September 23 helicopter crossing into Poland, but no ally has requested Article 4 since September 2025, even after a Russian cruise missile landed 100 kilometres inside Poland.
Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027?
20%
Very unlikely
We put the chance of a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire taking effect by June 30, 2027 at 17 percent. Washington is reviving trilateral talks, but the Kremlin has rejected even a limited energy ceasefire and still demands Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. Short truces in 2026 lasted three days or less.
Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?
17%
Very unlikely
As of September 26, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 42 percent. She polls 33 to 36 percent in the first round and leads every tested runoff, but her 55 to 45 edge over Edouard Philippe is narrow, and French far-right candidates have lost all three runoffs they reached.
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
42%
Marine Le Pen
As of September 26, 2026, Andy Burnham is 93 percent likely to still be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027. He took office on July 20 with nominations from 94 percent of Labour MPs, leads rivals as best prime minister by 22 points, and no general election is due before 2029.
Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027?
93%
Andy Burnham
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.