Colorado · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

How Dwayne L. Romero wins.

Hurd starts 3.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Romero within 959 votes; a 0.3-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Precinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County), Precinct 3055723003 (Garfield County) and Precinct 3065934030 (La Plata County).

12,661

net votes between Romero and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 2.

3.8 pts

Hurd lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Colorado races ranked ›

Romero gets within 959 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.3-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today29%

Odds with the plan48%

Net votes to find12,661

WherePrecinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County), Precinct 3055723003 (Garfield County), Precinct 3065934030 (La Plata County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Hurd +3.8. Dwayne L. Romero needs 12,661 net votes. Odds 29% today, 48% with the plan.

The number

167,821 votes.

That is half of the 335,641 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Romero stands today, and what is missing:

157,529 Dwayne L. Romero baseline

170,190 Jeff Hurd baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

29% today. 48% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Romero wins in

48%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

29%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Romero short by 1,097.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,692

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,692

Who. 7,692 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hurd today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Romero needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Hurd.

Mobilize

2,705

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 23,782

Who. At least 23,782 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Romero's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,305

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,729

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Romero's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,702 net votes against a gap of 12,661. Still 959 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 0.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 8% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County)mobilize
Starting line Romero +61. 4.2% split their ticket. About 278 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+100
02
Precinct 3055723003 (Garfield County)mobilize
Starting line Romero +47. 4.5% split their ticket. About 329 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+89
03
Precinct 3065934030 (La Plata County)mobilize
Starting line Romero +56. 5.2% split their ticket. About 269 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+88
04
Precinct 3055723002 (Garfield County)persuade
Starting line Romero +62. 5.3% split their ticket. About 187 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+87
05
Precinct 3065857001 (San Miguel County)mobilize
Starting line Romero +70. 4.5% split their ticket. About 213 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+86
06
Precinct 3055723001 (Garfield County)mobilize
Starting line Romero +63. 4.6% split their ticket. About 234 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+83
07
Precinct 3055719024 (Eagle County)mobilize
Starting line Romero +52. 4.1% split their ticket. About 286 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+81
08
Precinct 3075539080 (Mesa County)mobilize
Starting line Romero +37. 3.0% split their ticket. About 425 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+79
09
Precinct 3065934008 (La Plata County)mobilize
Starting line Romero +54. 4.2% split their ticket. About 242 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+79
10
Precinct 3055723004 (Garfield County)persuade
Starting line Romero +37. 5.4% split their ticket. About 248 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+72
11
Precinct 3065934004 (La Plata County)mobilize
Starting line Romero +63. 2.7% split their ticket. About 220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+70
12
Precinct 3055749011 (Pitkin County)mobilize
Starting line Romero +49. 4.5% split their ticket. About 238 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+67

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County) carries the most.

Precinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 100. It sits at Romero +61 on our starting line, and 4.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 3055723003 (Garfield County) is a turnout race.

Romero's side leads Precinct 3055723003 (Garfield County) by about 47 points on our starting line, and it cast about 329 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 53 votes there.

Precinct 3055723004 (Garfield County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 3055723004 (Garfield County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Hurd had $1.76 million in cash on hand to Romero's $84K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Romero's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 477
Slope: 0.984
R²: 0.984
Residual SD: 4.2 pts
Crossover precincts: 56

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Romero's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 2.

Now to October 1
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Romero, with Hurd, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 2 to 11
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,692 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 12 to 25
Bank the ballots
Every active Colorado voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 23,782 of them live where Romero is favored. Ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. After October 26, return ballots to a drop box or voting center rather than by mail.
November 3
Election day
Voter service and polling centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Colorado offers same-day registration through 7 p.m. on Election Day, with ID. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 5.0 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 9.7 points; O'Dea carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 1.1 points.

Romero wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hurd.
In Precinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County) and Precinct 3055723003 (Garfield County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 0.3 points toward Romero's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

4,653 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 88,793 dials to 29,598 households, before the last ballot is cast.

30K

households on the target list

89K

dials across three attempts

4,653

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,898 at our published rates: 29,598 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Dwayne L. Romero (D)

A West Point graduate who served seven years as an Army Corps of Engineers officer, earning a Bronze Star in the Persian Gulf War, he served on the Aspen City Council (2007 to 2011 and 2013 to 2015) and as executive director of the Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade under Gov. John Hickenlooper (2011). He is president and CEO of The Romero Group, a Basalt-based real estate management company, and was raised in southeast Texas.

Cash on hand $84,208 and $716,576 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jeff Hurd (R)

U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 2025 and a Grand Junction native, he is an attorney who clerked for Judge Timothy Tymkovich of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit. He holds a BA in philosophy from the University of Notre Dame, a JD from the University of Denver and an LLM from Columbia University.

Cash on hand $1,760,849 and $3,552,599 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Cory Robertson (L)

A stay-at-home father who has lived in Colorado for the past decade and has served on local county and state boards (CPR News voter guide).

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Clifton Brown (U)

A retired carpenter who lives in Aguilar in Las Animas County and attended Cherry Creek High School in Denver (Aspen Daily News; CPR News).

Campaign site ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Hurd +3.8. Dwayne L. Romero needs 12,661 net votes. Odds 29% today, 48% with the plan.

Questions

Can Dwayne L. Romero win Colorado's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,702 net votes; the gap is 12,661. The rest would take a 0.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Dwayne L. Romero needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 3055826005 (Gunnison County), Precinct 3055723003 (Garfield County), Precinct 3065934030 (La Plata County), Precinct 3055723002 (Garfield County), Precinct 3065857001 (San Miguel County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Dwayne L. Romero need to persuade?

About 3,846 voters who lean Jeff Hurd today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,692 persuadable voters leaning Jeff Hurd.

When does early voting start in Colorado in 2026?

Colorado votes by mail: every active voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, 2026, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Register by October 26 to be mailed a ballot; same-day registration continues through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Colorado Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.