Colorado · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Kelley Anne Dennison.

Neguse starts 40.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 10,383 net votes toward Dennison, a 2.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 37.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Dennison the one standing if one comes.

145,237

net votes between Dennison and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 2.

40.5 pts

Neguse lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Colorado races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find145,237

WherePrecinct 2235235309 (Larimer County), Precinct 2154935101 (Larimer County), Precinct 2154935507 (Larimer County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Neguse +40.5. Kelley Anne Dennison needs 145,237 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

179,283 votes.

That is half of the 358,565 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Dennison stands today, and what is missing:

102,226 Kelley Anne Dennison baseline

247,463 Joe Neguse baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Dennison wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Dennison short by 134,795.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

9,219

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 9,219

Who. 9,219 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Neguse today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Dennison needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Neguse.

Mobilize

236

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,887

Who. At least 2,887 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dennison's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

928

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,651

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dennison's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 10,383 net votes against a gap of 145,237. Still 134,854 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 37.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 7% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 2235235309 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Neguse +20. 10.0% split their ticket.
+76
02
Precinct 2154935101 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Dennison +32. 5.0% split their ticket. About 292 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+72
03
Precinct 2154935507 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Dennison +25. 6.2% split their ticket. About 146 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+67
04
Precinct 2145235329 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Neguse +30. 8.8% split their ticket.
+67
05
Precinct 2236535600 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line even. 7.1% split their ticket.
+65
06
Precinct 2154935105 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Dennison +20. 6.1% split their ticket. About 227 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+65
07
Precinct 2145335366 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Neguse +46. 7.7% split their ticket.
+60
08
Precinct 2145235333 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Neguse +19. 9.5% split their ticket.
+59
09
Precinct 2082619020 (Eagle County)persuade
Starting line Neguse +17. 10.4% split their ticket.
+58
10
Precinct 2236535602 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Neguse +3. 6.4% split their ticket.
+58
11
Precinct 2236535601 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Dennison +9. 6.1% split their ticket.
+57
12
Precinct 2145335303 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Neguse +29. 7.2% split their ticket.
+57

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 2235235309 (Larimer County) carries the most.

Precinct 2235235309 (Larimer County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 76. It sits at Neguse +20 on our starting line, and 10.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 2154935101 (Larimer County) is a turnout race.

Dennison's side leads Precinct 2154935101 (Larimer County) by about 32 points on our starting line, and it cast about 292 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 30 votes there.

Precinct 2082619020 (Eagle County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 2082619020 (Eagle County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 10.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 10,383 net votes. The gap is 145,237. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.9 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Dennison's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 401
Slope: 1.023
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 2.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 71

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Dennison's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 2.

Now to October 1
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Dennison, with Neguse, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 2 to 11
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 9,219 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 12 to 25
Bank the ballots
Every active Colorado voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 2,887 of them live where Dennison is favored. Ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. After October 26, return ballots to a drop box or voting center rather than by mail.
November 3
Election day
Voter service and polling centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Colorado offers same-day registration through 7 p.m. on Election Day, with ID. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 39.4 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 39.8 points; Bennet carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 40.8 points.

Dennison wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Neguse.
In Precinct 2154935101 (Larimer County) and Precinct 2154935105 (Larimer County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 37.6 points toward Dennison's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,601 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 49,629 dials to 16,543 households, before the last ballot is cast.

17K

households on the target list

50K

dials across three attempts

2,601

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,559 at our published rates: 16,543 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Kelley Anne Dennison (R)

A Colorado native and Larimer County business owner and massage therapist running on affordability, environmental stewardship and pro-family policies (Ballotpedia survey; CPR News).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Joe Neguse (D)

U.S. representative since 2019 and House assistant Democratic leader since March 2024; he previously served as a University of Colorado regent (2008 to 2015) and as executive director of the Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies (2015 to 2017). The son of Eritrean immigrants, he holds a BA and JD from the University of Colorado Boulder.

Cash on hand $3,092,918 and $2,742,281 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Gaylon Kent (L)

A U.S. Navy veteran and writer from Hayden who works as a hotel night auditor and in hospital security (CPR News; Ballotpedia survey).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Neguse +40.5. Kelley Anne Dennison needs 145,237 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Kelley Anne Dennison win Colorado's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 10,383 net votes; the gap is 145,237. The rest would take a 37.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes Kelley Anne Dennison needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 2235235309 (Larimer County), Precinct 2154935101 (Larimer County), Precinct 2154935507 (Larimer County), Precinct 2145235329 (Larimer County), Precinct 2236535600 (Larimer County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Kelley Anne Dennison need to persuade?

About 4,610 voters who lean Joe Neguse today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 9,219 persuadable voters leaning Joe Neguse.

When does early voting start in Colorado in 2026?

Colorado votes by mail: every active voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, 2026, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Register by October 26 to be mailed a ballot; same-day registration continues through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Colorado Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.