Upset Brief · CO-03 · Dwayne L. Romero (D) vs. Jeff Hurd (R), incumbent

Romero gets within 1,007 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.3-point national shift finishes it.

29%
odds today
48%
odds with the plan
12,731
net votes to find
Jeff Hurd leads, still counting
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County)
    Starting line Romero +61. 4.2% split their ticket. About 278 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +100
  2. 02
    Precinct 3065934030 (La Plata County)
    Starting line Romero +56. 5.2% split their ticket. About 281 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +90
  3. 03
    Precinct 3055723003 (Garfield County)
    Starting line Romero +47. 4.5% split their ticket. About 329 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +89
  4. 04
    Precinct 3055723002 (Garfield County)
    Starting line Romero +62. 5.3% split their ticket. About 187 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +87
  5. 05
    Precinct 3065857001 (San Miguel County)
    Starting line Romero +70. 4.5% split their ticket. About 213 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +86
  6. 06
    Precinct 3055723001 (Garfield County)
    Starting line Romero +63. 4.6% split their ticket. About 234 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +83

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,687 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hurd today.
    +7,687
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 23,969 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Romero's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,733
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Romero's way.
    +1,304

Plus a national shift of 0.3 points of margin (1,007 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Romero wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hurd.
  2. In Precinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County) and Precinct 3065934030 (La Plata County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 0.3 points toward Romero's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    477 precincts, R² 0.984, 56 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -40,310 to 37,975 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Romero $84,208 cash on hand; Hurd $1,760,849.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    29,717 households, 89,152 dials, about 4,672 live conversations: an estimated $9,937 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,937 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Colorado races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.