Upset Brief · CA-50 · Steve Cohen (R) vs. Scott Peters (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 12.0-point national wave.

2%
odds today
4%
odds with the plan
38,527
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    San Diego
    Starting line Peters +26. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +2,547
  2. 02
    Unincorporated San Diego County
    Starting line Cohen +23. 2.4% split their ticket. About 8,916 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +1,016
  3. 03
    Santee
    Starting line Cohen +16. 2.3% split their ticket. About 8,867 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +768
  4. 04
    Poway
    Starting line Cohen +1. 3.7% split their ticket.
    +431
  5. 05
    Escondido
    Starting line Cohen +7. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +231
  6. 06
    Coronado
    Starting line Cohen +1. 5.4% split their ticket.
    +220

The top 6 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,551 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Peters today.
    +3,551
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 17,783 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Cohen's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,152
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Cohen's way.
    +510

Plus a national shift of 12 points of margin (33,314 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Cohen wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Peters.
  2. In Unincorporated San Diego County and Santee, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 12.0 points toward Cohen's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    562 precincts, R² 0.970, 199 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -65,580 to -1,150 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Cohen no FEC totals reported; Peters $2,598,276.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,176 households, 54,529 dials, about 2,857 live conversations: an estimated $6,756 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,756 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.