Will the U.S. or Israel strike Iranian territory again by December 31, 2026?

President Trump's record in this war is to strike when Iran threatens shipping or U.S. forces, then to describe the conflict as small and signal openness to a deal. On August 31 the U.S. hit rocket launchers on Larak Island it said were preparing to lay sea mines, and after Iran fired missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan it struck about 100 IRGC targets around the strait. That is a consistent enforce-then-talk pattern: he has not let an attack on shipping or U.S. forces go unanswered. He also reportedly rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal and expects the war to continue past the midterms, which lowers the political cost of more strikes rather than raising it.

Tehran's leadership, under a new Supreme Leader after the February strikes, needs the U.S. blockade lifted and cannot be seen to reopen the strait for nothing. It has paired a 60-day ceasefire road map with a four-to-five-day ultimatum and threats of continuous attacks, a mix that keeps the IRGC active at sea. Israel's government has framed the February strikes as one of its easiest decisions and says it is fighting on seven fronts; it has not struck Iran recently, but it has shown it will act on its own timeline when it sees a nuclear or missile threat rebuilding.

The reference class is this war's own record. Since fighting began on February 28, 2026, the longest stretch without U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iranian soil was the April 8 to July 8 ceasefire, about 91 days, and even that period saw violations by both sides before collapsing. The window in this question is 96 days. After the July collapse, strikes ashore came in July, again on August 31 after a month-long pause, and in the first week of September. Every roughly 30-day window since July 8 has contained at least one strike ashore.

The closest analogue is the 1987 to 1988 Tanker War, when U.S. forces escorting shipping in the Gulf struck Iranian platforms and naval units in response to mining and attacks on tankers, until Iran accepted a UN ceasefire in 1988. The pattern of mines leading to limited U.S. strikes matches today's Larak Island strike closely. It breaks because 1988 ended with an exhausted Iran accepting terms, while today Iran still holds the strait as leverage and the U.S. is running a blockade, which gives both sides reasons to keep testing each other.

Base rate: in every 30-day window since the July 8 ceasefire collapse there has been at least one U.S. strike on Iranian soil, and no stretch of the war without strikes has lasted as long as 96 days. Treating the monthly chance of at least one strike ashore as about 60 percent while no ceasefire is in force, three months gives 1 minus 0.4 cubed, or about 94 percent. That is the no-deal ceiling.

Adjustments: the chance a ceasefire is restored soon enough to cover most of the window is meaningful. Witkoff and Kushner met Araghchi on September 23, Iran tabled a 60-day ceasefire road map, and mediators report progress, but Trump reportedly rejected the proposal. We give about a 35 percent chance of a restored ceasefire by early November that then largely holds, and even then a 20 percent chance of a violation strike. So: 0.65 times 0.94 (no deal) plus 0.35 times 0.20 (deal) is about 0.61 plus 0.07, or 68 percent. Low Patriot interceptor stocks argue for U.S. restraint, which is why we do not go higher.