Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

As of October 15, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 46 percent, up from 42. She polls 35 to 37 percent in the first round, leads Edouard Philippe 56 to 44 in Toluna Harris, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, whom she beats by about two to one, now often finishes second.

Evidence cutoff October 15, 2026Version 2 of 2By the TPG Forecast Desk, edited by Frank Carrasco, PhD#028f94bc30

Why it matters: France is a nuclear power, a permanent UN Security Council member and the EU's leading military force, so its next president will shape NATO, support for Ukraine, EU trade policy toward the United States and the stability of the euro.

May be out of date. This forecast's evidence stops on October 15, 2026, 25 days ago. The desk reviews stale forecasts first; a new version will appear here when the evidence moves.

TPG forecast: most likely

Marine Le Pen

46%

Le Pen is the clear favourite, short of even odds

Marine Le Pen46%
Edouard Philippe20%
Someone else11%
Jean-Luc Melenchon7%
Raphael Glucksmann6%

Kalshi prices Marine Le Pen at 44% on Oct 15, 2026

Our odds over timeTPG forecastMarket

Version 2: 46% (range 34% to 58%) · Kalshi 44%

Evidence cutoff Oct 15, 2026 · published Oct 15, 2026 · Le Pen is the clear favourite, short of even odds

The field

Every contender, the odds, and the record on paper. Record facts are sourced; we forecast who is most likely to win, not who should.

01Marine Le PenNational Rally

Deputy for Pas-de-Calais, three-time presidential candidate

22 years in high office

46%

First-round polling (Toluna Harris, Oct. 12): 35% to 37%[19]
Runoff vs Philippe (Toluna Harris, Sept. 28 / Oct. 12): 57-43 / 56-44[21]
Runoff vs Melenchon (Toluna Harris, Oct. 12): 67%[22]
Electronic tag: Not to be worn before the election, per a judicial source (July 9)[26]

The caseShe leads the first round by about 17 points, leads every tested runoff, and one of her two likeliest runoff opponents is Melenchon, whom she beats by about two to one.

The riskThe far right has never won a French runoff, and a united centre behind Philippe would face her in a closer contest.

02Edouard PhilippeHorizons

Mayor of Le Havre, Prime Minister of France 2017 to 2020

14 years in high office

20%

First-round polling (Toluna Harris, Oct. 12): 13% with Attal running, 17% as sole centrist, behind Melenchon in both[23]
First-round polling (Ifop-Fiducial, Oct. 12 to 14): 18% as sole centrist, ahead of Melenchon on 16%[30]
Runoff vs Le Pen (Toluna Harris, Oct. 12): 44% to 56%[21]
Offices: Prime Minister 2017 to 2020; Mayor of Le Havre[15]

The caseHe is the centrist best placed against Le Pen, and Ifop has him ahead of Melenchon for second place when he is the centre's only candidate.

The riskWith Attal also running he falls to 13 percent and behind Melenchon, missing the runoff.

03Someone else

Any candidate not listed, including Villepin, Zemmour, Lisnard, Bertrand or a late entrant

11%

The caseThe field is the largest in Fifth Republic history, and seven months leaves time for a surge like Macron's in 2017.

The riskNo other candidate currently polls near second place.

04Jean-Luc MelenchonLa France Insoumise

Leader of La France Insoumise, three-time presidential candidate

First-round polling (Toluna Harris, Oct. 12): 18% to 19%, second in every scenario[20]
Runoff vs Le Pen (Toluna Harris, Sept. 28): 31% to 69%[18]
2022 first-round result: 21.95%, third place[11]

The caseHe now reaches the runoff in every Toluna Harris scenario, and a low-turnout runoff could narrow the gap.

The riskHe trails Le Pen by more than 30 points in runoff polling, the worst head-to-head of any major candidate.

05Raphael GlucksmannPlace Publique

Member of the European Parliament, social-democratic primary winner

Social-democratic primary, Oct. 11: Won in the first round with 66.13%[27]
First-round polling (Toluna Harris, before the primary): 10% to 11%[28]

The caseThe primary win gives him a clear claim on the centre-left vote, and he polls better than Melenchon in a runoff against the National Rally.

The riskLa France Insoumise did not join the primary, so he still trails Melenchon for the left's runoff slot.

06Jordan BardellaNational Rally

President of the National Rally

Position: Party president, presumed substitute for Le Pen[14]
Mediapart reports, from Sept. 28: Linked to antisemitic messages from 2013; he denies them and the RN plans a defamation complaint[25]
Good president rating (Toluna Harris): 47%, against 51% for Le Pen[24]

The caseHe would inherit the National Rally vote if Le Pen were forced out.

The riskHe only runs if Le Pen is forced out, and the Mediapart affair has dented his image relative to hers.

07Gabriel AttalRenaissance

Former Prime Minister of France, General Secretary of Renaissance

First-round polling (Toluna Harris, Oct. 12): 5% to 12%[23]
Runoff poll vs Le Pen (Sept.): 44% to 56%[2]

The caseHe controls Macron's party machine and polls competitively against Le Pen in a runoff.

The riskHe trails Philippe for the centre's vote and never polls second.

08Bruno RetailleauThe Republicans

President of The Republicans, former Interior Minister

Nomination: Backed by more than 73% of party members[16]
First-round polling: About 8%, up to 10%[9]

The caseHe holds the traditional right's nomination and could consolidate conservative voters if Philippe falters.

The riskHe never polls above fifth place.

The numbers behind the call

57% to 43%

Le Pen's runoff lead over Philippe in Toluna Harris, September 28, firing our 12-point signpost[18]

56%

Le Pen against Philippe in the October 12 Toluna Harris wave[21]

35% to 37%

Le Pen's first-round range across five Toluna Harris scenarios, October 12[19]

18% to 19%

Melenchon, second in every scenario in the same poll[20]

51%

of French people say Le Pen would make a good president (47% for Bardella)[24]

30%

of runoff voters still undecided between the finalists, according to Odoxa[29]

What it means for you

U.S. national security and NATO watchers

A National Rally president, Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella, would likely be more skeptical of military aid to Ukraine and of deeper EU defence integration. A centrist such as Edouard Philippe would likely keep France's current line on Ukraine and NATO.

U.S. exporters and investors

The National Rally and the hard left both promise more spending and a tougher line on EU fiscal rules, which could widen French borrowing costs and move the euro. A centrist win would likely calm bond markets.

American companies in France

Tax, energy and trade policy toward U.S. tech and agriculture would shift depending on the winner, with protectionist instincts on both the far right and the far left.

Travelers and expats

A far-right or far-left win would likely bring large street protests in the weeks after May 2, as France saw after the 2024 snap legislative election.

The read

Three lenses, always in this order. How the method works.

Psychology

What do the decision makers need?

Le Pen needs to prove the 2027 race is hers, not her party's, and the last three weeks helped her do it. Mediapart's reports since September 28 linking Jordan Bardella to antisemitic messages from 2013, which he denies and the National Rally says it will answer with a defamation complaint, make a late handover to him less attractive. Toluna Harris found 51 percent of French people think Le Pen would make a good president against 47 percent for Bardella, a gap that did not exist in earlier waves. The person most damaged by the affair is her substitute, not her.

Voters in the runoff decide on rejection as much as preference, and the opponent matters more than the leader. The centre's problem is that Philippe and Gabriel Attal are still both running, which pushes Philippe down to 13 percent in scenarios that include Attal. The left's problem is that its primary did not unite it: Raphael Glucksmann won the social-democratic primary on October 11 with 66.13 percent, but La France Insoumise was not part of it, and Melenchon remains the left's strongest first-round candidate. Both camps are acting on their own incentives, and both choices help Le Pen.

History

What happened the last times this came up?

Reference class: Fifth Republic presidential runoffs since 1965. The first-round leader won 8 of 11. The exceptions (1974, 1981, 1995) all involved a runoff opponent who united a bloc larger than the leader's. That is the structure Le Pen faces, and it is now weaker than in September: a runoff against Melenchon, whom polls show losing to her by about two to one, does not give the anti-National Rally vote a candidate it can easily unite behind.

The closest analogue remains 2022, when Le Pen lost the runoff to Emmanuel Macron 41.45 to 58.55. It breaks because there is no incumbent in 2027 and she now leads every tested runoff. The cautionary analogue is still 1995, when Edouard Balladur led early and failed to reach the runoff. Six months is enough time for a centrist to consolidate, and Odoxa found about 30 percent of runoff voters still undecided between the finalists.

Statistics

Base rate, adjustments, the number.

Version 1 started from the first-round leader's base rate of 8 in 11, about 0.73, and landed at 0.42: about 0.85 that she is the candidate on the ballot, times 0.95 to reach the runoff, times about 0.53 to win it, minus a point. Two things changed. First, a signpost fired: Toluna Harris showed her ahead of Philippe 57 to 43 on September 28 and 56 to 44 on October 12, a lead of 12 points or more, which we had said would add 8 points. Second, Melenchon finished second in every scenario in the Harris wave published October 12, and Le Pen beats him with 67 percent in that poll. But that wave was fielded October 5 to 8, before Raphael Glucksmann won the October 11 social-democratic primary, in which La France Insoumise took no part, so it cannot show whether a second left candidate pulls Melenchon back below Philippe. Ifop's October 12 to 14 poll already has Philippe ahead of Melenchon, 18 to 16, when he is the centre's only candidate.

We also correct version 1. It treated the Court of Cassation and the electronic tag as the biggest wildcard, but France Inter reported on July 9, from a senior judicial source, that Le Pen would not wear a tag before the election in any case, because her appeal suspends that part of the sentence. Version 1 cited the court's timetable but not that report, and so overstated the chance of a forced switch. Defence briefs were due by October 15 and the court has said it will try to rule before the April 18 first round. We now put her chance of being the National Rally's candidate at 0.92.

Recomputed, our calculation: 0.92 for being the candidate, times 0.95 to reach the runoff, times about 0.63 to win it, weighting a Melenchon runoff at 0.38 with a win chance of 0.80, a Philippe runoff at 0.42 with 0.52, and other opponents at 0.20 with 0.55. That gives about 0.55. We do not take the full model number or the full 8-point signpost: the 12-point lead over Philippe comes from one pollster, Odoxa's much larger survey shows a closer race with about 30 percent of runoff voters undecided, and the Melenchon-second finding predates Glucksmann's primary win. We land at 0.46, our calculation, 4 points up from version 1 and 2 above Kalshi's 0.44. That sits below the 0.73 base rate for first-round leaders, a deliberate discount because a far-right candidate has never won a French runoff and polls six months out are noisy.

Between the lines

What people spent versus what they said, and what was left out.

Sequencing

Toluna Harris's October 12 wave, taken October 5 to 8 after Mediapart's first reports on Bardella, still had Le Pen at 35 to 37 percent in the first round and her runoff numbers almost unchanged.

The affair has not touched her vote, only her substitute's image. That removes the main downside scenario for the National Rally, a forced switch to a damaged candidate, without costing her anything she needs.

Costly signal

Glucksmann won the social-democratic primary on October 11 with 66.13 percent, and La France Insoumise did not take part.

The left now has two serious candidates instead of one. Our version 1 signpost for a united left did not fire; it moved the other way. Unless Glucksmann overtakes Melenchon, the left's runoff candidate is the one Le Pen beats most easily.

What was left out

Neither Philippe nor Attal has signalled any willingness to stand aside, even as Ifop shows Philippe at 18 percent and ahead of Melenchon only when he is the centre's sole candidate.

The arithmetic is public and both camps can read it. Their silence means the centre is betting on consolidating late. Until that happens, a Le Pen against Melenchon runoff, the matchup in which she wins by about 35 points, is close to as likely as a Le Pen against Philippe runoff.

Tone shift

Toluna Harris found 51 percent think Le Pen would make a good president, up 6 points since early summer.

Her image is improving while she sits on a 35-point first-round base. Rising personal ratings for a front-runner six months out are the opposite of what preceded Balladur's collapse in 1995.

History vs the market vs our call

Our number after adjusting the base rate for what is different this time: 46%. It sits inside the historical interval.

Check our statistics yourself

Reference class: 8 of 11 (73%)
Exact 95% CI (Clopper-Pearson): 39.0 to 94.0%
Bayesian 95% credible (uniform prior): 42.8 to 90.1%
Binomial test of our 46%: p = 0.127

Our 46% sits inside the historical interval: the forecast is consistent with how cases like this have gone.

Reproduce in JASP (free, jasp-stats.org)

Download base-rate.csv (one row per case in the reference class, outcome 1 or 0) and open it in JASP.
Frequencies, then Binomial Test. Variable: outcome. Test value: 0.46. Tick Confidence interval. JASP reports the same p value and Clopper-Pearson interval shown here.
Frequencies, then Bayesian Binomial Test, with a Beta(1, 1) prior. The posterior 95% credible interval matches ours.

Reference class: Computed by TPG from official first- and second-round results for the 11 runoff elections from 1965 to 2022; the first-round leader lost in 1974, 1981 and 1995.

Base rate

73%

of Fifth Republic presidential runoffs since 1965 (8 of 11) were won by the first-round leader[10][12]

Computed by TPG from official first- and second-round results for the 11 runoff elections from 1965 to 2022; the first-round leader lost in 1974, 1981 and 1995. (n = 11)

Closest historical parallels

2022 French presidential runoff, Macron vs Le Pen (2022)
Alike: Le Pen against a centrist in a runoff decided by the anti-National Rally vote.
Outcome: Macron won 58.55 to 41.45, a narrower margin than in 2017.
Where it breaks: There is no incumbent in 2027, and Le Pen now leads every tested runoff rather than trailing.
1995 French presidential election, Balladur vs Chirac (1995)
Alike: A clear poll leader months before the vote in a fragmented field.
Outcome: Balladur led Chirac 32 to 18 in January 1995 polls and failed to reach the runoff.
Where it breaks: Balladur's lead depended on a split within his own camp; Le Pen's base is more loyal and her lead is larger.

How it could play out

Every path we see, sized by probability. Paths where the frontrunner wins add up to 46%.

Le Pen runs and wins the runoff Yes46%
She reaches the runoff against Melenchon or a divided centre and wins on May 2.
Philippe unites the centre and wins the runoff No20%
Attal stands aside, Philippe finishes second ahead of Melenchon, and the republican front holds.
A left candidate wins No13%
Melenchon or Glucksmann reaches the runoff and draws enough centrist votes to beat the National Rally.
Someone else wins No11%
A candidate not yet leading, or a late entrant, surges in the final months.
Another centre or right candidate wins No6%
Attal or Retailleau overtakes Philippe as the leading non-RN candidate and wins the runoff.
Bardella substitutes for Le Pen and wins No4%
A court ruling or health event forces a switch and Bardella, despite the Mediapart affair, holds the National Rally vote.

What would change our number

↓

The Court of Cassation upholds the conviction and a judge orders the electronic tag before the first round

-10 points for Le Pen, most of it moving to Bardella

↓

Philippe moves ahead of Melenchon for second place across several pollsters

-4 points for Le Pen

↓

Attal withdraws and backs Philippe

-5 points for Le Pen, +8 for Philippe

↓

Le Pen's runoff lead over Philippe falls below 6 points in two pollsters

-6 points

↓

Glucksmann overtakes Melenchon in first-round polls

-3 points for Le Pen

TPG 46% vs Kalshi 44%

Read from Kalshi's public market data on October 15, 2026: Le Pen last traded at 44 cents, Philippe at 18, Melenchon at 11 and Bardella under 2. We are 2 points higher on Le Pen, within noise of the market, because a tag before the vote, the main legal risk, has been reported as off the table and her runoff leads have widened in Toluna Harris. Kalshi also prices David Lisnard at 13 cents, far above his polling, which we read as thin trading.

Market price recorded October 15, 2026 from Kalshi. Analysis, not investment advice.

How this question resolves

Resolves to the candidate proclaimed President of the Republic by France's Constitutional Council after the 2027 presidential election, scheduled for a first round on April 18, 2027 and a runoff on May 2, 2027. If the dates move, it resolves on the rescheduled election.

Closes: May 2, 2027. Judged by: Results proclaimed by the Conseil constitutionnel, confirmed by the French Interior Ministry and wire reports

Questions people ask

Who will win the French presidential election 2027?

As of October 15, 2026, TPG rates Marine Le Pen the most likely winner at 46 percent, followed by Edouard Philippe at 20 percent and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 7. Le Pen polls 35 to 37 percent in the first round and beats Philippe 56 to 44 and Melenchon with 67 percent in Toluna Harris runoff tests. Melenchon and Philippe are close for second place.

When is the 2027 French presidential election?

The first round is scheduled for Sunday, April 18, 2027. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday, May 2, 2027. President Emmanuel Macron cannot run because he has served two consecutive terms. The election could be held earlier only if the presidency fell vacant.

Can Marine Le Pen run in 2027?

Yes, as things stand. On July 7, 2026, the Paris appeals court upheld her embezzlement conviction but cut her ban from office to 45 months, with 30 suspended, which left her eligible. She declared her candidacy the same night and appealed to the Court of Cassation, which says it will try to rule before the April 18 first round. A senior judicial source told France Inter she will not wear an electronic tag before the election in any case.

Who is leading the French election polls?

Marine Le Pen of the National Rally leads every first-round poll, with 35 to 37 percent in Toluna Harris's October 12 wave. Second place is close: Harris had Jean-Luc Melenchon second in every scenario at 18 to 19 percent, while Ifop's October 12 to 14 poll has Edouard Philippe ahead of him, 18 to 16, when Philippe is the centre's only candidate. In runoff polls Le Pen beats Philippe 56 to 44 and Melenchon with 67 percent.

Will Jordan Bardella run for president instead of Le Pen?

Only if Le Pen is forced out, and that now looks less likely. She has declared and named Bardella, the National Rally president, as her intended prime minister. Since September 28, Mediapart has linked him to antisemitic messages from 2013, which he denies, and his image ratings now trail hers. We give Bardella a 4 percent chance of winning.

Sources

Every source is dated on or before the October 15, 2026 evidence cutoff. Nothing published later was used.

[1]Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll. Anadolu via A News, Sep 14, 2026.
“A Toluna Harris Interactive survey showed Le Pen getting between 33% and 36% of first-round voting intentions, depending on the scenario tested”
[2]Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll. Anadolu via A News, Sep 14, 2026.
“against former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal by 56% to 44%, and against Philippe by 55% to 45%.”
[3]Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll. Anadolu via A News, Sep 14, 2026.
“was backed by between 16% and 17% of respondents across the scenarios in which he was included.”
[4]Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll. Anadolu via A News, Sep 14, 2026.
“The survey puts her ahead of Melenchon by 67% to 33%”
[5]France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?. Connexion France, Sep 24, 2026.
“He is currently polling at between 17% to 19%, gaining votes from the centrist bloc”
[6]France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?. Connexion France, Sep 24, 2026.
“So far, he is the only candidate who has polled ahead of Ms Le Pen in a direct run-off.”
[7]France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?. Connexion France, Sep 24, 2026.
“He is currently polling between 10% and 13%, enough to place third or fourth but never second.”
[8]France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?. Connexion France, Sep 24, 2026.
“he fails to poll above 14%, often leaving him fourth and never second.”
[9]France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?. Connexion France, Sep 24, 2026.
“typically receiving around 8% of the vote share, but as much as 10% in cases where Mr Attal runs instead of Mr Philippe”
[10]2022 French presidential election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“Macron was re-elected with 58.55% of the vote to 41.45% for Le Pen in the second round of the election.”
[11]2022 French presidential election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“Jean-Luc Mélenchon La France Insoumise 7,712,520 21.95”
[12]1995 French presidential election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“he held an advantage of 14 points over Chirac (32% against 18% for the first round).”
[13]France's right-wing leader Marine Le Pen cleared to run in 2027 election, but under conditions she's rejected. CBS News, Jul 7, 2026.
“the appeals court reduced that time to 45 months, with 30 suspended and 15 to be served.”
[14]France's right-wing leader Marine Le Pen cleared to run in 2027 election, but under conditions she's rejected. CBS News, Jul 7, 2026.
“It was assumed that Le Pen would cede her presidential ambitions to her party's 30-year-old president, Jordan Bardella, if she was barred from standing.”
[15]2027 French presidential election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“Prime Minister of France (2017-2020); Mayor of Le Havre (2010-2017; 2020-present); Deputy (2012-2017)”
[16]2027 French presidential election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“with more than 73% voting in favour of backing Retailleau outright.”
[17]Le Pen says she'll run for French presidency next year despite court-ordered monitor. NPR, Jul 8, 2026.
“The highest court previously said it would be able to rule before the presidential election, with the first round in April”
[18]Presidentielle: Le Pen creuse l'ecart selon un sondage. La Gazette France (AFP), Sep 28, 2026.
“la cheffe des députés RN emporterait l'élection présidentielle avec 57% des voix si elle se retrouvait face au candidat Horizons Édouard Philippe (43%)”
[19]Presidentielle 2027 : un nouveau sondage place Marine Le Pen toujours largement en tete au premier tour, au cote de Jean-Luc Melenchon, malgre l'affaire Bardella. BFMTV via Yahoo Actualites, Oct 12, 2026.
“Entre 35% et 37% des Français attribueraient leur vote à la candidate RN, selon les cinq scénarios testés par Toluna Harris Interactive”
[20]Presidentielle 2027 : un nouveau sondage place Marine Le Pen toujours largement en tete au premier tour, au cote de Jean-Luc Melenchon, malgre l'affaire Bardella. BFMTV via Yahoo Actualites, Oct 12, 2026.
“Et dans toutes les configurations, Jean-Luc Mélenchon la rejoint dans un duel au second tour en obtenant 18% à 19% des suffrages.”
[21]Sondage 2027 : Marine Le Pen nettement favorite, loin devant Jean-Luc Melenchon au second tour quel que soit le scenario teste. Le Tribunal du Net, Oct 15, 2026.
“Si Édouard Philippe parvenait à se hisser au second tour, la candidate d'extrême droite l'emporterait avec 56 %”
[22]Sondage 2027 : Marine Le Pen nettement favorite, loin devant Jean-Luc Melenchon au second tour quel que soit le scenario teste. Le Tribunal du Net, Oct 15, 2026.
“Marine Le Pen s'imposerait très largement avec deux tiers des voix, soit 67 %”
[23]Presidentielle 2027 : un nouveau sondage place Marine Le Pen toujours largement en tete au premier tour, au cote de Jean-Luc Melenchon, malgre l'affaire Bardella. BFMTV via Yahoo Actualites, Oct 12, 2026.
“qui obtiendrait entre 13% des voix en cas de candidature simultanée de Gabriel Attal et 17% en cas de candidature unique du bloc central.”
[24]Presidentielle 2027 : un nouveau sondage place Marine Le Pen toujours largement en tete au premier tour, au cote de Jean-Luc Melenchon, malgre l'affaire Bardella. BFMTV via Yahoo Actualites, Oct 12, 2026.
“51% des Français estiment que Marine Le Pen ferait une bonne présidente de la République”
[25]Mediapart apporte de nouvelles preuves liant Jordan Bardella aux ecrits antisemites sur Messenger. Euronews, Oct 9, 2026.
“Son entourage a annoncé qu'une plainte en diffamation sera rapidement déposée.”
[26]Pourvoi en cassation de Marine Le Pen : dans tous les cas de figure, la candidate a la presidentielle ne portera pas de bracelet electronique avant le scrutin. Franceinfo, Jul 9, 2026.
“Dans tous les cas de figure, Marine Le Pen ne portera pas de bracelet électronique avant l’élection présidentielle de 2027”
[27]Raphael Glucksmann remporte des le premier tour la primaire a gauche. Franceinfo, Oct 11, 2026.
“la primaire de la gauche, avec 66,13% des voix, dimanche 11 octobre.”
[28]Presidentielle 2027 : un nouveau sondage place Marine Le Pen toujours largement en tete au premier tour, au cote de Jean-Luc Melenchon, malgre l'affaire Bardella. BFMTV via Yahoo Actualites, Oct 12, 2026.
“récolterait entre 10% et 11% des suffrages”
[29]Le Pen a 67% face a Melenchon selon trois sondages d'octobre 2026. Economie Matin, Oct 15, 2026.
“Environ 30% des électeurs du second tour restent indécis entre les deux finalistes, selon Odoxa.”
[30]Le Pen a 67% face a Melenchon selon trois sondages d'octobre 2026. Economie Matin, Oct 15, 2026.
“Si Édouard Philippe mène seul le bloc central, il obtient 18% au premier tour (sondage Ifop-Fiducial), réduisant l'écart avec Mélenchon à 2 points (16% pour Mélenchon).”

Version history and integrity

Published forecasts are never edited. When the evidence changes we publish a new version beside the old one, each locked with a sha256 hash of its full contents. When this question resolves it is scored in public on our track record.

Version	Cutoff	Forecast	Lock hash
v2	Oct 15, 2026	Marine Le Pen 46% frontrunner	028f94bc30d1ee8a0136d7ed8d8770fe86f282646b32b5f08c02e0b09a14bbca
v1	Sep 26, 2026	Marine Le Pen 42% frontrunner	387f3e24d6ed5eb661c462b748149c6c5f4d72da49c0696d9b65a2fdbbe541dc

Download every forecast: JSON or CSV (CC BY 4.0). Public sources only. Analysis, not investment or legal advice.

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