Where a dollar moves a California race.

Where

1. Temecula +2,765
   Starting line Desmond +13. 2.3% split their ticket.
2. Unincorporated San Diego County +1,931
   Starting line Desmond +11. 2.2% split their ticket.
3. San Marcos +909
   Starting line von Wilpert +10. 1.8% split their ticket.
4. Unincorporated Riverside County +795
   Starting line Desmond +18. 1.3% split their ticket. About 21,984 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Indian Wells +239
   Starting line Desmond +19. 3.9% split their ticket. About 373 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +5,751
  16,382 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning von Wilpert, plus the 13 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
• Mobilize +744
  At least 40,170 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Desmond's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +143
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Desmond's way.

What has to be true

1. Desmond wins 18 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning von Wilpert.
2. In Unincorporated Riverside County and Indian Wells, 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 35 percent of what recent California results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  653 precincts, slope 1.010, R² 0.981, 119 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -18,974 to 19,220
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Desmond $1,230,031 · von Wilpert $825,012
• Call program
  16,704 households, 50,111 dials, about 2,626 live conversations and 895 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Bakersfield +453
   Starting line Villegas +4. 2.3% split their ticket.
2. Unincorporated Fresno County +415
   Starting line Valadao +32. 1.8% split their ticket. About 3,137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Unincorporated Tulare County +263
   Starting line Valadao +18. 1.7% split their ticket. About 3,382 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Shafter +247
   Starting line Valadao +20. 2.9% split their ticket. About 2,843 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Unincorporated Kern County +190
   Starting line Villegas +2. 2.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 93% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,102
  1,102 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Villegas today.
• Mobilize +791
  At least 10,252 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Valadao's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +193
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Valadao's way.

What has to be true

1. Valadao wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Villegas.
2. In Unincorporated Fresno County and Unincorporated Tulare County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required to win a tied race; the plan uses everything recent California results show is possible and reaches 99 percent of the cushion.
4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree); with the ratings and official results pointing opposite ways, the race is treated as a tie. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  565 precincts, slope 1.011, R² 0.954, 92 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -9,989 to 14,161
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Valadao $3,365,587 · Villegas $571,792
• Call program
  8,975 households, 26,924 dials, about 1,411 live conversations and 481 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Unincorporated Butte County +1,125
   Starting line Gallagher +31. 2.3% split their ticket. About 6,924 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Unincorporated Tehama County +918
   Starting line Gallagher +50. 2.8% split their ticket. About 3,838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Santa Rosa +499
   Starting line McGuire +48. 1.3% split their ticket.
4. Chico +447
   Starting line McGuire +19. 2.2% split their ticket.
5. Unincorporated Lassen County +410
   Starting line Gallagher +62. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,261 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 81% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,010
  3,010 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McGuire today.
• Mobilize +2,947
  At least 24,155 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Gallagher's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +525
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Gallagher's way.

Plus a 7-point national shift (18,902 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Gallagher wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McGuire.
2. In Unincorporated Butte County and Unincorporated Tehama County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 7.0 points toward Gallagher's side between now and November 3.
4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (none is a head-to-head between the two November finalists), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  981 precincts, slope 0.982, R² 0.992, 243 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -49,677 to 12,269
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Gallagher $332,899 · McGuire $152,606
• Call program
  21,856 households, 65,568 dials, about 3,436 live conversations and 1,172 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Unincorporated Placer County +1,528
   Starting line Tucker +19. 3.0% split their ticket. About 10,504 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Unincorporated Sacramento County +952
   Starting line Bera +17. 1.8% split their ticket.
3. Folsom +666
   Starting line Bera +1. 3.5% split their ticket.
4. Unincorporated Nevada County +502
   Starting line Tucker +2. 2.2% split their ticket.
5. Rancho Cordova +182
   Starting line Bera +10. 1.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 99% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,315
  3,315 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bera today.
• Mobilize +784
  At least 11,695 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Tucker's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +654
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Tucker's way.

Plus a 4.4-point national shift (12,694 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Tucker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bera.
2. In Unincorporated Placer County and Loomis, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 4.4 points toward Tucker's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  559 precincts, slope 1.004, R² 0.981, 169 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,004 to 21,131
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Tucker $16,000 · Bera $1,830,338
• Call program
  13,934 households, 41,801 dials, about 2,190 live conversations and 747 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Garden Grove +429
   Starting line Vo +2. 1.7% split their ticket.
2. Westminster +398
   Starting line Vo +9. 2.7% split their ticket.
3. Fullerton +366
   Starting line Tran +4. 3.3% split their ticket.
4. Cypress +242
   Starting line Vo +1. 2.3% split their ticket.
5. Fountain Valley +241
   Starting line Vo +8. 1.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,002
  2,002 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Tran today.
• Mobilize +5
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Vo's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +398
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 1.1-point national shift (2,264 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Vo wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Tran.
2. The national environment moves about 1.1 points toward Vo's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  401 precincts, slope 0.925, R² 0.893, 79 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -25,592 to 21,102
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Vo $74,876 · Tran $3,257,398
• Call program
  3,589 households, 10,767 dials, about 564 live conversations and 192 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Carlsbad +1,141
   Starting line Levin +11. 3.7% split their ticket.
2. San Clemente +1,097
   Starting line Kurdian +18. 3.4% split their ticket. About 8,780 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. San Diego +991
   Starting line Levin +22. 2.9% split their ticket.
4. Encinitas +678
   Starting line Levin +27. 3.9% split their ticket.
5. Unincorporated San Diego County +471
   Starting line Kurdian +11. 2.5% split their ticket.

The top 10 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,398
  4,398 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Levin today.
• Mobilize +716
  At least 13,327 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Kurdian's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +567
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Kurdian's way.

Plus a 5.7-point national shift (16,895 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Kurdian wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Levin.
2. In San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 5.7 points toward Kurdian's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  455 precincts, slope 0.971, R² 0.970, 115 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -51,737 to 17,888
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Kurdian $17,916 · Levin $1,418,237
• Call program
  16,384 households, 49,152 dials, about 2,576 live conversations and 878 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Fresno +530
   Starting line Costa +19. 1.4% split their ticket.
2. Unincorporated Tulare County +338
   Starting line Kirkland +29. 1.2% split their ticket. About 2,858 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Kingsburg +292
   Starting line Kirkland +44. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,510 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Unincorporated Fresno County +171
   Starting line Kirkland +7. 1.3% split their ticket.
5. Visalia +88
   Starting line Kirkland +6. 1.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 97% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,075
  1,075 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Costa today.
• Mobilize +509
  At least 4,368 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Kirkland's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +231
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Kirkland's way.

Plus a 3.7-point national shift (4,878 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Kirkland wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Costa.
2. In Unincorporated Tulare County and Kingsburg, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 3.7 points toward Kirkland's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  411 precincts, slope 1.028, R² 0.982, 67 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -19,875 to 10,402
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Kirkland $17,934 · Costa $938,779
• Call program
  4,953 households, 14,860 dials, about 779 live conversations and 266 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Huntington Beach +2,216
   Starting line Burley +12. 2.2% split their ticket. About 27,845 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Newport Beach +1,244
   Starting line Burley +23. 3.7% split their ticket. About 8,231 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Long Beach +820
   Starting line Garcia +41. 1.6% split their ticket.
4. Costa Mesa +444
   Starting line Garcia +3. 2.1% split their ticket.
5. Seal Beach +185
   Starting line Garcia +1. 3.1% split their ticket.

The top 10 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,780
  2,780 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Garcia today.
• Mobilize +1,737
  At least 36,076 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Burley's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +494
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Burley's way.

Plus a 6.8-point national shift (17,501 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Burley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Garcia.
2. In Huntington Beach and Newport Beach, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 6.8 points toward Burley's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  344 precincts, slope 1.025, R² 0.989, 94 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,314 to 12,286
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Burley $5,509 · Garcia $1,381,467
• Call program
  29,703 households, 89,108 dials, about 4,669 live conversations and 1,592 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Irvine +868
   Starting line Min +20. 1.5% split their ticket.
2. Unincorporated Orange County +495
   Starting line Le Roux +14. 4.4% split their ticket. About 3,602 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Laguna Niguel +439
   Starting line Le Roux +4. 2.5% split their ticket.
4. Lake Forest +423
   Starting line even. 2.2% split their ticket.
5. Newport Beach +409
   Starting line Le Roux +20. 3.8% split their ticket. About 2,883 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,023
  3,023 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Min today.
• Mobilize +349
  At least 6,485 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Le Roux's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +630
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Le Roux's way.

Plus a 5.1-point national shift (13,607 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Le Roux wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Min.
2. In Newport Beach and Unincorporated Orange County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 5.1 points toward Le Roux's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  375 precincts, slope 1.054, R² 0.973, 100 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -44,244 to 17,570
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Le Roux $128,533 · Min $1,889,360
• Call program
  9,889 households, 29,667 dials, about 1,555 live conversations and 530 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Unincorporated Merced County +384
   Starting line Lincoln +26. 1.4% split their ticket. About 9,725 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Ceres +124
   Starting line Gray +1. 2.4% split their ticket.
3. Lathrop +80
   Starting line Gray +15. 2.5% split their ticket.
4. Unincorporated Madera County +79
   Starting line Lincoln +26. 0.6% split their ticket. About 895 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Unincorporated San Joaquin County +62
   Starting line even. 2.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +415
  1,230 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gray today.
• Mobilize +458
  At least 18,295 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Lincoln's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +82
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Lincoln's way.

What has to be true

1. Lincoln wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gray.
2. In Unincorporated Merced County and Unincorporated Madera County, 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 34 percent of what recent California results show is possible.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  877 precincts, slope 1.036, R² 0.969, 126 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -14,726 to 14,900
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Lincoln $837,885 · Gray $2,072,111
• Call program
  4,321 households, 12,964 dials, about 679 live conversations and 232 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Palm Desert +274
   Starting line Ruiz +6. 2.4% split their ticket.
2. La Quinta +218
   Starting line Males +4. 2.5% split their ticket.
3. Imperial +217
   Starting line Males +14. 1.4% split their ticket. About 4,104 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Unincorporated Imperial County +180
   Starting line Males +13. 1.0% split their ticket. About 3,460 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Unincorporated Riverside County +158
   Starting line even. 1.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 90% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,273
  1,273 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ruiz today.
• Mobilize +326
  At least 7,564 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Males's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +258
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Males's way.

Plus a 5.3-point national shift (9,364 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Males wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ruiz.
2. In Imperial and Unincorporated Imperial County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 5.3 points toward Males's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  568 precincts, slope 0.990, R² 0.966, 102 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -30,040 to 10,992
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Males $14,847 · Ruiz $2,556,494
• Call program
  7,485 households, 22,455 dials, about 1,177 live conversations and 401 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Norco +637
   Starting line Cargile +47. 1.7% split their ticket. About 3,401 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Chino Hills +352
   Starting line Cargile +8. 2.4% split their ticket.
3. Claremont +187
   Starting line Torres +33. 2.3% split their ticket.
4. Ontario +146
   Starting line Torres +11. 0.6% split their ticket.
5. Fontana +122
   Starting line Torres +20. 1.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +955
  955 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Torres today.
• Mobilize +548
  At least 3,404 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Cargile's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +302
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Cargile's way.

Plus a 5.7-point national shift (8,763 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Cargile wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Torres.
2. In Norco, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 5.7 points toward Cargile's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  350 precincts, slope 1.010, R² 0.969, 69 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -26,479 to 9,049
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Cargile $2,873 · Torres $339,247
• Call program
  4,263 households, 12,788 dials, about 670 live conversations and 228 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Yorba Linda +1,498
   Starting line Casas +27. 3.3% split their ticket. About 9,855 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Anaheim +314
   Starting line Casas +14. 2.6% split their ticket. About 3,862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Unincorporated Los Angeles County +245
   Starting line Solis +16. 0.9% split their ticket.
4. Diamond Bar +167
   Starting line Solis +5. 1.7% split their ticket.
5. La Habra Heights +107
   Starting line Casas +22. 4.2% split their ticket. About 715 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,475
  1,475 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Solis today.
• Mobilize +1,148
  At least 14,876 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Casas's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +351
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Casas's way.

Plus a 7.5-point national shift (12,289 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Casas wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Solis.
2. In Yorba Linda and Anaheim, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 7.5 points toward Casas's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  305 precincts, slope 1.081, R² 0.986, 80 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -31,302 to 6,877
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Casas n/a · Solis $154,503
• Call program
  12,992 households, 38,976 dials, about 2,042 live conversations and 696 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Santa Clarita +830
   Starting line Gibbs +1. 1.8% split their ticket.
2. Los Angeles +156
   Starting line Whitesides +25.
3. Lancaster +141
   Starting line Whitesides +8. 0.6% split their ticket.
4. Unincorporated Los Angeles County +131
   Starting line Gibbs +4. 1.2% split their ticket.
5. Palmdale +121
   Starting line Whitesides +13.

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,009
  1,009 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Whitesides today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Gibbs's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +371
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 7.1-point national shift (13,489 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Gibbs wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Whitesides.
2. The national environment moves about 7.1 points toward Gibbs's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  283 precincts, slope 1.059, R² 0.975, 94 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -35,296 to 8,789
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Gibbs $201,877 · Whitesides $2,554,917
• Call program
  2,123 households, 6,370 dials, about 334 live conversations and 114 voter IDs, at $0.6203 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Stockton +608
   Starting line Harder +16. 2.0% split their ticket.
2. Ripon +354
   Starting line McBride +43. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,957 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Manteca +317
   Starting line McBride +5. 2.4% split their ticket.
4. Tracy +289
   Starting line Harder +12. 2.0% split their ticket.
5. Unincorporated San Joaquin County +261
   Starting line McBride +10. 1.9% split their ticket.

The top 10 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,511
  1,511 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Harder today.
• Mobilize +379
  At least 4,088 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where McBride's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +343
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean McBride's way.

Plus a 10.5-point national shift (18,659 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. McBride wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Harder.
2. In Ripon and Lodi, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 10.5 points toward McBride's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  352 precincts, slope 1.003, R² 0.981, 70 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -39,320 to 2,027
• Cash on hand, June 30
  McBride $18,738 · Harder $4,739,488
• Call program
  5,582 households, 16,745 dials, about 877 live conversations and 299 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Thousand Oaks +938
   Starting line Irwin +8. 3.0% split their ticket.
2. Unincorporated Los Angeles County +686
   Starting line Gallucci +22. 1.3% split their ticket. About 7,466 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Camarillo +511
   Starting line Irwin +4. 3.0% split their ticket.
4. Unincorporated Ventura County +380
   Starting line Irwin +8. 2.3% split their ticket.
5. Moorpark +233
   Starting line Irwin +4. 2.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 98% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,572
  2,572 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Irwin today.
• Mobilize +645
  At least 9,052 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Gallucci's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +438
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Gallucci's way.

Plus a 10.4-point national shift (26,034 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Gallucci wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Irwin.
2. In Unincorporated Los Angeles County and Lancaster, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 10.4 points toward Gallucci's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  901 precincts, slope 1.028, R² 0.956, 280 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -55,351 to 2,956
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Gallucci $33,681 · Irwin $295,478
• Call program
  10,658 households, 31,974 dials, about 1,675 live conversations and 571 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Glendora +272
   Starting line Ching +10. 2.4% split their ticket.
2. La Verne +220
   Starting line Ching +6. 3.1% split their ticket.
3. San Dimas +212
   Starting line Ching +8. 3.0% split their ticket.
4. Chino +175
   Starting line Ching +7. 1.5% split their ticket.
5. Monrovia +167
   Starting line Cisneros +26. 2.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,304
  1,304 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cisneros today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Ching's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +341
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 9.2-point national shift (16,708 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Ching wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cisneros.
2. The national environment moves about 9.2 points toward Ching's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  427 precincts, slope 1.071, R² 0.972, 138 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -37,519 to 4,098
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Ching $64,913 · Cisneros $259,803
• Call program
  2,472 households, 7,417 dials, about 389 live conversations and 133 voter IDs, at $0.6203 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Riverside +462
   Starting line Takano +5. 0.9% split their ticket.
2. Moreno Valley +120
   Starting line Takano +20.
3. Jurupa Valley +67
   Starting line Manos +2.
4. Perris +62
   Starting line Takano +24. 1.1% split their ticket.
5. Unincorporated Riverside County +31
   Starting line Takano +2. 0.5% split their ticket.

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +472
  472 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Takano today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Manos's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +270
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 8.5-point national shift (11,628 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Manos wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Takano.
2. The national environment moves about 8.5 points toward Manos's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  224 precincts, slope 1.062, R² 0.975, 51 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,341 to 4,053
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Manos n/a · Takano $186,224
• Call program
  1,183 households, 3,550 dials, about 186 live conversations and 63 voter IDs, at $0.6700 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Whittier +245
   Starting line Sánchez +14. 1.6% split their ticket.
2. Long Beach +240
   Starting line Sánchez +17. 3.4% split their ticket.
3. Lakewood +239
   Starting line Sánchez +11. 1.9% split their ticket.
4. Brea +198
   Starting line Clemmons +6. 3.0% split their ticket.
5. La Mirada +186
   Starting line Clemmons +3. 2.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 89% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,801
  1,801 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sánchez today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Clemmons's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +369
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 10.5-point national shift (20,432 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Clemmons wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sánchez.
2. It would take a national shift of about 10.5 points toward Clemmons's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  284 precincts, slope 1.088, R² 0.956, 57 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -43,180 to 2,236
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Clemmons $1,659 · Sánchez $415,746
• Call program
  3,212 households, 9,637 dials, about 505 live conversations and 172 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. San Diego +2,547
   Starting line Peters +26. 2.4% split their ticket.
2. Unincorporated San Diego County +1,016
   Starting line Cohen +23. 2.4% split their ticket. About 8,916 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Santee +768
   Starting line Cohen +16. 2.3% split their ticket. About 8,867 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Poway +431
   Starting line Cohen +1. 3.7% split their ticket.
5. Escondido +231
   Starting line Cohen +7. 2.4% split their ticket.

The top 6 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,551
  3,551 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Peters today.
• Mobilize +1,152
  At least 17,783 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Cohen's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +510
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Cohen's way.

Plus a 12-point national shift (33,314 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Cohen wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Peters.
2. In Unincorporated San Diego County and Santee, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 12.0 points toward Cohen's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  562 precincts, slope 0.987, R² 0.970, 199 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -65,580 to -1,150
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Cohen n/a · Peters $2,598,276
• Call program
  18,176 households, 54,529 dials, about 2,857 live conversations and 974 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Redlands +191
   Starting line Aguilar +6. 1.6% split their ticket.
2. Rancho Cucamonga +171
   Starting line even. 1.0% split their ticket.
3. San Bernardino +134
   Starting line Aguilar +18. 0.7% split their ticket.
4. Fontana +100
   Starting line Aguilar +10. 0.5% split their ticket.
5. Rialto +97
   Starting line Aguilar +23. 0.9% split their ticket.

The top 10 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +614
  614 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Aguilar today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Vargas's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +263
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 9.1-point national shift (12,802 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Vargas wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Aguilar.
2. The national environment moves about 9.1 points toward Vargas's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  525 precincts, slope 1.042, R² 0.955, 114 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -28,969 to 3,539
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Vargas n/a · Aguilar $3,457,642
• Call program
  1,365 households, 4,095 dials, about 215 live conversations and 73 voter IDs, at $0.6203 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Unincorporated San Diego County +3,144
   Starting line Cabrera +24. 1.8% split their ticket. About 28,508 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. San Diego +879
   Starting line Jacobs +43. 1.1% split their ticket.
3. El Cajon +692
   Starting line Cabrera +12. 0.6% split their ticket. About 14,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. La Mesa +211
   Starting line Jacobs +23. 1.6% split their ticket.
5. Lemon Grove +51
   Starting line Jacobs +20. 1.1% split their ticket.

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,639
  1,639 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jacobs today.
• Mobilize +2,934
  At least 43,035 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Cabrera's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +404
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Cabrera's way.

Plus a 14.5-point national shift (36,261 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Cabrera wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jacobs.
2. In Unincorporated San Diego County and El Cajon, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 14.5 points toward Cabrera's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  471 precincts, slope 0.975, R² 0.989, 75 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -65,428 to -7,271
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Cabrera n/a · Jacobs $269,452
• Call program
  32,753 households, 98,258 dials, about 5,149 live conversations and 1,756 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Chula Vista +343
   Starting line Vargas +17. 0.7% split their ticket.
2. San Diego +320
   Starting line Vargas +33. 1.0% split their ticket.
3. Unincorporated San Diego County +204
   Starting line Belle +9. 1.4% split their ticket.
4. National City +135
   Starting line Vargas +26. 2.5% split their ticket.
5. Imperial Beach +33
   Starting line Vargas +5. 0.7% split their ticket.

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +802
  802 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Vargas today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Belle's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +234
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 17.7-point national shift (28,185 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Belle wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Vargas.
2. It would take a national shift of about 17.7 points toward Belle's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  394 precincts, slope 1.028, R² 0.967, 58 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,482 to -9,986
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Belle $1,364 · Vargas $163,676
• Call program
  1,567 households, 4,702 dials, about 246 live conversations and 84 voter IDs, at $0.6203 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Redding +1,806
   Starting line Littau +32. 2.8% split their ticket. About 11,576 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Unincorporated Shasta County +1,629
   Starting line Littau +49. 2.6% split their ticket. About 7,003 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Unincorporated Marin County +339
   Starting line Huffman +63. 1.9% split their ticket.
4. Unincorporated Siskiyou County +337
   Starting line Littau +28. 2.4% split their ticket. About 1,861 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
5. Unincorporated Humboldt County +288
   Starting line Huffman +21. 1.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 78% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,513
  3,513 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Huffman today.
• Mobilize +3,463
  At least 29,738 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Littau's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +510
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Littau's way.

Plus a 20.8-point national shift (65,816 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Littau wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Huffman.
2. In Redding and Unincorporated Shasta County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 20.8 points toward Littau's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  713 precincts, slope 0.978, R² 0.996, 215 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -102,057 to -29,116
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Littau n/a · Huffman $1,076,703
• Call program
  26,374 households, 79,121 dials, about 4,146 live conversations and 1,414 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Modesto +435
   Starting line McClintock +7. 1.8% split their ticket.
2. Fresno +289
   Starting line McClintock +17. 1.7% split their ticket.
3. Unincorporated Calaveras County +247
   Starting line McClintock +30. 2.3% split their ticket.
4. Clovis +244
   Starting line McClintock +27. 1.6% split their ticket.
5. Unincorporated Tuolumne County +237
   Starting line McClintock +26. 1.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 78% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,555
  2,555 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McClintock today.
• Mobilize +121
  At least 1,444 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Masuda's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +374
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Masuda's way.

Plus a 22.6-point national shift (61,459 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Masuda wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McClintock.
2. In Mammoth Lakes, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 22.6 points toward Masuda's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  521 precincts, slope 0.983, R² 0.981, 86 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -93,139 to -30,184
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Masuda $89,452 · McClintock $201,472
• Call program
  5,261 households, 15,782 dials, about 827 live conversations and 282 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Vacaville +378
   Starting line Recile +1. 2.1% split their ticket.
2. Lodi +295
   Starting line Recile +25. 2.4% split their ticket. About 2,211 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Fairfield +260
   Starting line Garamendi +25. 1.4% split their ticket.
4. Richmond +240
   Starting line Garamendi +68. 1.6% split their ticket.
5. Vallejo +228
   Starting line Garamendi +48. 1.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 89% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,792
  1,792 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Garamendi today.
• Mobilize +373
  At least 5,192 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Recile's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +306
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Recile's way.

Plus a 33.5-point national shift (75,013 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Recile wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Garamendi.
2. In Lodi and Unincorporated Solano County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 33.5 points toward Recile's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  490 precincts, slope 1.023, R² 0.989, 89 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -101,181 to -49,001
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Recile $1,541 · Garamendi $1,196,018
• Call program
  6,659 households, 19,976 dials, about 1,047 live conversations and 357 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Unincorporated Contra Costa County +704
   Starting line DeSaulnier +17. 2.7% split their ticket.
2. Danville +549
   Starting line DeSaulnier +20. 4.7% split their ticket.
3. Walnut Creek +529
   Starting line DeSaulnier +46. 2.9% split their ticket.
4. Concord +411
   Starting line DeSaulnier +33. 1.8% split their ticket.
5. San Ramon +350
   Starting line DeSaulnier +31. 2.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 95% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,807
  3,807 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean DeSaulnier today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Frese's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +470
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 29.2-point national shift (85,445 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Frese wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning DeSaulnier.
2. It would take a national shift of about 29.2 points toward Frese's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  751 precincts, slope 0.950, R² 0.948, 294 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -118,940 to -52,038
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Frese n/a · DeSaulnier $586,497
• Call program
  6,180 households, 18,540 dials, about 971 live conversations and 331 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. San Francisco +450
   Starting line Mullin +47. 2.7% split their ticket.
2. San Mateo +339
   Starting line Mullin +51. 1.7% split their ticket.
3. San Carlos +234
   Starting line Mullin +55. 3.0% split their ticket.
4. Redwood City +220
   Starting line Mullin +55. 1.5% split their ticket.
5. Hillsborough +187
   Starting line Mullin +25. 6.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 94% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,164
  2,164 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Mullin today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Hoelter's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +285
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 47.6-point national shift (108,087 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Hoelter wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Mullin.
2. It would take a national shift of about 47.6 points toward Hoelter's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  339 precincts, slope 0.806, R² 0.764, 68 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -134,586 to -81,732
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Hoelter n/a · Mullin $219,735
• Call program
  3,549 households, 10,646 dials, about 558 live conversations and 190 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Palo Alto +430
   Starting line Liccardo +62. 2.9% split their ticket.
2. San Jose +413
   Starting line Liccardo +35. 0.7% split their ticket.
3. Saratoga +371
   Starting line Liccardo +34. 4.7% split their ticket.
4. Los Altos +330
   Starting line Liccardo +52. 4.1% split their ticket.
5. Los Gatos +308
   Starting line Liccardo +39. 3.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 88% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,014
  3,014 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Liccardo today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Soulé's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +357
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 44.4-point national shift (117,664 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Soulé wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Liccardo.
2. It would take a national shift of about 44.4 points toward Soulé's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  469 precincts, slope 0.824, R² 0.900, 95 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -148,061 to -87,119
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Soulé $400 · Liccardo $2,152,957
• Call program
  4,862 households, 14,587 dials, about 764 live conversations and 261 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. San Jose +547
   Starting line Khanna +36. 1.6% split their ticket.
2. Sunnyvale +404
   Starting line Khanna +48. 1.8% split their ticket.
3. Cupertino +374
   Starting line Khanna +40. 3.4% split their ticket.
4. Fremont +224
   Starting line Khanna +32. 3.6% split their ticket.
5. Santa Clara +218
   Starting line Khanna +42. 0.9% split their ticket.

The top 8 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,695
  1,695 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Khanna today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Tandon's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +347
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 38.2-point national shift (72,293 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Tandon wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Khanna.
2. It would take a national shift of about 38.2 points toward Tandon's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  282 precincts, slope 0.816, R² 0.878, 56 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -94,105 to -50,828
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Tandon $891 · Khanna $16,929,752
• Call program
  3,024 households, 9,072 dials, about 475 live conversations and 162 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. San Jose +258
   Starting line Lofgren +48. 1.1% split their ticket.
2. Morgan Hill +204
   Starting line Lofgren +23. 2.1% split their ticket.
3. Salinas +176
   Starting line Lofgren +29. 1.1% split their ticket.
4. Hollister +160
   Starting line Lofgren +20. 2.6% split their ticket.
5. Gilroy +143
   Starting line Lofgren +26. 1.5% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 94% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,219
  1,219 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lofgren today.
• Mobilize +74
  At least 1,193 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Lewis's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +241
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Lewis's way.

Plus a 27.9-point national shift (44,090 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Lewis wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lofgren.
2. In Coalinga, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 27.9 points toward Lewis's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  431 precincts, slope 1.020, R² 0.965, 81 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -62,313 to -25,904
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Lewis $3,307 · Lofgren $643,341
• Call program
  2,981 households, 8,943 dials, about 469 live conversations and 160 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. San Jose +547
   Starting line Panetta +32. 0.9% split their ticket.
2. Unincorporated Santa Cruz County +539
   Starting line Panetta +49. 1.6% split their ticket.
3. Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County +515
   Starting line Verbica +18. 2.3% split their ticket. About 4,346 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Unincorporated Monterey County +474
   Starting line Panetta +20. 2.9% split their ticket.
5. Atascadero +188
   Starting line Verbica +4. 2.3% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,318
  2,318 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Panetta today.
• Mobilize +257
  At least 4,346 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Verbica's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +465
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Verbica's way.

Plus a 31.3-point national shift (91,307 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Verbica wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Panetta.
2. In Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 31.3 points toward Verbica's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  497 precincts, slope 0.987, R² 0.980, 139 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -125,368 to -57,378
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Verbica $24,682 · Panetta $5,109,558
• Call program
  7,113 households, 21,339 dials, about 1,118 live conversations and 381 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Bakersfield +436
   Starting line Fong +30. 1.3% split their ticket.
2. Unincorporated Kern County +408
   Starting line Fong +47. 1.4% split their ticket.
3. Visalia +224
   Starting line Fong +28. 1.4% split their ticket.
4. Ridgecrest +125
   Starting line Fong +30. 2.6% split their ticket.
5. Hanford +98
   Starting line Fong +30. 1.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 94% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,652
  1,652 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fong today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Van Scotter's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +229
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 35-point national shift (77,792 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Van Scotter wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fong.
2. It would take a national shift of about 35.0 points toward Van Scotter's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  757 precincts, slope 1.004, R² 0.975, 123 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -103,599 to -52,130
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Van Scotter n/a · Fong $453,750
• Call program
  2,732 households, 8,195 dials, about 429 live conversations and 146 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Unincorporated San Bernardino County +378
   Starting line Obernolte +30. 1.3% split their ticket.
2. Adelanto +236
   Starting line Hodge +14. 1.3% split their ticket. About 4,409 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Yucaipa +174
   Starting line Obernolte +38. 1.7% split their ticket.
4. Redlands +107
   Starting line Obernolte +11. 3.3% split their ticket.
5. Apple Valley +106
   Starting line Obernolte +31. 0.8% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 93% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +967
  967 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Obernolte today.
• Mobilize +205
  At least 4,409 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Hodge's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +254
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Hodge's way.

Plus a 21.3-point national shift (37,604 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Hodge wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Obernolte.
2. In Adelanto, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 21.3 points toward Hodge's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  1,009 precincts, slope 1.001, R² 0.972, 177 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -57,728 to -17,136
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Hodge $10,237 · Obernolte $1,644,222
• Call program
  4,878 households, 14,634 dials, about 767 live conversations and 262 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Unincorporated Santa Barbara County +871
   Starting line Carbajal +12. 2.9% split their ticket.
2. San Buenaventura (Ventura) +502
   Starting line Carbajal +22. 2.0% split their ticket.
3. Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County +486
   Starting line Carbajal +6. 2.4% split their ticket.
4. Santa Barbara +401
   Starting line Carbajal +53. 2.2% split their ticket.
5. San Luis Obispo +209
   Starting line Carbajal +46. 2.0% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 92% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +3,131
  3,131 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Carbajal today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Smith's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +456
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 20.1-point national shift (54,036 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Smith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Carbajal.
2. It would take a national shift of about 20.1 points toward Smith's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  681 precincts, slope 0.979, R² 0.982, 210 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -84,256 to -22,902
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Smith $47,128 · Carbajal $3,383,604
• Call program
  5,220 households, 15,660 dials, about 821 live conversations and 280 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Rancho Cucamonga +872
   Starting line Verlato +14. 2.0% split their ticket. About 12,129 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Pasadena +315
   Starting line Chu +52. 1.2% split their ticket.
3. Upland +280
   Starting line Verlato +10. 2.8% split their ticket.
4. Unincorporated Los Angeles County +277
   Starting line Chu +40. 1.3% split their ticket.
5. Arcadia +232
   Starting line Chu +7. 2.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 94% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,968
  1,968 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Chu today.
• Mobilize +693
  At least 13,717 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Verlato's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +394
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Verlato's way.

Plus a 22.9-point national shift (52,533 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Verlato wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Chu.
2. In Rancho Cucamonga and Unincorporated San Bernardino County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 22.9 points toward Verlato's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  379 precincts, slope 0.992, R² 0.985, 142 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -79,661 to -25,900
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Verlato $205 · Chu $3,674,296
• Call program
  12,957 households, 38,871 dials, about 2,037 live conversations and 695 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Glendale +1,098
   Starting line Friedman +21. 4.2% split their ticket.
2. Los Angeles +478
   Starting line Friedman +57. 0.5% split their ticket.
3. Unincorporated Los Angeles County +285
   Starting line Meyers +37. 1.0% split their ticket. About 1,927 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Burbank +170
   Starting line Friedman +35. 0.7% split their ticket.
5. West Hollywood +60
   Starting line Friedman +66. 0.7% split their ticket.

The top 7 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,616
  1,616 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Friedman today.
• Mobilize +244
  At least 1,927 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Meyers's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +320
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Meyers's way.

Plus a 43.4-point national shift (106,422 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Meyers wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Friedman.
2. In Unincorporated Los Angeles County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 43.4 points toward Meyers's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  225 precincts, slope 0.876, R² 0.965, 28 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -134,867 to -78,085
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Meyers $2,616 · Friedman $469,254
• Call program
  4,191 households, 12,573 dials, about 659 live conversations and 225 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Los Angeles +2,165
   Starting line Sherman +31. 1.8% split their ticket.
2. Simi Valley +638
   Starting line Thompson +8. 2.2% split their ticket.
3. Unincorporated Los Angeles County +106
   Starting line Sherman +34. 2.2% split their ticket.
4. Malibu +91
   Starting line Sherman +24. 3.1% split their ticket.
5. Unincorporated Ventura County +17
   Starting line Thompson +6. 2.0% split their ticket.

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +2,602
  2,602 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sherman today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Thompson's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +415
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 22.9-point national shift (61,050 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Thompson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sherman.
2. It would take a national shift of about 22.9 points toward Thompson's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  313 precincts, slope 0.977, R² 0.974, 42 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -91,739 to -30,650
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Thompson $2,174 · Sherman $2,668,480
• Call program
  4,409 households, 13,226 dials, about 693 live conversations and 236 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Los Angeles +1,112
   Starting line Lieu +54. 1.9% split their ticket.
2. Manhattan Beach +577
   Starting line Lieu +22. 6.1% split their ticket.
3. Torrance +541
   Starting line Lieu +11. 3.2% split their ticket.
4. Santa Monica +501
   Starting line Lieu +58. 2.3% split their ticket.
5. Redondo Beach +465
   Starting line Lieu +30. 3.0% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 98% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +4,349
  4,349 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lieu today.
• Mobilize +13
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Brignano's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +431
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 33.9-point national shift (100,075 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Brignano wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lieu.
2. It would take a national shift of about 33.9 points toward Brignano's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  224 precincts, slope 1.008, R² 0.982, 59 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -134,219 to -65,997
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Brignano $801 · Lieu $1,188,399
• Call program
  6,958 households, 20,874 dials, about 1,094 live conversations and 373 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Los Angeles +342
   Starting line Waters +61. 3.7% split their ticket.
2. Inglewood +331
   Starting line Waters +72. 2.7% split their ticket.
3. Unincorporated Los Angeles County +290
   Starting line Waters +56. 2.5% split their ticket.
4. Compton +235
   Starting line Waters +63. 3.7% split their ticket.
5. Torrance +217
   Starting line Waters +18. 1.8% split their ticket.

The top 8 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +1,558
  1,558 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Waters today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Morales's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +144
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 50-point national shift (63,783 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Morales wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Waters.
2. It would take a national shift of about 50.0 points toward Morales's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  249 precincts, slope 1.017, R² 0.983, 86 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -78,455 to -49,120
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Morales n/a · Waters $269,669
• Call program
  2,433 households, 7,300 dials, about 383 live conversations and 131 voter IDs, at $0.6203 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Carson +252
   Starting line Barragan +46. 2.0% split their ticket.
2. Los Angeles +246
   Starting line Barragan +25. 1.1% split their ticket.
3. Long Beach +165
   Starting line Barragan +43. 1.6% split their ticket.
4. Unincorporated Los Angeles County +133
   Starting line Barragan +40. 1.7% split their ticket.
5. South Gate +94
   Starting line Barragan +41. 1.3% split their ticket.

The top 9 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +930
  930 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Barragan today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Angel's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +163
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 37.4-point national shift (44,982 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Angel wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Barragan.
2. It would take a national shift of about 37.4 points toward Angel's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  190 precincts, slope 1.010, R² 0.973, 39 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -58,755 to -30,987
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Angel $8,746 · Barragan $1,088,423
• Call program
  1,603 households, 4,810 dials, about 252 live conversations and 86 voter IDs, at $0.6203 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Orange +233
   Starting line Correa +6. 1.6% split their ticket.
2. Santa Ana +232
   Starting line Correa +29. 1.0% split their ticket.
3. Anaheim +207
   Starting line Correa +16. 0.5% split their ticket.
4. Placentia +148
   Starting line Pan +9. 2.7% split their ticket.
5. Fullerton +86
   Starting line Correa +15. 0.9% split their ticket.

The top 7 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +710
  710 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Correa today.
• Mobilize +0
  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Pan's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +261
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 14.5-point national shift (20,161 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Pan wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Correa.
2. It would take a national shift of about 14.5 points toward Pan's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  361 precincts, slope 1.081, R² 0.954, 72 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -36,111 to -4,212
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Pan $6,238 · Correa $2,479,554
• Call program
  1,494 households, 4,483 dials, about 235 live conversations and 80 voter IDs, at $0.6203 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)