Upset Brief · CA-26 · Sam Gallucci (R) vs. Jacqui Irwin (D)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.4-point national wave.

5%
odds today
7%
odds with the plan
29,689
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Thousand Oaks
    Starting line Irwin +8. 3.0% split their ticket.
    +938
  2. 02
    Unincorporated Los Angeles County
    Starting line Gallucci +22. 1.3% split their ticket. About 7,466 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +686
  3. 03
    Camarillo
    Starting line Irwin +4. 3.0% split their ticket.
    +511
  4. 04
    Unincorporated Ventura County
    Starting line Irwin +8. 2.3% split their ticket.
    +380
  5. 05
    Moorpark
    Starting line Irwin +4. 2.9% split their ticket.
    +233
  6. 06
    Los Angeles
    Starting line Irwin +23. 1.0% split their ticket.
    +182

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 98% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,572 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Irwin today.
    +2,572
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 9,052 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Gallucci's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +645
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Gallucci's way.
    +438

Plus a national shift of 10.4 points of margin (26,034 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Gallucci wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Irwin.
  2. In Unincorporated Los Angeles County and Lancaster, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 10.4 points toward Gallucci's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    901 precincts, R² 0.956, 280 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -55,351 to 2,956 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Gallucci $33,681 cash on hand; Irwin $295,478.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    10,658 households, 31,974 dials, about 1,675 live conversations: an estimated $4,756 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,756 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.