Upset Brief · CA-48 · Jim Desmond (R) vs. Marni von Wilpert (D)

Desmond can win. The math closes using 35 percent of what history allows.

29%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
6,322
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Temecula
    Starting line Desmond +13. 2.3% split their ticket.
    +2,765
  2. 02
    Unincorporated San Diego County
    Starting line Desmond +11. 2.2% split their ticket.
    +1,931
  3. 03
    San Marcos
    Starting line von Wilpert +10. 1.8% split their ticket.
    +909
  4. 04
    Unincorporated Riverside County
    Starting line Desmond +18. 1.3% split their ticket. About 21,984 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +795
  5. 05
    Indian Wells
    Starting line Desmond +19. 3.9% split their ticket. About 373 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +239

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 13 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 16,382 leaning von Wilpert today.
    +5,751
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 40,170 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Desmond's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +744
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Desmond's way.
    +143
What has to be true
  1. Desmond wins 18 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning von Wilpert.
  2. In Unincorporated Riverside County and Indian Wells, 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 35 percent of what recent California results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    653 precincts, R² 0.981, 119 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -18,974 to 19,220 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Desmond $1,230,031 cash on hand; von Wilpert $825,012.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,704 households, 50,111 dials, about 2,626 live conversations: an estimated $6,623 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,623 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.