California · 42 federal races · 37 days left
Every California race. From the other side.
The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.
California's 2026 House elections use the Proposition 50 map approved by voters in November 2025; the precinct math here is re-aggregated onto those new lines from the California Statewide Database. There is no U.S. Senate race in California in 2026.
California's top-two primary put two Democrats in the November race in the 4, 7, 11, 12, 14, 29, 34 and 37 districts, two Republicans in the 40th, and a Democrat against a no-party-preference incumbent in the 6th. Party-line precinct math cannot model those contests, so they are not given plans here.
See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.
42
underdog plans, built from precinct returns
909
net votes: the closest upset in California (CA-13)
37
days until November 3. Mail voting opens October 5.
Pick a race
42 plans. One question each.
CA-01 · open seat
What it would take for James Gallagher
25,384 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated Butte County and Unincorporated Tehama County.
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CA-02 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Robin Littau
73,303 net votes to find, most of them in Redding and Unincorporated Shasta County.
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CA-03 · vs. incumbent
How Robb Tucker wins
17,447 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated Placer County and Unincorporated Sacramento County.
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CA-05 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Michael Masuda
64,509 net votes to find, most of them in Modesto and Fresno.
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CA-08 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Rudy Recile
77,484 net votes to find, most of them in Vacaville and Lodi.
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CA-09 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for John McBride
20,892 net votes to find, most of them in Stockton and Ripon.
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CA-10 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Jeff Frese
89,722 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated Contra Costa County and Danville.
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CA-13 · vs. incumbent
How Kevin Lincoln wins
909 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated Merced County and Ceres.
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CA-15 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Charles Hoelter
110,536 net votes to find, most of them in San Francisco and San Mateo.
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CA-16 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Peter Sundin Soulé
121,035 net votes to find, most of them in Palo Alto and San Jose.
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CA-17 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Ritesh Tandon
74,335 net votes to find, most of them in San Jose and Sunnyvale.
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CA-18 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Shane Lewis
45,623 net votes to find, most of them in San Jose and Morgan Hill.
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CA-19 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Peter Coe Verbica
94,345 net votes to find, most of them in San Jose and Unincorporated Santa Cruz County.
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CA-20 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Sandra Van Scotter
79,673 net votes to find, most of them in Bakersfield and Unincorporated Kern County.
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CA-21 · vs. incumbent
How Kyle Kirkland wins
6,694 net votes to find, most of them in Fresno and Unincorporated Tulare County.
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CA-22 · open seat
How David G. Valadao wins
2,091 net votes to find, most of them in Bakersfield and Unincorporated Fresno County.
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CA-23 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Tessa Lynn Hodge
39,030 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated San Bernardino County and Adelanto.
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CA-24 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Bob Smith
57,623 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated Santa Barbara County and San Buenaventura (Ventura).
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CA-25 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Joe Males
11,221 net votes to find, most of them in Palm Desert and La Quinta.
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CA-26 · open seat
What it would take for Sam Gallucci
29,689 net votes to find, most of them in Thousand Oaks and Unincorporated Los Angeles County.
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CA-27 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Jason Gibbs
14,869 net votes to find, most of them in Santa Clarita and Los Angeles.
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CA-28 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for April A. Verlato
55,588 net votes to find, most of them in Rancho Cucamonga and Pasadena.
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CA-30 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Scott Alan Meyers
108,602 net votes to find, most of them in Glendale and Los Angeles.
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CA-31 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Eric Ching
18,354 net votes to find, most of them in Glendora and La Verne.
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CA-32 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Larry Thompson
64,067 net votes to find, most of them in Los Angeles and Simi Valley.
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CA-33 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Stephanie M. Vargas
13,679 net votes to find, most of them in Redlands and Rancho Cucamonga.
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CA-35 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Mike Cargile
10,568 net votes to find, most of them in Norco and Chino Hills.
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CA-36 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Houston Brignano
104,867 net votes to find, most of them in Los Angeles and Manhattan Beach.
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CA-38 · open seat
What it would take for Pedro Antonio Casas
15,263 net votes to find, most of them in Yorba Linda and Anaheim.
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CA-39 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Steve Manos
12,369 net votes to find, most of them in Riverside and Moreno Valley.
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CA-41 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Mitch Clemmons
22,602 net votes to find, most of them in Whittier and Long Beach.
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CA-42 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Brian Burley
22,512 net votes to find, most of them in Huntington Beach and Newport Beach.
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CA-43 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Cristian Morales
65,485 net votes to find, most of them in Los Angeles and Inglewood.
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CA-44 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Genevieve Angel
46,074 net votes to find, most of them in Carson and Los Angeles.
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CA-45 · vs. incumbent
How Chuong V. Vo wins
4,669 net votes to find, most of them in Garden Grove and Westminster.
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CA-46 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for David Pan
21,132 net votes to find, most of them in Orange and Santa Ana.
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CA-47 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Jenny Rae Le Roux
17,609 net votes to find, most of them in Irvine and Unincorporated Orange County.
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CA-48 · open seat
How Jim Desmond wins
6,322 net votes to find, most of them in Temecula and Unincorporated San Diego County.
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CA-49 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Armen Kurdian
22,576 net votes to find, most of them in Carlsbad and San Clemente.
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CA-50 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Steve Cohen
38,527 net votes to find, most of them in San Diego and Unincorporated San Diego County.
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CA-51 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Ricardo Cabrera
41,238 net votes to find, most of them in Unincorporated San Diego County and San Diego.
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CA-52 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Jeff Belle
29,221 net votes to find, most of them in Chula Vista and San Diego.
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Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the California 2026 election guide.