Colorado · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Christy Peterson.

Kiros starts 58.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,414 net votes toward Peterson, a 2.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 56.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Peterson the one standing if one comes.

170,208

net votes between Peterson and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 2.

58.7 pts

Kiros lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Colorado races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 56.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find170,208

WherePrecinct 1310216225 (Denver County), Precinct 1310216205 (Denver County), Precinct 1310216227 (Denver County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Kiros +58.7. Christy Peterson needs 170,208 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

145,070 votes.

That is half of the 290,139 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Peterson stands today, and what is missing:

56,900 Christy Peterson baseline

227,108 Melat Kiros baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Peterson wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Peterson short by 163,751.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,983

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,983

Who. 5,983 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kiros today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Peterson needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Kiros.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no precincts Peterson's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

431

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,232

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Peterson's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,414 net votes against a gap of 170,208. Still 163,794 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 56.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 11% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 1310216225 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +54. 11.6% split their ticket.
+71
02
Precinct 1310216205 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +34. 12.8% split their ticket.
+69
03
Precinct 1310216227 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +39. 10.5% split their ticket.
+68
04
Precinct 1310216211 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +46. 9.2% split their ticket.
+64
05
Precinct 1310916901 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +48. 8.7% split their ticket.
+62
06
Precinct 1310216218 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +23. 10.6% split their ticket.
+60
07
Precinct 1310216210 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +50. 8.5% split their ticket.
+59
08
Precinct 1310216228 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +43. 8.6% split their ticket.
+58
09
Precinct 1310216204 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +63. 10.2% split their ticket.
+57
10
Precinct 1310216224 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +50. 8.2% split their ticket.
+53
11
Precinct 1310216207 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +38. 8.9% split their ticket.
+52
12
Precinct 1310216226 (Denver County)persuade
Starting line Kiros +51. 8.3% split their ticket.
+50

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 1310216225 (Denver County) carries the most.

Precinct 1310216225 (Denver County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 71. It sits at Kiros +54 on our starting line, and 11.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 1310216205 (Denver County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 1310216205 (Denver County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Kiros had $126K in cash on hand to Peterson's $1,703. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 6,414 net votes. The gap is 170,208. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.2 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Peterson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 304
Slope: 0.904
R²: 0.929
Residual SD: 4.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 55

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Peterson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 2.

Now to October 1
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Peterson, with Kiros, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 2 to 11
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,983 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 12 to 25
Bank the ballots
Every active Colorado voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Peterson is favored. Ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. After October 26, return ballots to a drop box or voting center rather than by mail.
November 3
Election day
Voter service and polling centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Colorado offers same-day registration through 7 p.m. on Election Day, with ID. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 55.0 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 56.0 points; Bennet carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 61.9 points.

Peterson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kiros.
The national environment moves about 56.5 points toward Peterson's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,431 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 27,318 dials to 9,106 households, before the last ballot is cast.

9,106

households on the target list

27K

dials across three attempts

1,431

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,290 at our published rates: 9,106 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Christy Peterson (R)

An office manager and accountant in the construction industry from the Lakewood and Littleton area, she graduated from Chatfield Senior High School and San Diego State University (Ballotpedia candidate survey; CPR News).

Cash on hand $1,703 and $2,057 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Melat Kiros (D)

An attorney and Ph.D. student in public policy at the University of Colorado Denver School of Public Affairs who grew up in Aurora and attended Eaglecrest High School; she holds a bachelor's degree in political science and economics from Washington College (2018) and a law degree from Notre Dame Law School (2022).

Cash on hand $126,406 and $1,091,198 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Critter Milton (U)

A University of Denver graduate (2006) who studied financial planning, he has served as treasurer of the Unity Party and is the author of a book (CPR News; Ballotpedia).

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Chad Humphrey (L)

A Denver tech entrepreneur and retired Marine Corps officer who served from 1993 to 2013, including in Operation Enduring Freedom; he holds a bachelor's degree from Occidental College and an MBA from Pepperdine University (Ballotpedia; CPR News).

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Shimon Blau (U)

A Denver-born physician raised in the Sloan's Lake neighborhood who returned home in 2013 to complete a fellowship in interventional spine and pain management and now runs his own medical practice (campaign site; CPR News).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Kevin StClair (D)

Project manager and civil engineer (Politics1).

Also on the ballot

John Wren (D)

A Denver business consultant who earned bachelor's and graduate degrees from the University of Denver (Ballotpedia; Politics1).

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Stephen Replin (U)

A Denver attorney (Politics1; Martindale).

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Kiros +58.7. Christy Peterson needs 170,208 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Christy Peterson win Colorado's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 6,414 net votes; the gap is 170,208. The rest would take a 56.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Christy Peterson needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 1310216225 (Denver County), Precinct 1310216205 (Denver County), Precinct 1310216227 (Denver County), Precinct 1310216211 (Denver County), Precinct 1310916901 (Denver County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Christy Peterson need to persuade?

About 2,992 voters who lean Melat Kiros today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,983 persuadable voters leaning Melat Kiros.

When does early voting start in Colorado in 2026?

Colorado votes by mail: every active voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, 2026, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Register by October 26 to be mailed a ballot; same-day registration continues through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Colorado Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.