A long shot on the math: it takes a 22.9-point national wave.

1. 01
   Los Angeles

   Starting line Sherman +31. 1.8% split their ticket.
   +2,165
2. 02
   Simi Valley

   Starting line Thompson +8. 2.2% split their ticket.
   +638
3. 03
   Unincorporated Los Angeles County

   Starting line Sherman +34. 2.2% split their ticket.
   +106
4. 04
   Malibu

   Starting line Sherman +24. 3.1% split their ticket.
   +91
5. 05
   Unincorporated Ventura County

   Starting line Thompson +6. 2.0% split their ticket.
   +17

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  2,602 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Sherman today.
  +2,602
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Thompson's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Thompson's way.
  +415

Plus a national shift of 22.9 points of margin (61,050 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Thompson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Sherman.
2. The national environment moves about 22.9 points toward Thompson's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  313 precincts, R² 0.974, 42 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -91,739 to -30,650 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Thompson $2,174 cash on hand; Sherman $2,668,480.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  4,409 households, 13,226 dials, about 693 live conversations: an estimated $2,515 at published rates.