Middle East: forecasts and odds

War, diplomacy and governments across the Middle East.

All middle east forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?33% Unlikely
Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?75% Likely
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?62% Likely
Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?48% Toss-up

Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?

We now put the chance that annual CPI inflation reads 4.0% or higher in the November 2026 report at 33%, down from 45%, as of October 12. The biggest reason: AAA put gasoline at $4.36 on October 8, down from $4.48 in late September, and Trump pledged no strikes on Iran before the midterms, removing the main oil shock path.

Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?

33%

Unlikely

Closes Dec 10, 2026Down 12 pts

Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?

We now estimate a 62 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil by December 31, 2026, down from 68 percent, as of October 12. Trump pledged on October 8 not to attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, taking three weeks off the table, but the Pentagon has drafted strike options and the blockade continues.

Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?

62%

Likely

Closes Dec 31, 2026Down 6 pts

Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?

No material change: as of October 12 we still give Netanyahu a 48 percent chance of being Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027. Polls before the October 27 election still leave his bloc short of a Knesset majority, and the opposition is short too without Arab parties, so a deadlock that keeps him as caretaker remains his likeliest path.

Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?

48%

Toss-up

Closes Mar 1, 2027v2

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