Where a dollar moves an Arkansas race.

Where

1. Pulaski County +15,232
   Starting line Shoffner +42. 10,882 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 30,350 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
2. Benton County +8,362
   Starting line Cotton +7. 8,121 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 29,230 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
3. Washington County +7,569
   Starting line Shoffner +19. 5,852 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 26,785 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
4. Saline County +3,451
   Starting line Cotton +19. 3,340 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 14,507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
5. Faulkner County +3,359
   Starting line Cotton +8. 3,169 persuadable voters leaning Cotton; 14,231 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 73% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +60,644
  70,792 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Cotton, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
• Mobilize +7,731
  At least 59,419 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Shoffner's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +2,412
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Shoffner's way.

What has to be true

1. Shoffner wins 43 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Cotton.
2. In the precincts Shoffner's side carries in Pulaski County and Washington County, 30 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 86 percent of what recent Arkansas results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  2,689 precincts, slope 0.956, R² 0.992, 492 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -78,928 to 87,269
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Shoffner $863,578 · Cotton $9,931,885
• Call program
  114,631 households, 343,892 dials, about 18,020 live conversations and 6,145 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 96 (Pulaski County) +196
   Starting line Jones +78. 12.6% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 68 (Pulaski County) +189
   Starting line Jones +24. 12.1% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 63 (Pulaski County) +172
   Starting line even. 12.7% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 80 (Pulaski County) +170
   Starting line Jones +37. 19.3% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 67 (Pulaski County) +162
   Starting line Jones +8. 15.5% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +7,739
  17,716 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Jones, plus the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
• Mobilize +1,662
  At least 35,052 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hill's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +378
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hill's way.

What has to be true

1. Hill wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Jones.
2. No national wave is required. The plan uses 44 percent of what recent Arkansas results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  408 precincts, slope 0.943, R² 0.992, 81 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -20,571 to 21,871
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Hill $2,967,541 · Jones $191,398
• Call program
  18,433 households, 55,300 dials, about 2,898 live conversations and 988 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. 7th Street Church Wmph (Crittenden County) +87
   Starting line Green +79. 3.0% split their ticket. About 276 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 50 (Pulaski County) +67
   Starting line Green +52. 3.1% split their ticket. About 304 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 51 (Pulaski County) +64
   Starting line Green +22. 2.5% split their ticket. About 568 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Civic Center (Crittenden County) +56
   Starting line Green +68. 3.1% split their ticket. About 180 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Cabot City Ward 2 (Lonoke County) +53
   Starting line Crawford +57. 3.8% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,727
  3,727 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Crawford today.
• Mobilize +483
  At least 3,894 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Green's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +365
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Green's way.

Plus a 43.7-point national shift (93,494 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Green wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Crawford.
2. In 7th Street Church Wmph (Crittenden County) and Precinct 50 (Pulaski County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 43.7 points toward Green's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  679 precincts, slope 0.976, R² 0.992, 126 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -117,965 to -68,698
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Green $11,958 · Crawford $1,031,631
• Call program
  8,550 households, 25,651 dials, about 1,344 live conversations and 458 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Fay 08 (Washington County) +86
   Starting line Ryerse +51. 5.5% split their ticket. About 286 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Fay 20 (Washington County) +82
   Starting line Ryerse +18. 7.1% split their ticket. About 641 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Fay 06 (Washington County) +78
   Starting line Ryerse +26. 7.5% split their ticket. About 235 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Fay 40 (Washington County) +76
   Starting line Ryerse +13. 7.5% split their ticket. About 618 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Fay 19 (Washington County) +73
   Starting line Ryerse +31. 6.7% split their ticket. About 280 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +6,484
  6,484 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Womack today.
• Mobilize +722
  At least 7,001 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ryerse's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +973
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ryerse's way.

Plus a 25.8-point national shift (60,772 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Ryerse wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Womack.
2. In Fay 08 (Washington County) and Fay 05 (Washington County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 25.8 points toward Ryerse's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  757 precincts, slope 0.959, R² 0.972, 150 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -88,372 to -33,414
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Ryerse $5,951 · Womack $2,404,276
• Call program
  15,698 households, 47,093 dials, about 2,468 live conversations and 842 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 110 (Pulaski County) +90
   Starting line Russell +72. 5.0% split their ticket. About 235 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Precinct 109 (Pulaski County) +72
   Starting line Russell +63. 4.7% split their ticket. About 221 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Precinct 92 (Garland County) +61
   Starting line Westerman +42. 5.5% split their ticket.
4. Precinct 111 (Pulaski County) +55
   Starting line Russell +76. 4.4% split their ticket. About 141 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Precinct 112 (Pulaski County) +53
   Starting line Russell +67. 5.3% split their ticket. About 146 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,901
  4,901 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Westerman today.
• Mobilize +886
  At least 4,665 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Russell's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +313
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Russell's way.

Plus a 39.6-point national shift (87,884 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Russell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Westerman.
2. In Precinct 110 (Pulaski County) and Precinct 109 (Pulaski County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 39.6 points toward Russell's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  837 precincts, slope 0.957, R² 0.992, 133 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -113,967 to -62,091
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Russell $907 · Westerman $4,668,447
• Call program
  10,600 households, 31,799 dials, about 1,666 live conversations and 568 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)