A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.4-point national wave.

1. 01
   Carson

   Starting line Barragan +46. 2.0% split their ticket.
   +252
2. 02
   Los Angeles

   Starting line Barragan +25. 1.1% split their ticket.
   +246
3. 03
   Long Beach

   Starting line Barragan +43. 1.6% split their ticket.
   +165
4. 04
   Unincorporated Los Angeles County

   Starting line Barragan +40. 1.7% split their ticket.
   +133
5. 05
   South Gate

   Starting line Barragan +41. 1.3% split their ticket.
   +94
6. 06
   Lynwood

   Starting line Barragan +48. 2.1% split their ticket.
   +90

The top 9 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  930 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Barragan today.
  +930
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no cities and unincorporated areas Angel's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Angel's way.
  +163

Plus a national shift of 37.4 points of margin (44,982 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Angel wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Barragan.
2. The national environment moves about 37.4 points toward Angel's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  190 precincts, R² 0.973, 39 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -58,755 to -30,987 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Angel $8,746 cash on hand; Barragan $1,088,423.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  1,603 households, 4,810 dials, about 252 live conversations: an estimated $994 at published rates.