The Political Group · Colorado 2026 · as of September 26, 2026

Where a dollar moves a Colorado race.

The November 3, 2026 election is over; each race now shows its result beside the plan, which stays up as the record. 9 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall programResult
CO-03
Dwayne L. Romero vs. Jeff Hurd
29% → 48%+19 pts12,731$9,937
29,717 households
Jeff Hurd leads, still countingBrief ›
CO-08
Manny Rutinel vs. Gabe Evans
50% → 62%+12 pts5,012$6,374
16,076 households
Manny Rutinel wonBrief ›
CO-05
Jessica Killin vs. Jeff Crank
4% → 11%+7 pts35,327$7,820
22,549 households
Jessica Killin leads, still countingBrief ›
Colorado U.S. Senate
Mark Baisley vs. John Hickenlooper
2% → 7%+5 pts350,035$58,865
214,131 households
John Hickenlooper wonBrief ›
CO-07
Tim Bennett vs. Brittany Pettersen
2% → 5%+3 pts55,579$8,100
23,357 households
Brittany Pettersen wonBrief ›
CO-04
Eileen Laubacher vs. Lauren Boebert
1% → 2%+1 pts64,831$8,374
24,147 households
Eileen Laubacher leads, still countingBrief ›
CO-06
Jason Clark vs. Jason Crow
<1% → 1%+1 pts60,541$5,335
12,660 households
Jason Crow wonBrief ›
CO-01
Christy Peterson vs. Melat Kiros
0% → 0%+0 pts170,208$4,290
9,106 households
Melat Kiros wonBrief ›
CO-02
Kelley Anne Dennison vs. Joe Neguse
0% → 0%+0 pts145,237$6,559
16,543 households
Joe Neguse wonBrief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · CO-03 · Dwayne L. Romero (D) vs. Jeff Hurd (R) · incumbent

Romero gets within 1,007 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.3-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today29%
With the plan48%
Net votes to find12,731
Call program$9,937

Where

  1. Precinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County) +100
    Starting line Romero +61. 4.2% split their ticket. About 278 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 3065934030 (La Plata County) +90
    Starting line Romero +56. 5.2% split their ticket. About 281 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 3055723003 (Garfield County) +89
    Starting line Romero +47. 4.5% split their ticket. About 329 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 3055723002 (Garfield County) +87
    Starting line Romero +62. 5.3% split their ticket. About 187 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 3065857001 (San Miguel County) +86
    Starting line Romero +70. 4.5% split their ticket. About 213 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,687
    7,687 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hurd today.
  • Mobilize +2,733
    At least 23,969 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Romero's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,304
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Romero's way.

Plus a 0.3-point national shift (1,007 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Romero wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hurd.
  2. In Precinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County) and Precinct 3065934030 (La Plata County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 0.3 points toward Romero's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    477 precincts, slope 0.984, R² 0.984, 56 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -40,310 to 37,975
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Romero $84,208 · Hurd $1,760,849
  • Call program
    29,717 households, 89,152 dials, about 4,672 live conversations and 1,593 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · CO-08 · Manny Rutinel (D) vs. Gabe Evans (R) · incumbent

Rutinel can win. The plan uses 58 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%
With the plan62%
Net votes to find5,012
Call program$6,374

Where

  1. Precinct 8252901058 (Adams County) +73
    Starting line Rutinel +42. 7.2% split their ticket. About 259 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County) +72
    Starting line Rutinel +31. 3.1% split their ticket. About 655 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 8213201124 (Adams County) +70
    Starting line Rutinel +35. 6.3% split their ticket. About 412 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 8213501257 (Adams County) +69
    Starting line Rutinel +54. 4.9% split their ticket. About 226 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 8252901033 (Adams County) +59
    Starting line Rutinel +26. 4.5% split their ticket. About 351 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,001
    5,160 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Evans today.
  • Mobilize +1,433
    At least 33,747 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rutinel's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +829
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rutinel's way.

What has to be true

  1. Rutinel wins 29 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Evans.
  2. In Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County) and Precinct 8213501001 (Adams County), 20 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 58 percent of what recent Colorado results show is possible.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree); with Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all at toss-up, the race is treated as a tie. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    377 precincts, slope 1.017, R² 0.971, 52 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -24,089 to 34,449
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Rutinel $601,232 · Evans $3,880,463
  • Call program
    16,076 households, 48,229 dials, about 2,527 live conversations and 862 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · CO-05 · Jessica Killin (D) vs. Jeff Crank (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes an 8.7-point national wave.

Odds today4%
With the plan11%
Net votes to find35,327
Call program$7,820

Where

  1. Precinct 5121821176 (El Paso County) +91
    Starting line Killin +70. 2.1% split their ticket. About 318 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 5111721614 (El Paso County) +73
    Starting line Killin +35. 5.7% split their ticket. About 405 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 5121821726 (El Paso County) +70
    Starting line Crank +16. 9.2% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 5091421201 (El Paso County) +70
    Starting line Crank +26. 9.2% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 5092021317 (El Paso County) +69
    Starting line Crank +29. 8.0% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +8,038
    8,038 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Crank today.
  • Mobilize +878
    At least 11,861 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Killin's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,660
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Killin's way.

Plus a 8.7-point national shift (24,751 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Killin wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Crank.
  2. In Precinct 5121821176 (El Paso County) and Precinct 5111721614 (El Paso County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 8.7 points toward Killin's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    314 precincts, slope 1.052, R² 0.973, 41 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -58,572 to 8,681
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Killin $1,592,642 · Crank $1,465,048
  • Call program
    22,549 households, 67,647 dials, about 3,545 live conversations and 1,209 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · Colorado U.S. Senate · Mark Baisley (R) vs. John Hickenlooper (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.4-point national wave.

Odds today2%
With the plan7%
Net votes to find350,035
Call program$58,865

Where

  1. El Paso County +12,509
    Starting line Baisley +9. 7,659 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 98,383 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. Jefferson County +8,564
    Starting line Hickenlooper +20. 7,518 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 63,804 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. Douglas County +7,611
    Starting line Baisley +7. 5,743 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 54,851 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. Arapahoe County +7,463
    Starting line Hickenlooper +22. 6,375 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 70,142 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. Weld County +6,276
    Starting line Baisley +20. 2,464 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 51,697 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 81% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +59,620
    59,620 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hickenlooper today.
  • Mobilize +15,393
    At least 162,002 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Baisley's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +10,182
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Baisley's way.

Plus a 10.4-point national shift (264,839 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Baisley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hickenlooper.
  2. In the precincts Baisley's side carries in El Paso County and Weld County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 10.4 points toward Baisley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    3,160 precincts, slope 0.994, R² 0.976, 628 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -556,833 to 30,408
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Baisley $50,021 · Hickenlooper $2,083,870
  • Call program
    214,131 households, 642,393 dials, about 33,661 live conversations and 11,478 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · CO-07 · Tim Bennett (R) vs. Brittany Pettersen (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes an 11.8-point national wave.

Odds today2%
With the plan5%
Net votes to find55,579
Call program$8,100

Where

  1. Precinct 7046022008 (Fremont County) +113
    Starting line Bennett +36. 5.7% split their ticket. About 718 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 7046022006 (Fremont County) +98
    Starting line Bennett +36. 4.0% split their ticket. About 673 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 7046022015 (Fremont County) +98
    Starting line Bennett +34. 5.3% split their ticket. About 672 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 7046022010 (Fremont County) +98
    Starting line Bennett +35. 5.4% split their ticket. About 517 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 7046022016 (Fremont County) +93
    Starting line Bennett +34. 4.2% split their ticket. About 622 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 9% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +9,121
    9,121 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Pettersen today.
  • Mobilize +1,159
    At least 11,085 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bennett's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,583
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Bennett's way.

Plus a 11.8-point national shift (43,716 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Bennett wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Pettersen.
  2. In Precinct 7046022008 (Fremont County) and Precinct 7046022006 (Fremont County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 11.8 points toward Bennett's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    394 precincts, slope 0.985, R² 0.976, 68 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -86,459 to -292
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Bennett $1,325 · Pettersen $1,105,388
  • Call program
    23,357 households, 70,070 dials, about 3,672 live conversations and 1,252 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · CO-04 · Eileen Laubacher (D) vs. Lauren Boebert (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.3-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan2%
Net votes to find64,831
Call program$8,374

Where

  1. Precinct 4304318201 (Douglas County) +91
    Starting line Laubacher +15. 8.0% split their ticket. About 387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 4274003369 (Arapahoe County) +72
    Starting line Laubacher +22. 4.5% split their ticket. About 593 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 4303918120 (Douglas County) +68
    Starting line Laubacher +14. 4.9% split their ticket. About 950 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 4303918208 (Douglas County) +67
    Starting line Laubacher +27. 5.0% split their ticket. About 551 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 4274003340 (Arapahoe County) +67
    Starting line Laubacher +17. 4.8% split their ticket. About 570 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +10,262
    10,262 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Boebert today.
  • Mobilize +531
    At least 9,701 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Laubacher's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,669
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Laubacher's way.

Plus a 14.3-point national shift (52,369 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Laubacher wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Boebert.
  2. In Precinct 4303918208 (Douglas County) and Precinct 4274003369 (Arapahoe County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 14.3 points toward Laubacher's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    475 precincts, slope 1.012, R² 0.994, 73 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -95,495 to -9,591
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Laubacher $3,610,909 · Boebert $247,202
  • Call program
    24,147 households, 72,440 dials, about 3,796 live conversations and 1,294 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · CO-06 · Jason Clark (R) vs. Jason Crow (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes an 18.1-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan1%
Net votes to find60,541
Call program$5,335

Where

  1. Precinct 6263703204 (Arapahoe County) +76
    Starting line Clark +14. 10.3% split their ticket. About 156 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 6163803149 (Arapahoe County) +71
    Starting line Clark +21. 9.9% split their ticket. About 155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 6162530006 (Jefferson County) +58
    Starting line Clark +14. 5.6% split their ticket. About 313 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 6260303133 (Arapahoe County) +56
    Starting line Clark +13. 12.8% split their ticket. About 100 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 6162530004 (Jefferson County) +56
    Starting line Crow +6. 7.3% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +7,296
    7,296 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Crow today.
  • Mobilize +52
    At least 1,013 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Clark's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +960
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Clark's way.

Plus a 18.1-point national shift (52,233 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Clark wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Crow.
  2. In Precinct 6162530006 (Jefferson County) and Precinct 6163803149 (Arapahoe County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 18.1 points toward Clark's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    420 precincts, slope 1.081, R² 0.958, 77 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -85,450 to -19,128
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Clark n/a · Crow $2,707,899
  • Call program
    12,660 households, 37,980 dials, about 1,990 live conversations and 679 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · CO-01 · Christy Peterson (R) vs. Melat Kiros (D)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 56.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find170,208
Call program$4,290

Where

  1. Precinct 1310216225 (Denver County) +71
    Starting line Kiros +54. 11.6% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 1310216205 (Denver County) +69
    Starting line Kiros +34. 12.8% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 1310216227 (Denver County) +68
    Starting line Kiros +39. 10.5% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 1310216211 (Denver County) +64
    Starting line Kiros +46. 9.2% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 1310916901 (Denver County) +62
    Starting line Kiros +48. 8.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 11% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +5,983
    5,983 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kiros today.
  • Mobilize +0
    Few precincts give Peterson's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  • Consolidate +431
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 56.5-point national shift (163,794 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Peterson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kiros.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 56.5 points toward Peterson's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    304 precincts, slope 0.904, R² 0.929, 55 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -196,995 to -130,135
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Peterson $1,703 · Kiros $126,406
  • Call program
    9,106 households, 27,318 dials, about 1,431 live conversations and 488 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · CO-02 · Kelley Anne Dennison (R) vs. Joe Neguse (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find145,237
Call program$6,559

Where

  1. Precinct 2235235309 (Larimer County) +76
    Starting line Neguse +20. 10.0% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 2154935101 (Larimer County) +72
    Starting line Dennison +32. 5.0% split their ticket. About 292 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 2154935507 (Larimer County) +67
    Starting line Dennison +25. 6.2% split their ticket. About 146 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 2145235329 (Larimer County) +67
    Starting line Neguse +30. 8.8% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 2236535600 (Larimer County) +65
    Starting line even. 7.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +9,219
    9,219 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Neguse today.
  • Mobilize +236
    At least 2,887 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dennison's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +928
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dennison's way.

Plus a 37.6-point national shift (134,854 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Dennison wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Neguse.
  2. In Precinct 2154935101 (Larimer County) and Precinct 2154935105 (Larimer County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 37.6 points toward Dennison's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    401 precincts, slope 1.023, R² 0.992, 71 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -176,306 to -92,713
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Dennison n/a · Neguse $3,092,918
  • Call program
    16,543 households, 49,629 dials, about 2,601 live conversations and 887 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.