Supreme Court: forecasts and odds

Pending cases, likely rulings and what changes the day each decision lands.

All supreme court forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?62% Likely
Will the Supreme Court rule that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans, by July 3, 2027?74% Likely
Will the Supreme Court rule by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from voters who register with the state form?72% Likely

Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?

We put the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court grants the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The biggest reason: the same Court stayed an earlier version of this order 6-3 in June 2025, and the government has won most of its immigration emergency requests.

Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?

62%

Likely

Closes Oct 31, 2026v1

Will the Supreme Court rule that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans, by July 3, 2027?

We put the chance at 74% that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans. The biggest reason: four justices are already on record against these bans, and Roberts and Barrett joined the gun-rights majority in the Court's last Second Amendment case in June 2026.

Will the Supreme Court rule that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans, by July 3, 2027?

74%

Likely

Closes Jul 3, 2027v1

Will the Supreme Court rule by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from voters who register with the state form?

We put the chance at 72% that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that Arizona may require documentary proof of citizenship from voters using its state registration form. The biggest reason: five justices already let Arizona enforce that exact requirement in an August 2024 emergency order, and the Court took the case to review a ruling against it.

Will the Supreme Court rule by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from voters who register with the state form?

72%

Likely

Closes Jul 3, 2027v1

See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.