A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.1-point national wave.

1. 01
   Redlands

   Starting line Aguilar +6. 1.6% split their ticket.
   +191
2. 02
   Rancho Cucamonga

   Starting line even. 1.0% split their ticket.
   +171
3. 03
   San Bernardino

   Starting line Aguilar +18. 0.7% split their ticket.
   +134
4. 04
   Fontana

   Starting line Aguilar +10. 0.5% split their ticket.
   +100
5. 05
   Rialto

   Starting line Aguilar +23. 0.9% split their ticket.
   +97
6. 06
   Highland

   Starting line Vargas +4. 0.7% split their ticket.
   +66

The top 10 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  614 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Aguilar today.
  +614
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Vargas's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Vargas's way.
  +263

Plus a national shift of 9.1 points of margin (12,802 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Vargas wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Aguilar.
2. The national environment moves about 9.1 points toward Vargas's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  525 precincts, R² 0.955, 114 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -28,969 to 3,539 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Vargas no FEC totals reported; Aguilar $3,457,642.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  1,365 households, 4,095 dials, about 215 live conversations: an estimated $847 at published rates.