Upset Brief · CO-04 · Eileen Laubacher (D) vs. Lauren Boebert (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.3-point national wave.

1%
odds today
2%
odds with the plan
64,911
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 2
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 4304318201 (Douglas County)
    Starting line Laubacher +15. 8.0% split their ticket. About 387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +91
  2. 02
    Precinct 4274003369 (Arapahoe County)
    Starting line Laubacher +22. 4.5% split their ticket. About 593 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +72
  3. 03
    Precinct 4303918120 (Douglas County)
    Starting line Laubacher +14. 4.9% split their ticket. About 950 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +68
  4. 04
    Precinct 4303918208 (Douglas County)
    Starting line Laubacher +27. 5.0% split their ticket. About 551 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +67
  5. 05
    Precinct 4274003340 (Arapahoe County)
    Starting line Laubacher +17. 4.8% split their ticket. About 570 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +67
  6. 06
    Precinct 4236535606 (Larimer County)
    Starting line Boebert +9. 7.4% split their ticket.
    +66

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    10,265 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Boebert today.
    +10,265
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 9,701 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Laubacher's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +531
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Laubacher's way.
    +1,670

Plus a national shift of 14.3 points of margin (52,446 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Laubacher wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Boebert.
  2. In Precinct 4303918208 (Douglas County) and Precinct 4274003369 (Arapahoe County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 14.3 points toward Laubacher's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    475 precincts, R² 0.994, 73 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -95,584 to -9,653 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Laubacher $3,610,909 cash on hand; Boebert $247,202.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    24,151 households, 72,453 dials, about 3,797 live conversations: an estimated $8,376 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,376 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Colorado races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.