Upset Brief · CA-08 · Rudy Recile (R) vs. John Garamendi (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.5-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
77,484
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Vacaville
    Starting line Recile +1. 2.1% split their ticket.
    +378
  2. 02
    Lodi
    Starting line Recile +25. 2.4% split their ticket. About 2,211 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +295
  3. 03
    Fairfield
    Starting line Garamendi +25. 1.4% split their ticket.
    +260
  4. 04
    Richmond
    Starting line Garamendi +68. 1.6% split their ticket.
    +240
  5. 05
    Vallejo
    Starting line Garamendi +48. 1.2% split their ticket.
    +228
  6. 06
    Unincorporated Solano County
    Starting line Recile +17. 2.0% split their ticket. About 2,349 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +217

The top 12 cities and unincorporated areas carry 89% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,792 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Garamendi today.
    +1,792
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,192 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and unincorporated areas where Recile's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +373
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and unincorporated areas that lean Recile's way.
    +306

Plus a national shift of 33.5 points of margin (75,013 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Recile wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Garamendi.
  2. In Lodi and Unincorporated Solano County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 33.5 points toward Recile's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    490 precincts, R² 0.989, 89 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -101,181 to -49,001 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Recile $1,541 cash on hand; Garamendi $1,196,018.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    6,659 households, 19,976 dials, about 1,047 live conversations: an estimated $3,468 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $3,468 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All California races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official California Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.