War, diplomacy and governments across the Middle East.
We put the chance that annual CPI inflation reads 4.0% or higher in the November 2026 report, due December 10, at 45%, as of September 26. Gasoline near $4.49 and a rejected Iran peace plan push toward 4%, but core inflation is only 2.4% and fall gas prices usually ease, leaving this a near coin flip.
Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?
45%
Toss-up
We estimate a 75 percent chance the FY2027 defense authorization bill becomes law by December 31, 2026. The main reason: Congress has enacted an NDAA 65 years in a row, usually in December. The main risk: Senate Democrats blocked it 50 to 46 in July over the Iran war, and it has not moved since.
Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?
75%
Likely
We estimate a 68 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil again by December 31, 2026. The U.S. has not struck Iran ashore since early September and talks restarted, but the blockade, the closed strait and Trump's reported rejection of Iran's ceasefire plan leave the triggers for renewed strikes in place.
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?
68%
Likely
We give Netanyahu a 48 percent chance of still being Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027, as of September 26, 2026. His bloc polls about 49 to 54 seats, short of 61, but the opposition is also short without Arab parties. A deadlock would leave him as caretaker, which is why this is near a coin flip.
Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?
48%
Toss-up
See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.