Middle East: forecasts and odds

War, diplomacy and governments across the Middle East.

All middle east forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?33% Unlikely
Will the FY2027 defense bill (NDAA) become law by December 31, 2026?75% Likely
Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?63% Likely
Will Netanyahu still be Israel's prime minister on March 1, 2027?55% Toss-up

Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?

We now put the chance that annual CPI inflation reads 4.0% or higher in the November 2026 report at 33%, down from 45%, as of October 12. The biggest reason: AAA put gasoline at $4.36 on October 8, down from $4.48 in late September, and Trump pledged no strikes on Iran before the midterms, removing the main oil shock path.

Will U.S. inflation be 4% or higher in the November 2026 CPI report?

33%

Unlikely

Closes Dec 10, 2026Update dueDown 12 pts

Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?

We now estimate a 63 percent chance the U.S. or Israel strikes Iranian soil by December 31, 2026, up from 62 percent, as of October 15. Iran is attacking more ships to keep oil prices high before the midterms, and Trump promised "a number" on Iran, but he also says he promised Tehran restraint on its leaders.

Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?

63%

Likely

Closes Dec 31, 2026Update dueDown 5 pts

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