A long shot on the math: it takes a 17.7-point national wave.

1. 01
   Chula Vista

   Starting line Vargas +17. 0.7% split their ticket.
   +343
2. 02
   San Diego

   Starting line Vargas +33. 1.0% split their ticket.
   +320
3. 03
   Unincorporated San Diego County

   Starting line Belle +9. 1.4% split their ticket.
   +204
4. 04
   National City

   Starting line Vargas +26. 2.5% split their ticket.
   +135
5. 05
   Imperial Beach

   Starting line Vargas +5. 0.7% split their ticket.
   +33

The top 5 cities and unincorporated areas carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  802 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Vargas today.
  +802
• M
  Mobilize

  Few cities and unincorporated areas give Belle's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +234

Plus a national shift of 17.7 points of margin (28,185 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Belle wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Vargas.
2. It would take a national shift of about 17.7 points toward Belle's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  394 precincts, R² 0.967, 58 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,482 to -9,986 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Belle $1,364 cash on hand; Vargas $163,676.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  1,567 households, 4,702 dials, about 246 live conversations: an estimated $972 at published rates.