A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.4-point national wave.

1. 01
   Carson

   Starting line Barragan +46. 2.0% split their ticket.
   +252
2. 02
   Los Angeles

   Starting line Barragan +25. 1.1% split their ticket.
   +246
3. 03
   Long Beach

   Starting line Barragan +43. 1.6% split their ticket.
   +165
4. 04
   Unincorporated Los Angeles County

   Starting line Barragan +40. 1.7% split their ticket.
   +133
5. 05
   South Gate

   Starting line Barragan +41. 1.3% split their ticket.
   +94
6. 06
   Lynwood

   Starting line Barragan +48. 2.1% split their ticket.
   +90

The top 9 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  930 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Barragan today.
  +930
• M
  Mobilize

  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Angel's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +163

Plus a national shift of 37.4 points of margin (44,982 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Angel wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Barragan.
2. It would take a national shift of about 37.4 points toward Angel's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  190 precincts, R² 0.973, 39 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -58,755 to -30,987 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Angel $8,746 cash on hand; Barragan $1,088,423.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  1,603 households, 4,810 dials, about 252 live conversations: an estimated $994 at published rates.