Upset Brief · CA-49 · Armen Kurdian (R) vs. Mike Levin (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.7-point national wave.

14%
odds today
21%
odds with the plan
22,576
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Carlsbad
    Starting line Levin +11. 3.7% split their ticket.
    +1,141
  2. 02
    San Clemente
    Starting line Kurdian +18. 3.4% split their ticket. About 8,780 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +1,097
  3. 03
    San Diego
    Starting line Levin +22. 2.9% split their ticket.
    +991
  4. 04
    Encinitas
    Starting line Levin +27. 3.9% split their ticket.
    +678
  5. 05
    Unincorporated San Diego County
    Starting line Kurdian +11. 2.5% split their ticket.
    +471
  6. 06
    Oceanside
    Starting line Levin +8. 1.4% split their ticket.
    +467

The top 10 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,398 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Levin today.
    +4,398
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 13,327 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Kurdian's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +716
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Kurdian's way.
    +567

Plus a national shift of 5.7 points of margin (16,895 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Kurdian wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Levin.
  2. In San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 5.7 points toward Kurdian's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    455 precincts, R² 0.970, 115 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -51,737 to 17,888 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Kurdian $17,916 cash on hand; Levin $1,418,237.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,384 households, 49,152 dials, about 2,576 live conversations: an estimated $6,496 at published rates.
For the campaign

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.