Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?
We put the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court grants the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The biggest reason: the same Court stayed an earlier version of this order 6-3 in June 2025, and the government has won most of its immigration emergency requests.
Why it matters: The ruling decides whether immigration authorities can quickly deport people with final removal orders to countries other than their own, without first hearing their claims that they would be tortured or persecuted there.
TPG forecast
62%
Likely
More likely than not, timing is the risk
Version 1: 62% (range 50% to 74%)
Evidence cutoff Sep 26, 2026 · published Sep 26, 2026 · More likely than not, timing is the risk
This forecast is on its first version. Each update adds a point; old versions are never edited.
The numbers behind the call
31
emergency rulings on administration actions since January 20, 2025[3]
23
of those rulings went for the administration at least in part[4]
25,000
people estimated deported to third countries since 2025[5]
70
people on a deportation flight DHS says it canceled after the ruling took effect[6]
15 days
minimum time the judgment gives people to seek to reopen their cases[2]
What it means for you
Immigrants with final removal orders
A YES ruling lets DHS send people to third countries with little notice. A NO ruling keeps the lower court's rules, including at least 15 days to seek to reopen their cases if they fear harm in the new country.
People already deported this way
One study estimates more than 25,000 people have been removed to third countries since 2025. The ruling will not bring them back, but it shapes whether their legal claims can still be heard.
DHS and ICE operations
The government says the lower court order forced it to cancel a flight carrying 70 people with criminal convictions to three countries. A YES ruling would let those flights and diplomatic deals resume.
Receiving countries
Countries that agreed to accept deportees from other nations, often in exchange for U.S. payments or concessions, would see transfers restart under a YES ruling.
Families and communities
Relatives of people with old removal orders, many of whom have lived in the U.S. for years, face a higher chance of sudden transfers to countries where they have no ties if the stay is granted.
The read
Three lenses, always in this order. How the method works.
01
Psychology
What do the decision makers need?
The six-justice majority has already invested in this case. In June 2025 it paused Judge Brian Murphy's injunction, and in July 2025 it took the unusual step of issuing a second opinion to say its order paused his rulings in full. Having rebuked the same trial judge once, the majority faces a credibility cost if it now lets a very similar set of requirements take effect without comment.
The administration has strong incentives to push hard and little reason to back down. Removals to third countries are central to its deportation numbers when home countries will not accept people, and the Solicitor General framed the order as depriving the government of an essential tool for removing some of the worst criminal aliens. Coming to the Court a third time in the same case is a signal it expects to win.
The counterweight is that this time the ruling under review is a final judgment affirmed after full briefing by a three-judge First Circuit panel, not a rushed preliminary injunction. Justices like Barrett and Kavanaugh have written that the emergency docket should weigh the likelihood of the Court eventually taking the case, and a narrow judgment that mainly requires notice and a chance to raise torture claims is harder to call plainly wrong.
02
History
What happened the last times this came up?
The reference class is the administration's immigration emergency applications decided by the Court since January 2025, as catalogued by the Brennan Center: the 2025 D.V.D. stay, Noem v. Doe (parole revocation), two Venezuelan TPS cases, the Syrian and Haitian TPS case, Noem v. Perdomo (immigration stops), Trump v. J.G.G. (Alien Enemies Act), Trump v. CASA (nationwide injunctions), Noem v. Abrego Garcia and Margolin v. National Association of Immigration Judges. The government won 8 of those 10.
The closest analogue is this case's own 2025 round. The government filed on May 27, 2025 and won a stay on June 23, 2025, 27 days later. The same timeline this year would put a ruling around October 21, inside our window.
Where the analogy breaks: in 2025 the Court was reviewing a nationwide preliminary injunction issued quickly, and it had just limited universal injunctions. Now it is reviewing a class-wide final judgment that an appeals court affirmed, and the judgment already gives the government more room than the 2025 injunction did. That makes a partial stay, rather than a full one, more likely than last time.
03
Statistics
Base rate, adjustments, the number.
Start from the base rate: the government won 8 of its 10 decided immigration emergency applications, or 0.80. Across all 31 administration emergency rulings the rate is 23 of 31, about 0.74. We take 0.80 as the probability the Court grants at least part of the stay once it rules, then trim it to 0.78 for the stronger posture of an affirmed final judgment.
Timing is the second factor. The response was due September 28, and October 31 is 37 days after filing. The 2025 round of this case took 27 days, but the Court sometimes asks for extra briefing or holds applications for weeks, as it did in the Illinois National Guard case. We put the chance of a ruling by October 31 at about 0.80.
0.78 times 0.80 is about 0.62. A denial or a ruling after the deadline accounts for the remaining 0.38.
Between the lines
What people spent versus what they said, and what was left out.
Costly signal
The government came to the Supreme Court for the third time in the same case, filing a 42-page application within a week of the First Circuit's ruling.
The speed and the choice to go straight to the justices, rather than seek rehearing, show the administration is confident of the majority's view and treats the flights as operationally urgent, not symbolic.
Sequencing
The First Circuit dissolved its own March 16, 2026 stay after ruling, which reactivated Murphy's judgment immediately and led DHS to cancel a flight.
The appeals court chose not to give the government time to seek Supreme Court review. That makes the government's irreparable harm argument concrete, which is often what tips a stay application.
Personnel move
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the circuit justice for the First Circuit, set a response deadline of September 28 but did not grant an immediate administrative stay.
Jackson dissented from the 2025 stay, so declining an administrative stay was expected. The Solicitor General hinted the full Court should step in if she would not, which sets up a full Court vote soon after briefing closes.
What was left out
The government's public framing stresses criminal aliens and canceled flights, and says little about the 15-day window to reopen cases that the judgment requires.
That gap suggests the government knows the notice requirement is the hardest part to attack on the merits. It points toward a possible partial stay that keeps some notice but lifts the rest.
Our number after adjusting the base rate for what is different this time: 62%. It sits inside the historical interval.
Check our statistics yourself
- Reference class
- 8 of 10 (80%)
- Exact 95% CI (Clopper-Pearson)
- 44.4 to 97.5%
- Bayesian 95% credible (uniform prior)
- 48.2 to 94.0%
- Binomial test of our 62%
- p = 0.336
Our 62% sits inside the historical interval: the forecast is consistent with how cases like this have gone.
Reproduce in JASP (free, jasp-stats.org)
- Download base-rate.csv (one row per case in the reference class, outcome 1 or 0) and open it in JASP.
- Frequencies, then Binomial Test. Variable: outcome. Test value: 0.62. Tick Confidence interval. JASP reports the same p value and Clopper-Pearson interval shown here.
- Frequencies, then Bayesian Binomial Test, with a Beta(1, 1) prior. The posterior 95% credible interval matches ours.
Reference class: Computed by us from the Brennan Center's Supreme Court shadow docket tracker, counting government-filed immigration applications decided since January 20, 2025: D.V.D. (2025), Noem v. Doe, two National TPS Alliance rulings, Mullin v. Doe, Noem v. Perdomo, Trump v. J.G.G. and Trump v. CASA for the government; Noem v. Abrego Garcia and Margolin v. National Association of Immigration Judges against it.
Base rate
80%
of the administration's decided immigration emergency applications (8 of 10) were granted at least in part[3]
Computed by us from the Brennan Center's Supreme Court shadow docket tracker, counting government-filed immigration applications decided since January 20, 2025: D.V.D. (2025), Noem v. Doe, two National TPS Alliance rulings, Mullin v. Doe, Noem v. Perdomo, Trump v. J.G.G. and Trump v. CASA for the government; Noem v. Abrego Garcia and Margolin v. National Association of Immigration Judges against it. (n = 10)
Closest historical parallels
Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. (first round) (2025)
Alike: Same parties, same judge, same third-country removal policy.
Outcome: Stay granted June 23, 2025 over three dissents, then clarified July 3 to cover all of Murphy's orders.
Where it breaks: Then it was a preliminary injunction; now it is an affirmed final judgment with narrower requirements.
Trump v. J.G.G. (2025)
Alike: Emergency application over deportation procedures and notice.
Outcome: Government won, but the Court said detainees must get notice and a chance to seek habeas relief.
Where it breaks: Shows the Court can side with the government while insisting on some notice, which is the heart of this case.
Noem v. Abrego Garcia (2025)
Alike: Emergency application in a removal case involving a man wrongly deported to a prison in El Salvador.
Outcome: Government largely lost; ordered to facilitate return.
Where it breaks: Involved an admitted error for one person, not a policy affecting thousands.
Trump v. Illinois (2025)
Alike: High-profile administration application where the Court took extra time.
Outcome: Denied about two months after filing, after supplemental briefing.
Where it breaks: Involved military deployment and a novel statutory question, where the Court had fewer prior signals.
How it could play out
Every path we see, sized by probability. Paths that resolve YES add up to our 62%.
- Full stay granted by October 31 Yes42%
Majority follows its 2025 order and pauses Murphy's judgment entirely while the government seeks review.
- No ruling by October 31 No22%
Court calls for supplemental briefing, treats the application as a petition for certiorari before ruling, or holds it past the deadline.
- Partial stay granted by October 31 Yes20%
Court lifts most requirements but keeps some notice, for example for people who have already raised fear claims.
- Stay denied by October 31 No16%
Roberts and Barrett or Kavanaugh defer to the First Circuit on a narrower final judgment.
What would change our number
The Court issues an administrative stay while it considers the application
+15 pointsThe Court requests supplemental briefing on a specific issue such as the 15-day reopening rule
-10 points on timing, raises partial stay oddsNo order by October 23, four weeks after the response
-15 pointsNew reports of deportees harmed in a receiving country
-5 pointsHow this question resolves
Resolves YES if, on or before October 31, 2026, the Supreme Court (the full Court, not an administrative stay by a single justice) grants the government's September 24, 2026 application in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. in whole or in part, staying the district court's judgment requiring notice and an opportunity to contest removal to a third country. Resolves NO if the Court denies the application, sets it for argument or further briefing without granting a stay, or has not acted by October 31, 2026.
Closes: October 31, 2026. Judged by: Supreme Court order list or docket for the D.V.D. application on supremecourt.gov, as reported by SCOTUSblog
Questions people ask
What is a third-country deportation?
+
A third-country deportation sends a noncitizen with a final removal order to a country that is not their own and not named in their order, often because their home country will not take them back. A federal judge ruled in February 2026 that DHS must first give notice and a real chance to raise fears of torture or persecution there.
Will the Supreme Court allow third-country deportations to resume?
+
The TPG Forecast Desk puts the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court pauses the lower court ruling, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The Court stayed an earlier order in the same case in June 2025, and the government has won 8 of 10 immigration emergency requests. The main risk is that the Court takes longer.
What is DHS v. D.V.D.?
+
Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. is a class action over the government's policy of deporting people to third countries. Judge Brian Murphy in Massachusetts ruled the policy unlawful, and the First Circuit largely upheld him on September 18, 2026. The government asked the Supreme Court for a stay on September 24, its third trip to the justices in the case.
How many people have been deported to third countries?
+
One study cited by Law Dork estimates more than 25,000 people have been deported to third countries since 2025. The government told the Supreme Court that thousands have been removed under the policy and thousands more remain eligible, and said it canceled a flight carrying 70 people after the lower court ruling took effect.
Sources
Every source is dated on or before the September 26, 2026 evidence cutoff. Nothing published later was used.
- [1]Trump administration again urges justices to allow deportations to third-party countries. SCOTUSblog, Sep 24, 2026.
“The 42-page filing was the third time that the Trump administration has asked the Supreme Court to intervene in the battle over third-country removals”
- [2]Trump administration again urges justices to allow deportations to third-party countries. SCOTUSblog, Sep 24, 2026.
“DHS must give them at least 15 days to seek to reopen their immigration proceedings”
- [3]Supreme Court Shadow Docket Tracker: Challenges to Trump Administration Actions. Brennan Center for Justice, Sep 25, 2026.
“Since January 20, 2025, the Supreme Court has issued 31 decisions on the shadow docket concerning administration actions”
- [4]Supreme Court Shadow Docket Tracker: Challenges to Trump Administration Actions. Brennan Center for Justice, Sep 25, 2026.
“23 ruled for the administration at least partially”
- [5]DOJ goes to SCOTUS to re-start rapid third-country removals. Law Dork, Sep 24, 2026.
“one study estimates that more than 25,000 people have been deported since 2025 using this process”
- [6]Trump administration asks Supreme Court again to allow expedited third-country deportations. JURIST, Sep 25, 2026.
“DHS said it canceled a flight carrying 70 people with criminal convictions to three countries”
Version history and integrity
Published forecasts are never edited. When the evidence changes we publish a new version beside the old one, each locked with a sha256 hash of its full contents. When this question resolves it is scored in public on our track record.
| Version | Cutoff | Forecast | Lock hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | Sep 26, 2026 | 62% Likely | 57c83e676617fab42fed3cbf15e19452cb7ec1414f987c3d365073ecd099371e |
Download every forecast: JSON or CSV (CC BY 4.0). Public sources only. Analysis, not investment or legal advice.
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