Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

As of September 26, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the most likely winner of France's 2027 presidential election at 42 percent. She polls 33 to 36 percent in the first round and leads every tested runoff, but her 55 to 45 edge over Edouard Philippe is narrow, and French far-right candidates have lost all three runoffs they reached.

Evidence cutoff September 26, 2026Version 1 of 1By the TPG Forecast Desk, edited by Frank Carrasco, PhD#387f3e24d6

Why it matters: France is a nuclear power, a permanent UN Security Council member and the EU's leading military force, so its next president will shape NATO, support for Ukraine, EU trade policy toward the United States and the stability of the euro.

TPG forecast: most likely

Marine Le Pen

42%

Le Pen is the favourite, not a lock

Marine Le Pen42%
Edouard Philippe24%
Someone else10%
Jordan Bardella6%
Jean-Luc Melenchon6%

Kalshi prices Marine Le Pen at 41% on Sep 26, 2026

Our odds over timeTPG forecastMarket

Version 1: 42% (range 30% to 54%) · Kalshi 41%

Evidence cutoff Sep 26, 2026 · published Sep 26, 2026 · Le Pen is the favourite, not a lock

This forecast is on its first version. Each update adds a point; old versions are never edited.

The field

Every contender, the odds, and the record on paper. Record facts are sourced; we forecast who is most likely to win, not who should.

01Marine Le PenNational Rally

Deputy for Pas-de-Calais, three-time presidential candidate

22 years in high office

42%

First-round polling (Harris Interactive, Sept.): 33% to 36%[1]
Runoff polls vs Philippe / Attal: 55-45 / 56-44[2]
2022 runoff result: 41.45%[10]
Appeal ruling, July 7, 2026: Ban cut to 45 months, eligible to run[13]

The caseShe leads the first round by double digits and every tested runoff, with a loyal base that has grown in each of her last three campaigns.

The riskThe far right has never won a French runoff, and a Court of Cassation ruling could put her under house arrest during the campaign.

02Edouard PhilippeHorizons

Mayor of Le Havre, Prime Minister of France 2017 to 2020

14 years in high office

24%

First-round polling: 17% to 19%[5]
Runoff polling: Only candidate to have polled ahead of Le Pen head to head[6]
Offices: Prime Minister 2017 to 2020; Mayor of Le Havre[15]

The caseHe is the centrist best placed to reach the runoff and the only candidate who has ever led Le Pen in a head-to-head poll.

The riskA split centre with Attal could leave him third behind Melenchon.

03Someone else

Any candidate not listed, including Villepin, Zemmour, Lisnard, Bertrand or a late entrant

10%

The caseThe field is the largest in Fifth Republic history, and seven months leaves time for a surge like Macron's in 2017.

The riskNo other candidate currently polls near second place.

04Jordan BardellaNational Rally

President of the National Rally

Position: Party president, 30 years old, presumed substitute for Le Pen[14]

The casePollsters have found he scores about the same as Le Pen, so a forced switch would not sink the National Rally's chances.

The riskHe only runs if Le Pen is forced out, and she has publicly committed to running.

05Jean-Luc MelenchonLa France Insoumise

Leader of La France Insoumise, three-time presidential candidate

First-round polling: 16% to 17%[3]
Runoff poll vs Le Pen: 33% to 67%[4]
2022 first-round result: 21.95%, third place[11]

The caseHe has a solid left base and reaches the runoff in three of five tested scenarios when the centre is divided.

The riskHe trails Le Pen by about 34 points in runoff polling, the worst head-to-head of any major candidate.

06Raphael GlucksmannPlace Publique

Member of the European Parliament, Socialist-backed primary candidate

First-round polling: 10% to 13%[7]

The caseIf he wins the October Socialist primary and the Greens and Communists join him, he could overtake Melenchon for the left's runoff slot.

The riskHe currently polls third or fourth and never second.

07Gabriel AttalRenaissance

Former Prime Minister of France, General Secretary of Renaissance

First-round polling: No higher than 14%[8]
Runoff poll vs Le Pen: 44% to 56%[2]

The caseHe controls Macron's party machine and polls competitively against Le Pen in a runoff.

The riskHe trails Philippe for the centre's vote and never polls second.

08Bruno RetailleauThe Republicans

President of The Republicans, former Interior Minister

Nomination: Backed by more than 73% of party members[16]
First-round polling: About 8%, up to 10%[9]

The caseHe holds the traditional right's nomination and could consolidate conservative voters if Philippe falters.

The riskHe never polls above fifth place.

The numbers behind the call

33% to 36%

Le Pen's first-round vote share across Harris Interactive scenarios in September[1]

55% to 45%

Le Pen's lead over Edouard Philippe in a hypothetical runoff, her closest matchup[2]

17% to 19%

Philippe's first-round range, the best of any non-RN candidate[5]

58.55%

Macron's share in the 2022 runoff against Le Pen[10]

32% against 18%

Balladur's January 1995 poll lead over Chirac, who went on to win[12]

What it means for you

U.S. national security and NATO watchers

A National Rally president, Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella, would likely be more skeptical of military aid to Ukraine and of deeper EU defence integration. A centrist such as Edouard Philippe would likely keep France's current line on Ukraine and NATO.

U.S. exporters and investors

The National Rally and the hard left both promise more spending and a tougher line on EU fiscal rules, which could widen French borrowing costs and move the euro. A centrist win would likely calm bond markets.

American companies in France

Tax, energy and trade policy toward U.S. tech and agriculture would shift depending on the winner, with protectionist instincts on both the far right and the far left.

Travelers and expats

A far-right or far-left win would likely bring large street protests in the weeks after May 2, as France saw after the 2024 snap legislative election.

The read

Three lenses, always in this order. How the method works.

Psychology

What do the decision makers need?

Le Pen needs to prove the 2027 race is hers, not her party's. After the July 7 appeal ruling reduced her ban and left her eligible, she declared within hours and promised a pairing with Jordan Bardella as her prime minister. That is a costly public commitment: it forecloses a quiet handover to Bardella unless a court forces it, and it ties her personal legal fight to the campaign. She has also said she will campaign without the electronic tag, betting that her appeal to the Court of Cassation suspends it.

Voters in the runoff decide on rejection as much as preference. In 2002, 2017 and 2022, a large share of voters backed whoever faced the National Rally, the so-called republican front. The centre's problem is that Philippe and Gabriel Attal are fighting each other, and each needs to reach the runoff first. The left's problem is the reverse: Jean-Luc Melenchon can make the runoff but loses badly to Le Pen in head-to-head polls, while Raphael Glucksmann polls better against her but struggles to finish second.

History

What happened the last times this came up?

Reference class: Fifth Republic presidential runoffs since 1965. The first-round leader won 8 of 11. The exceptions (1974, 1981, 1995) all involved a runoff opponent who united a bloc that was larger than the leader's. That is exactly the structure Le Pen faces: she leads the first round comfortably, but whether she wins depends on whether the anti-National Rally vote holds together.

The closest analogue is 2022, when Le Pen lost the runoff to Emmanuel Macron 41.45 to 58.55. It breaks in two ways: there is no incumbent in 2027, and her runoff polling has improved from losing in 2022 to leading by about 10 points against every tested opponent. A cautionary analogue is 1995: seven months out, Edouard Balladur led Jacques Chirac 32 to 18 in first-round polls and still lost, a reminder that early leads in French elections can reverse.

Statistics

Base rate, adjustments, the number.

Start from the first-round leader's base rate of 8 in 11, about 0.73. Le Pen is very likely to reach the runoff: she leads by at least 14 points in every scenario. But she must also be the National Rally's candidate on election day; given the pending Court of Cassation ruling and the electronic tag condition, we put that at about 0.85, with Bardella as the substitute otherwise.

For the runoff, recent polls show her ahead of Philippe 55 to 45 and Attal 56 to 44, but the far right has never won a French runoff and polling error seven months out is large, so we treat a runoff win as about 0.53. Multiply 0.85 times 0.95 for reaching the runoff times 0.53 and the result is about 0.43; a one-point deduction for the 1995-style risk of a late surge by a united centre gives 0.42. The regulated Kalshi market has Le Pen at 0.41, almost identical.

Between the lines

What people spent versus what they said, and what was left out.

Costly signal

Le Pen declared her candidacy on national television hours after the appeal ruling and named Bardella as her intended prime minister.

Announcing the ticket immediately closed off the easy exit of handing the nomination to Bardella. It raises the cost of any later switch, so a substitution now only happens if a court forces it, not by choice.

Sequencing

The Court of Cassation has said it can rule before the April election, and Le Pen says her appeal suspends the requirement to wear an electronic tag.

The timing of that ruling is the single biggest wildcard. A ruling that upholds the tag in early 2027 would put a candidate under house arrest in the final weeks, which is when a Bardella swap becomes most likely.

What was left out

Philippe and Attal are both declared centrist candidates, and neither has signalled any willingness to stand aside.

Every poll that shows Philippe as the only candidate who can beat Le Pen assumes a unified centre. As long as both run, Melenchon has a real path to the runoff, where polls show him losing to Le Pen by roughly two to one.

Personnel move

The Republicans nominated Bruno Retailleau without a primary, after which David Lisnard left the party and Xavier Bertrand announced an independent run.

The traditional right is splintered into several candidates polling in single digits. That leaves more of its voters available to Philippe in the first round and, in some cases, to Le Pen in the runoff.

History vs the market vs our call

Our number after adjusting the base rate for what is different this time: 42%. It sits inside the historical interval.

Check our statistics yourself

Reference class: 8 of 11 (73%)
Exact 95% CI (Clopper-Pearson): 39.0 to 94.0%
Bayesian 95% credible (uniform prior): 42.8 to 90.1%
Binomial test of our 42%: p = 0.062

Our 42% sits inside the historical interval: the forecast is consistent with how cases like this have gone.

Reproduce in JASP (free, jasp-stats.org)

Download base-rate.csv (one row per case in the reference class, outcome 1 or 0) and open it in JASP.
Frequencies, then Binomial Test. Variable: outcome. Test value: 0.42. Tick Confidence interval. JASP reports the same p value and Clopper-Pearson interval shown here.
Frequencies, then Bayesian Binomial Test, with a Beta(1, 1) prior. The posterior 95% credible interval matches ours.

Reference class: Computed by TPG from official first- and second-round results for the 11 runoff elections from 1965 to 2022; the first-round leader lost in 1974, 1981 and 1995.

Base rate

73%

of Fifth Republic presidential runoffs since 1965 (8 of 11) were won by the first-round leader[10][12]

Computed by TPG from official first- and second-round results for the 11 runoff elections from 1965 to 2022; the first-round leader lost in 1974, 1981 and 1995. (n = 11)

Closest historical parallels

2022 French presidential runoff, Macron vs Le Pen (2022)
Alike: Le Pen against a centrist in a runoff decided by the anti-National Rally vote.
Outcome: Macron won 58.55 to 41.45, a narrower margin than in 2017.
Where it breaks: There is no incumbent in 2027, and Le Pen now leads every tested runoff rather than trailing.
1995 French presidential election, Balladur vs Chirac (1995)
Alike: A clear poll leader months before the vote in a fragmented field.
Outcome: Balladur led Chirac 32 to 18 in January 1995 polls and failed to reach the runoff.
Where it breaks: Balladur's lead depended on a split within his own camp; Le Pen's base is more loyal and her lead is larger.

How it could play out

Every path we see, sized by probability. Paths where the frontrunner wins add up to 42%.

Le Pen runs and wins the runoff Yes42%
The Court of Cassation does not force her off the trail, and she beats a divided centre or Melenchon on May 2.
Philippe unites the centre and wins the runoff No24%
Attal or other centrists stand aside, Philippe finishes second, and the republican front holds.
A left candidate wins No11%
Melenchon or Glucksmann reaches the runoff and draws enough centrist votes to beat the National Rally.
Someone else wins No10%
A candidate not yet leading, or a late entrant, surges in the final months.
Another centre or right candidate wins No7%
Attal or Retailleau overtakes Philippe as the leading non-RN candidate and wins the runoff.
Bardella substitutes for Le Pen and wins No6%
A court ruling or the tag condition forces a switch, and Bardella holds the National Rally vote.

What would change our number

↓

The Court of Cassation upholds the ruling with the electronic tag before April

-15 points for Le Pen, most of it moving to Bardella

↓

Attal withdraws and backs Philippe

-5 points for Le Pen, +8 for Philippe

↓

The left unites behind one candidate after the October primaries

-3 points

↑

Le Pen leads Philippe by 12 points or more in runoff polls

+8 points

TPG 42% vs Kalshi 41%

We agree with the market within one point on Le Pen. We are higher on Bardella than traders are, at 6 percent against about 2, because the unresolved Court of Cassation appeal makes a late substitution a real possibility.

Market price recorded September 26, 2026 from Kalshi. Analysis, not investment advice.

How this question resolves

Resolves to the candidate proclaimed President of the Republic by France's Constitutional Council after the 2027 presidential election, scheduled for a first round on April 18, 2027 and a runoff on May 2, 2027. If the dates move, it resolves on the rescheduled election.

Closes: May 2, 2027. Judged by: Results proclaimed by the Conseil constitutionnel, confirmed by the French Interior Ministry and wire reports

Questions people ask

Who will win the French presidential election 2027?

As of September 26, 2026, TPG rates Marine Le Pen the most likely winner at 42 percent, followed by Edouard Philippe at 24 percent and Jordan Bardella, who would run only if Le Pen is forced out, at 6 percent. Le Pen leads first-round polls with 33 to 36 percent, but her runoff lead over Philippe is about 10 points and the far right has never won a French runoff.

When is the 2027 French presidential election?

The first round is scheduled for Sunday, April 18, 2027. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday, May 2, 2027. President Emmanuel Macron cannot run because he has served two consecutive terms. The election could be held earlier only if the presidency fell vacant.

Can Marine Le Pen run in 2027?

Yes, as things stand. On July 7, 2026, the Paris appeals court upheld her embezzlement conviction but cut her ban from office to 45 months, with 30 suspended, which left her eligible. She declared her candidacy the same night. She still faces a year under electronic monitoring, which she is appealing to the Court of Cassation, and that court has said it can rule before the election.

Who is leading the French election polls?

Marine Le Pen of the National Rally leads every first-round poll, with 33 to 36 percent in September Harris Interactive scenarios. The race for second place is between Edouard Philippe, at 17 to 19 percent, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, at 16 to 17 percent. In runoff polls Le Pen beats Philippe 55 to 45, Attal 56 to 44 and Melenchon 67 to 33.

Will Jordan Bardella run for president instead of Le Pen?

Only if Le Pen is forced out. She has declared and named Bardella, the 30-year-old National Rally president, as her intended prime minister. Pollsters have found the two score about the same, so a late switch would not sink the party's chances. We give Bardella a 6 percent chance of winning, reflecting the risk that the Court of Cassation ruling complicates her campaign.

Sources

Every source is dated on or before the September 26, 2026 evidence cutoff. Nothing published later was used.

[1]Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll. Anadolu via A News, Sep 14, 2026.
“A Toluna Harris Interactive survey showed Le Pen getting between 33% and 36% of first-round voting intentions, depending on the scenario tested”
[2]Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll. Anadolu via A News, Sep 14, 2026.
“against former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal by 56% to 44%, and against Philippe by 55% to 45%.”
[3]Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll. Anadolu via A News, Sep 14, 2026.
“was backed by between 16% and 17% of respondents across the scenarios in which he was included.”
[4]Le Pen maintains clear lead in 2027 French presidential race: Poll. Anadolu via A News, Sep 14, 2026.
“The survey puts her ahead of Melenchon by 67% to 33%”
[5]France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?. Connexion France, Sep 24, 2026.
“He is currently polling at between 17% to 19%, gaining votes from the centrist bloc”
[6]France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?. Connexion France, Sep 24, 2026.
“So far, he is the only candidate who has polled ahead of Ms Le Pen in a direct run-off.”
[7]France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?. Connexion France, Sep 24, 2026.
“He is currently polling between 10% and 13%, enough to place third or fourth but never second.”
[8]France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?. Connexion France, Sep 24, 2026.
“he fails to poll above 14%, often leaving him fourth and never second.”
[9]France 2027 presidential election polls: who could face Le Pen?. Connexion France, Sep 24, 2026.
“typically receiving around 8% of the vote share, but as much as 10% in cases where Mr Attal runs instead of Mr Philippe”
[10]2022 French presidential election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“Macron was re-elected with 58.55% of the vote to 41.45% for Le Pen in the second round of the election.”
[11]2022 French presidential election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“Jean-Luc Mélenchon La France Insoumise 7,712,520 21.95”
[12]1995 French presidential election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“he held an advantage of 14 points over Chirac (32% against 18% for the first round).”
[13]France's right-wing leader Marine Le Pen cleared to run in 2027 election, but under conditions she's rejected. CBS News, Jul 7, 2026.
“the appeals court reduced that time to 45 months, with 30 suspended and 15 to be served.”
[14]France's right-wing leader Marine Le Pen cleared to run in 2027 election, but under conditions she's rejected. CBS News, Jul 7, 2026.
“It was assumed that Le Pen would cede her presidential ambitions to her party's 30-year-old president, Jordan Bardella, if she was barred from standing.”
[15]2027 French presidential election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“Prime Minister of France (2017-2020); Mayor of Le Havre (2010-2017; 2020-present); Deputy (2012-2017)”
[16]2027 French presidential election. Wikipedia, Sep 26, 2026.
“with more than 73% voting in favour of backing Retailleau outright.”
[17]Le Pen says she'll run for French presidency next year despite court-ordered monitor. NPR, Jul 8, 2026.
“The highest court previously said it would be able to rule before the presidential election, with the first round in April”

Version history and integrity

Published forecasts are never edited. When the evidence changes we publish a new version beside the old one, each locked with a sha256 hash of its full contents. When this question resolves it is scored in public on our track record.

Version	Cutoff	Forecast	Lock hash
v1	Sep 26, 2026	Marine Le Pen 42% frontrunner	387f3e24d6ed5eb661c462b748149c6c5f4d72da49c0696d9b65a2fdbbe541dc

Download every forecast: JSON or CSV (CC BY 4.0). Public sources only. Analysis, not investment or legal advice.

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