Vo gets within 2,264 votes on campaign work alone. A 1.1-point national shift finishes it.

1. 01
   Garden Grove

   Starting line Vo +2. 1.7% split their ticket.
   +429
2. 02
   Westminster

   Starting line Vo +9. 2.7% split their ticket.
   +398
3. 03
   Fullerton

   Starting line Tran +4. 3.3% split their ticket.
   +366
4. 04
   Cypress

   Starting line Vo +1. 2.3% split their ticket.
   +242
5. 05
   Fountain Valley

   Starting line Vo +8. 1.7% split their ticket.
   +241
6. 06
   Cerritos

   Starting line Tran +16. 2.1% split their ticket.
   +212

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 96% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  2,002 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Tran today.
  +2,002
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 60 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Vo's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +5
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Vo's way.
  +398

Plus a national shift of 1.1 points of margin (2,264 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Vo wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Tran.
2. The national environment moves about 1.1 points toward Vo's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  401 precincts, R² 0.893, 79 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -25,592 to 21,102 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Vo $74,876 cash on hand; Tran $3,257,398.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  3,589 households, 10,767 dials, about 564 live conversations: an estimated $2,048 at published rates.