A long shot on the math: it takes a 38.2-point national wave.

1. 01
   San Jose

   Starting line Khanna +36. 1.6% split their ticket.
   +547
2. 02
   Sunnyvale

   Starting line Khanna +48. 1.8% split their ticket.
   +404
3. 03
   Cupertino

   Starting line Khanna +40. 3.4% split their ticket.
   +374
4. 04
   Fremont

   Starting line Khanna +32. 3.6% split their ticket.
   +224
5. 05
   Santa Clara

   Starting line Khanna +42. 0.9% split their ticket.
   +218
6. 06
   Milpitas

   Starting line Khanna +29. 1.6% split their ticket.
   +178

The top 8 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  1,695 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Khanna today.
  +1,695
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Tandon's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Tandon's way.
  +347

Plus a national shift of 38.2 points of margin (72,293 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Tandon wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Khanna.
2. The national environment moves about 38.2 points toward Tandon's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  282 precincts, R² 0.878, 56 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -94,105 to -50,828 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Tandon $891 cash on hand; Khanna $16,929,752.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  3,024 households, 9,072 dials, about 475 live conversations: an estimated $1,725 at published rates.