Upset Brief · AR-01 · Terri Yarbrough Green (D) vs. Rick Crawford (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 43.7-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
98,070
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    7th Street Church Wmph (Crittenden County)
    Starting line Green +79. 3.0% split their ticket. About 276 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +87
  2. 02
    Precinct 50 (Pulaski County)
    Starting line Green +52. 3.1% split their ticket. About 304 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +67
  3. 03
    Precinct 51 (Pulaski County)
    Starting line Green +22. 2.5% split their ticket. About 568 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +64
  4. 04
    Civic Center (Crittenden County)
    Starting line Green +68. 3.1% split their ticket. About 180 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +56
  5. 05
    Cabot City Ward 2 (Lonoke County)
    Starting line Crawford +57. 3.8% split their ticket.
    +53
  6. 06
    Cabot City Ward 3 (Lonoke County)
    Starting line Crawford +53. 5.1% split their ticket.
    +52

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,727 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Crawford today.
    +3,727
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 3,894 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Green's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +483
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Green's way.
    +365

Plus a national shift of 43.7 points of margin (93,494 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Green wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Crawford.
  2. In 7th Street Church Wmph (Crittenden County) and Precinct 50 (Pulaski County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 43.7 points toward Green's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    679 precincts, R² 0.992, 126 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -117,965 to -68,698 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Green $11,958 cash on hand; Crawford $1,031,631.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    8,550 households, 25,651 dials, about 1,344 live conversations: an estimated $4,028 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,028 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Arkansas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arkansas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.