Arkansas · 5 federal races · 36 days left

Every Arkansas race. From the other side.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

Arkansas's congressional districts are the 2021 plan, unchanged for 2026. Arkansas does not allow write-in candidates.

Precinct returns come from the Secretary of State's official files and match the certified totals exactly. Arkansas does not publish ballots cast or registration by precinct, so precinct turnout is estimated from each county's official totals.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.
5
underdog plans, built from precinct returns
9,313
net votes: the closest upset in Arkansas (AR-02)
36
days until November 3. Early voting opens October 19.
Pick a race

5 plans. One question each.

Arkansas U.S. Senate · vs. incumbent
How Hallie Shoffner wins
67,416 net votes to find, most of them in Pulaski County and Benton County.
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AR-01 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Terri Yarbrough Green
98,070 net votes to find, most of them in 7th Street Church Wmph (Crittenden County) and Precinct 50 (Pulaski County).
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AR-02 · open seat
How French Hill wins
9,313 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 96 (Pulaski County) and Precinct 68 (Pulaski County).
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AR-03 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Robb Ryerse
68,951 net votes to find, most of them in Fay 08 (Washington County) and Fay 20 (Washington County).
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AR-04 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for James Russell
93,984 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 110 (Pulaski County) and Precinct 109 (Pulaski County).
See the path ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Arkansas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Arkansas 2026 election guide.