A long shot on the math: it takes a 29.2-point national wave.

1. 01
   Unincorporated Contra Costa County

   Starting line DeSaulnier +17. 2.7% split their ticket.
   +704
2. 02
   Danville

   Starting line DeSaulnier +20. 4.7% split their ticket.
   +549
3. 03
   Walnut Creek

   Starting line DeSaulnier +46. 2.9% split their ticket.
   +529
4. 04
   Concord

   Starting line DeSaulnier +33. 1.8% split their ticket.
   +411
5. 05
   San Ramon

   Starting line DeSaulnier +31. 2.1% split their ticket.
   +350
6. 06
   Lafayette

   Starting line DeSaulnier +48. 4.5% split their ticket.
   +322

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 95% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  3,807 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean DeSaulnier today.
  +3,807
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Frese's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Frese's way.
  +470

Plus a national shift of 29.2 points of margin (85,445 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Frese wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning DeSaulnier.
2. The national environment moves about 29.2 points toward Frese's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  751 precincts, R² 0.948, 294 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -118,940 to -52,038 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Frese no FEC totals reported; DeSaulnier $586,497.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  6,180 households, 18,540 dials, about 971 live conversations: an estimated $3,219 at published rates.