Upset Brief · CA-02 · Robin Littau (R) vs. Jared Huffman (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.8-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
73,303
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Redding
    Starting line Littau +32. 2.8% split their ticket. About 11,576 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +1,806
  2. 02
    Unincorporated Shasta County
    Starting line Littau +49. 2.6% split their ticket. About 7,003 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +1,629
  3. 03
    Unincorporated Marin County
    Starting line Huffman +63. 1.9% split their ticket.
    +339
  4. 04
    Unincorporated Siskiyou County
    Starting line Littau +28. 2.4% split their ticket. About 1,861 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +337
  5. 05
    Unincorporated Humboldt County
    Starting line Huffman +21. 1.6% split their ticket.
    +288
  6. 06
    Novato
    Starting line Huffman +47. 1.9% split their ticket.
    +244

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 78% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,513 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Huffman today.
    +3,513
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 29,738 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Littau's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,463
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Littau's way.
    +510

Plus a national shift of 20.8 points of margin (65,816 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Littau wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Huffman.
  2. In Redding and Unincorporated Shasta County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 20.8 points toward Littau's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    713 precincts, R² 0.996, 215 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -102,057 to -29,116 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Littau no FEC totals reported; Huffman $1,076,703.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    26,374 households, 79,121 dials, about 4,146 live conversations: an estimated $8,819 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,819 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.