Upset Brief · CA-28 · April A. Verlato (R) vs. Judy Chu (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 22.9-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
55,588
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Rancho Cucamonga
    Starting line Verlato +14. 2.0% split their ticket. About 12,129 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +872
  2. 02
    Pasadena
    Starting line Chu +52. 1.2% split their ticket.
    +315
  3. 03
    Upland
    Starting line Verlato +10. 2.8% split their ticket.
    +280
  4. 04
    Unincorporated Los Angeles County
    Starting line Chu +40. 1.3% split their ticket.
    +277
  5. 05
    Arcadia
    Starting line Chu +7. 2.6% split their ticket.
    +232
  6. 06
    Unincorporated San Bernardino County
    Starting line Verlato +25. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,588 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +201

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 94% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,968 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Chu today.
    +1,968
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 13,717 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Verlato's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +693
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Verlato's way.
    +394

Plus a national shift of 22.9 points of margin (52,533 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Verlato wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Chu.
  2. In Rancho Cucamonga and Unincorporated San Bernardino County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 22.9 points toward Verlato's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    379 precincts, R² 0.985, 142 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -79,661 to -25,900 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Verlato $205 cash on hand; Chu $3,674,296.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    12,957 households, 38,871 dials, about 2,037 live conversations: an estimated $5,460 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.