California · 42 federal races · election held November 3

Every California race. From the other side.

The election is over. 41 of 42 races are called so far, and no underdog won. Each plan below stays up as the record, with the result beside it.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

California's 2026 House elections use the Proposition 50 map approved by voters in November 2025; the precinct math here is re-aggregated onto those new lines from the California Statewide Database. There is no U.S. Senate race in California in 2026.

California's top-two primary put two Democrats in the November race in the 4, 7, 11, 12, 14, 29, 34 and 37 districts, two Republicans in the 40th, and a Democrat against a no-party-preference incumbent in the 6th. Party-line precinct math cannot model those contests, so they are not given plans here.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.

42

underdog plans, built from precinct returns

909

net votes: the closest upset in California (CA-13)

0

underdog wins out of 41 races called so far

Pick a race

42 plans. One question each.

CA-01 · open seat

What it would take for James Gallagher

25,384 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated Butte County and Unincorporated Tehama County.

Result: Mike McGuire won.

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CA-02 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Robin Littau

73,303 net votes to find, most of them in Redding and Unincorporated Shasta County.

Result: Jared Huffman won.

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CA-03 · vs. incumbent

How Robb Tucker wins

17,447 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated Placer County and Unincorporated Sacramento County.

Result: Ami Bera won.

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CA-05 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Michael Masuda

64,509 net votes to find, most of them in Modesto and Fresno.

Result: Tom McClintock won.

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CA-08 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Rudy Recile

77,484 net votes to find, most of them in Vacaville and Lodi.

Result: John Garamendi won.

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CA-09 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for John McBride

20,892 net votes to find, most of them in Stockton and Ripon.

Result: Josh Harder won.

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CA-10 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Jeff Frese

89,722 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated Contra Costa County and Danville.

Result: Mark DeSaulnier won.

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CA-13 · vs. incumbent

How Kevin Lincoln wins

909 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated Merced County and Ceres.

Result: Adam Gray won.

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CA-15 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Charles Hoelter

110,536 net votes to find, most of them in San Francisco and San Mateo.

Result: Kevin Mullin won.

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CA-16 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Peter Sundin Soulé

121,035 net votes to find, most of them in Palo Alto and San Jose.

Result: Sam Liccardo won.

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CA-17 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Ritesh Tandon

74,335 net votes to find, most of them in San Jose and Sunnyvale.

Result: Ro Khanna won.

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CA-18 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Shane Lewis

45,623 net votes to find, most of them in San Jose and Morgan Hill.

Result: Zoe Lofgren won.

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CA-19 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Peter Coe Verbica

94,345 net votes to find, most of them in San Jose and Unincorporated Santa Cruz County.

Result: Jimmy Panetta won.

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CA-20 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Sandra Van Scotter

79,673 net votes to find, most of them in Bakersfield and Unincorporated Kern County.

Result: Vince Fong won.

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CA-21 · vs. incumbent

How Kyle Kirkland wins

6,694 net votes to find, most of them in Fresno and Unincorporated Tulare County.

Result: Jim Costa won.

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CA-22 · open seat

How David G. Valadao wins

2,091 net votes to find, most of them in Bakersfield and Unincorporated Fresno County.

Result: Randy Villegas won.

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CA-23 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Tessa Lynn Hodge

39,030 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated San Bernardino County and Adelanto.

Result: Jay Obernolte leads, still counting.

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CA-24 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Bob Smith

57,623 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated Santa Barbara County and San Buenaventura (Ventura).

Result: Salud Carbajal won.

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CA-25 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Joe Males

11,221 net votes to find, most of them in Palm Desert and La Quinta.

Result: Raul Ruiz won.

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CA-26 · open seat

What it would take for Sam Gallucci

29,689 net votes to find, most of them in Thousand Oaks and Unincorporated Los Angeles County.

Result: Jacqui Irwin won.

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CA-27 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Jason Gibbs

14,869 net votes to find, most of them in Santa Clarita and Los Angeles.

Result: George Whitesides won.

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CA-28 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for April A. Verlato

55,588 net votes to find, most of them in Rancho Cucamonga and Pasadena.

Result: Judy Chu won.

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CA-30 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Scott Alan Meyers

108,602 net votes to find, most of them in Glendale and Los Angeles.

Result: Laura Friedman won.

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CA-31 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Eric Ching

18,354 net votes to find, most of them in Glendora and La Verne.

Result: Gil Cisneros won.

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CA-32 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Larry Thompson

64,067 net votes to find, most of them in Los Angeles and Simi Valley.

Result: Brad Sherman won.

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CA-33 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Stephanie M. Vargas

13,679 net votes to find, most of them in Redlands and Rancho Cucamonga.

Result: Pete Aguilar won.

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CA-35 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Mike Cargile

10,568 net votes to find, most of them in Norco and Chino Hills.

Result: Norma J. Torres won.

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CA-36 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Houston Brignano

104,867 net votes to find, most of them in Los Angeles and Manhattan Beach.

Result: Ted W. Lieu won.

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CA-38 · open seat

What it would take for Pedro Antonio Casas

15,263 net votes to find, most of them in Yorba Linda and Anaheim.

Result: Hilda Solis won.

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CA-39 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Steve Manos

12,369 net votes to find, most of them in Riverside and Moreno Valley.

Result: Mark Takano won.

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CA-41 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Mitch Clemmons

22,602 net votes to find, most of them in Whittier and Long Beach.

Result: Linda Sánchez won.

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CA-42 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Brian Burley

22,512 net votes to find, most of them in Huntington Beach and Newport Beach.

Result: Robert Garcia won.

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CA-43 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Cristian Morales

65,485 net votes to find, most of them in Los Angeles and Inglewood.

Result: Maxine Waters won.

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CA-44 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Genevieve Angel

46,074 net votes to find, most of them in Carson and Los Angeles.

Result: Nanette Diaz Barragan won.

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CA-45 · vs. incumbent

How Chuong V. Vo wins

4,669 net votes to find, most of them in Garden Grove and Westminster.

Result: Derek Tran won.

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CA-46 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for David Pan

21,132 net votes to find, most of them in Orange and Santa Ana.

Result: Lou Correa won.

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CA-47 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Jenny Rae Le Roux

17,609 net votes to find, most of them in Irvine and Unincorporated Orange County.

Result: Dave Min won.

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CA-48 · open seat

How Jim Desmond wins

6,322 net votes to find, most of them in Temecula and Unincorporated San Diego County.

Result: Marni von Wilpert won.

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CA-49 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Armen Kurdian

22,576 net votes to find, most of them in Carlsbad and San Clemente.

Result: Mike Levin won.

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CA-50 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Steve Cohen

38,527 net votes to find, most of them in San Diego and Unincorporated San Diego County.

Result: Scott Peters won.

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CA-51 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Ricardo Cabrera

41,238 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated San Diego County and San Diego.

Result: Sara Jacobs won.

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CA-52 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Jeff Belle

29,221 net votes to find, most of them in Chula Vista and San Diego.

Result: Juan Vargas won.

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Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the California 2026 election guide.