Upset Brief · CA-05 · Michael Masuda (D) vs. Tom McClintock (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 22.6-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
64,509
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Modesto
    Starting line McClintock +7. 1.8% split their ticket.
    +435
  2. 02
    Fresno
    Starting line McClintock +17. 1.7% split their ticket.
    +289
  3. 03
    Unincorporated Calaveras County
    Starting line McClintock +30. 2.3% split their ticket.
    +247
  4. 04
    Clovis
    Starting line McClintock +27. 1.6% split their ticket.
    +244
  5. 05
    Unincorporated Tuolumne County
    Starting line McClintock +26. 1.9% split their ticket.
    +237
  6. 06
    Unincorporated Madera County
    Starting line McClintock +33. 1.5% split their ticket.
    +201

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 78% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,555 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McClintock today.
    +2,555
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 1,444 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Masuda's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +121
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Masuda's way.
    +374

Plus a national shift of 22.6 points of margin (61,459 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Masuda wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McClintock.
  2. In Mammoth Lakes, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 22.6 points toward Masuda's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    521 precincts, R² 0.981, 86 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -93,139 to -30,184 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Masuda $89,452 cash on hand; McClintock $201,472.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    5,261 households, 15,782 dials, about 827 live conversations: an estimated $2,740 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $2,740 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.