Upset Brief · CO-02 · Kelley Anne Dennison (R) vs. Joe Neguse (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.6-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
145,237
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 2
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 2235235309 (Larimer County)
    Starting line Neguse +20. 10.0% split their ticket.
    +76
  2. 02
    Precinct 2154935101 (Larimer County)
    Starting line Dennison +32. 5.0% split their ticket. About 292 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +72
  3. 03
    Precinct 2154935507 (Larimer County)
    Starting line Dennison +25. 6.2% split their ticket. About 146 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +67
  4. 04
    Precinct 2145235329 (Larimer County)
    Starting line Neguse +30. 8.8% split their ticket.
    +67
  5. 05
    Precinct 2236535600 (Larimer County)
    Starting line even. 7.1% split their ticket.
    +65
  6. 06
    Precinct 2154935105 (Larimer County)
    Starting line Dennison +20. 6.1% split their ticket. About 227 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +65

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    9,219 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Neguse today.
    +9,219
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 2,887 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dennison's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +236
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dennison's way.
    +928

Plus a national shift of 37.6 points of margin (134,854 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Dennison wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Neguse.
  2. In Precinct 2154935101 (Larimer County) and Precinct 2154935105 (Larimer County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 37.6 points toward Dennison's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    401 precincts, R² 0.992, 71 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -176,306 to -92,713 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Dennison no FEC totals reported; Neguse $3,092,918.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,543 households, 49,629 dials, about 2,601 live conversations: an estimated $6,559 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,559 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Colorado races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.