Immigration and the border: forecasts and odds

Enforcement, legal immigration and the court rulings that set the rules.

All immigration and the border forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?62% Likely
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?8% Very unlikely

Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?

We put the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court grants the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The biggest reason: the same Court stayed an earlier version of this order 6-3 in June 2025, and the government has won most of its immigration emergency requests.

Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?

62%

Likely

Resolved YESv1

Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?

No material change as of our October 12 cutoff: we hold at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2027. In a TIME interview published October 1 he again declined to rule it out, but that is one more threat without action, and the Pentagon told a senator in writing it plans no troops at polls.

Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?

8%

Very unlikely

Closes Dec 31, 2026v2

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