Immigration and the border: forecasts and odds

Enforcement, legal immigration and the court rulings that set the rules.

All immigration and the border forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?62% Likely
Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?8% Very unlikely

Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?

We put the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court grants the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The biggest reason: the same Court stayed an earlier version of this order 6-3 in June 2025, and the government has won most of its immigration emergency requests.

Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?

62%

Likely

Closes Oct 31, 2026v1

Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?

We put the chance at 8% that President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027. The biggest reason: he has threatened to use it at least four times since 2020 without once following through, and his administration keeps building workarounds rather than taking that step.

Will President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops inside the United States before January 1, 2027?

8%

Very unlikely

Closes Dec 31, 2026v1

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