Upset Brief · CA-35 · Mike Cargile (R) vs. Norma J. Torres (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.7-point national wave.

16%
odds today
21%
odds with the plan
10,568
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Norco
    Starting line Cargile +47. 1.7% split their ticket. About 3,401 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +637
  2. 02
    Chino Hills
    Starting line Cargile +8. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +352
  3. 03
    Claremont
    Starting line Torres +33. 2.3% split their ticket.
    +187
  4. 04
    Ontario
    Starting line Torres +11. 0.6% split their ticket.
    +146
  5. 05
    Fontana
    Starting line Torres +20. 1.4% split their ticket.
    +122
  6. 06
    Eastvale
    Starting line Cargile +6. 0.9% split their ticket.
    +109

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    955 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Torres today.
    +955
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 3,404 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Cargile's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +548
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Cargile's way.
    +302

Plus a national shift of 5.7 points of margin (8,763 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Cargile wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Torres.
  2. In Norco, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 5.7 points toward Cargile's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    350 precincts, R² 0.969, 69 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -26,479 to 9,049 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Cargile $2,873 cash on hand; Torres $339,247.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    4,263 households, 12,788 dials, about 670 live conversations: an estimated $2,432 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $2,432 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.