Upset Brief · CA-19 · Peter Coe Verbica (R) vs. Jimmy Panetta (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 31.3-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
94,345
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    San Jose
    Starting line Panetta +32. 0.9% split their ticket.
    +547
  2. 02
    Unincorporated Santa Cruz County
    Starting line Panetta +49. 1.6% split their ticket.
    +539
  3. 03
    Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County
    Starting line Verbica +18. 2.3% split their ticket. About 4,346 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +515
  4. 04
    Unincorporated Monterey County
    Starting line Panetta +20. 2.9% split their ticket.
    +474
  5. 05
    Atascadero
    Starting line Verbica +4. 2.3% split their ticket.
    +188
  6. 06
    Santa Cruz
    Starting line Panetta +72. 1.0% split their ticket.
    +148

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,318 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Panetta today.
    +2,318
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,346 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Verbica's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +257
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Verbica's way.
    +465

Plus a national shift of 31.3 points of margin (91,307 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Verbica wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Panetta.
  2. In Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 31.3 points toward Verbica's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    497 precincts, R² 0.980, 139 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -125,368 to -57,378 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Verbica $24,682 cash on hand; Panetta $5,109,558.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    7,113 households, 21,339 dials, about 1,118 live conversations: an estimated $3,704 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $3,704 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.