A long shot on the math: it takes a 56.5-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 1310216225 (Denver County)

   Starting line Kiros +54. 11.6% split their ticket.
   +71
2. 02
   Precinct 1310216205 (Denver County)

   Starting line Kiros +34. 12.8% split their ticket.
   +69
3. 03
   Precinct 1310216227 (Denver County)

   Starting line Kiros +39. 10.5% split their ticket.
   +68
4. 04
   Precinct 1310216211 (Denver County)

   Starting line Kiros +46. 9.2% split their ticket.
   +64
5. 05
   Precinct 1310916901 (Denver County)

   Starting line Kiros +48. 8.7% split their ticket.
   +62
6. 06
   Precinct 1310216218 (Denver County)

   Starting line Kiros +23. 10.6% split their ticket.
   +60

The top 12 precincts carry 11% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  5,983 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kiros today.
  +5,983
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no precincts Peterson's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Peterson's way.
  +431

Plus a national shift of 56.5 points of margin (163,794 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Peterson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kiros.
2. The national environment moves about 56.5 points toward Peterson's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  304 precincts, R² 0.929, 55 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -196,995 to -130,135 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Peterson $1,703 cash on hand; Kiros $126,406.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  9,106 households, 27,318 dials, about 1,431 live conversations: an estimated $4,290 at published rates.