Governments, coalitions and crises across Europe.
| Question | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027? | 20% Very unlikely |
| Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027? | 15% Very unlikely |
| Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? | 42% Toss-up |
| Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027? | 93% Almost certain |
No material change: as of October 12 we still put the chance a NATO member formally invokes Article 4 by June 30, 2027 at 20 percent. Drone strikes sank ships off Romania and in Bulgaria's Black Sea economic zone on October 5 and 6, killing two sailors, yet neither government made a formal request.
Will a NATO member invoke Article 4 by June 30, 2027?
20%
Very unlikely
We now put the chance of a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire taking effect by June 30, 2027 at 15 percent, down from 17, as of the October 12 cutoff. Time is running off the clock, Trump's October 11 energy ceasefire is a partial deal Moscow has not confirmed, and Ukraine reports Russian strikes on its grid continued.
Will a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire take effect by June 30, 2027?
15%
Very unlikely
As of September 26, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 42 percent. She polls 33 to 36 percent in the first round and leads every tested runoff, but her 55 to 45 edge over Edouard Philippe is narrow, and French far-right candidates have lost all three runoffs they reached.
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
42%
Marine Le Pen
As of September 26, 2026, Andy Burnham is 93 percent likely to still be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027. He took office on July 20 with nominations from 94 percent of Labour MPs, leads rivals as best prime minister by 22 points, and no general election is due before 2029.
Who will be UK prime minister on June 30, 2027?
93%
Andy Burnham
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.