Supreme Court: forecasts and odds

Pending cases, likely rulings and what changes the day each decision lands.

All supreme court forecasts

QuestionOdds
Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?62% Likely
Will the Supreme Court rule that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans, by July 3, 2027?74% Likely
Will the Supreme Court rule by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from voters who register with the state form?75% Likely

Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?

We put the chance at 62% that the Supreme Court grants the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026. The biggest reason: the same Court stayed an earlier version of this order 6-3 in June 2025, and the government has won most of its immigration emergency requests.

Will the Supreme Court grant the Trump administration's request to pause the ruling blocking fast third-country deportations, in whole or in part, by October 31, 2026?

62%

Likely

Resolved YESv1

Will the Supreme Court rule that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans, by July 3, 2027?

No material change: as of the October 12 cutoff we hold at 74% the chance that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles. Argument is still set for December 2, four justices are on record against these bans, and Roberts and Barrett joined the June 2026 gun-rights majority.

Will the Supreme Court rule that the Second Amendment protects AR-15 rifles, striking down the Illinois and Connecticut bans, by July 3, 2027?

74%

Likely

Closes Jul 3, 2027v2

Will the Supreme Court rule by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from voters who register with the state form?

We now put the chance at 75%, up from 72%, that the Supreme Court rules by July 3, 2027 that Arizona may require documentary proof of citizenship from voters using its state form. As of the October 12 cutoff, this corrects our first version: the State of Arizona itself sought review, so a dismissal without a ruling is less likely.

Will the Supreme Court rule by July 3, 2027 that Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship from voters who register with the state form?

75%

Likely

Closes Jul 3, 2027Up 3 pts

See every forecast, how we forecast, and our track record.