Colorado · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Eileen Laubacher.

Boebert starts 17.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 12,466 net votes toward Laubacher, a 3.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 14.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Laubacher the one standing if one comes.

64,911

net votes between Laubacher and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 2.

17.7 pts

Boebert lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Colorado races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.3-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan2%

Net votes to find64,911

WherePrecinct 4304318201 (Douglas County), Precinct 4274003369 (Arapahoe County), Precinct 4303918120 (Douglas County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Boebert +17.7. Eileen Laubacher needs 64,911 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

The number

183,066 votes.

That is half of the 366,130 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Laubacher stands today, and what is missing:

144,711 Eileen Laubacher baseline

209,622 Lauren Boebert baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Laubacher wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Laubacher short by 52,634.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

10K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,265

Who. 10,265 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Boebert today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Laubacher needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Boebert.

Mobilize

531

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 9,701

Who. At least 9,701 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Laubacher's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,670

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,770

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Laubacher's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 12,466 net votes against a gap of 64,911. Still 52,445 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 14.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 6% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 4304318201 (Douglas County)persuade
Starting line Laubacher +15. 8.0% split their ticket. About 387 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+91
02
Precinct 4274003369 (Arapahoe County)mobilize
Starting line Laubacher +22. 4.5% split their ticket. About 593 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+72
03
Precinct 4303918120 (Douglas County)mobilize
Starting line Laubacher +14. 4.9% split their ticket. About 950 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+68
04
Precinct 4303918208 (Douglas County)mobilize
Starting line Laubacher +27. 5.0% split their ticket. About 551 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+67
05
Precinct 4274003340 (Arapahoe County)persuade
Starting line Laubacher +17. 4.8% split their ticket. About 570 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+67
06
Precinct 4236535606 (Larimer County)persuade
Starting line Boebert +9. 7.4% split their ticket.
+66
07
Precinct 4303918105 (Douglas County)persuade
Starting line Laubacher +15. 6.1% split their ticket. About 227 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+63
08
Precinct 4303918263 (Douglas County)persuade
Starting line Boebert +31. 9.5% split their ticket.
+62
09
Precinct 4155135402 (Larimer County)mobilize
Starting line Laubacher +17. 3.7% split their ticket. About 610 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62
10
Precinct 4303918266 (Douglas County)persuade
Starting line Boebert +10. 7.9% split their ticket.
+59
11
Precinct 4303918257 (Douglas County)mobilize
Starting line Laubacher +18. 5.7% split their ticket. About 539 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+59
12
Precinct 4303918247 (Douglas County)persuade
Starting line Boebert +15. 7.7% split their ticket.
+59

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 4304318201 (Douglas County) carries the most.

Precinct 4304318201 (Douglas County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 91. It sits at Laubacher +15 on our starting line, and 8.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 4303918208 (Douglas County) is a turnout race.

Laubacher's side leads Precinct 4303918208 (Douglas County) by about 27 points on our starting line, and it cast about 551 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 44 votes there.

Precinct 4303918263 (Douglas County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 4303918263 (Douglas County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Laubacher has the cash edge.

As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Laubacher had $3.61 million in cash on hand to Boebert's $247K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Laubacher's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 475
Slope: 1.012
R²: 0.994
Residual SD: 2.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 73

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Laubacher's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 2.

Now to October 1
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Laubacher, with Boebert, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 2 to 11
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,265 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 12 to 25
Bank the ballots
Every active Colorado voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 9,701 of them live where Laubacher is favored. Ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. After October 26, return ballots to a drop box or voting center rather than by mail.
November 3
Election day
Voter service and polling centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Colorado offers same-day registration through 7 p.m. on Election Day, with ID. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 11.6 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 18.2 points; O'Dea carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 17.6 points.

Laubacher wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Boebert.
In Precinct 4303918208 (Douglas County) and Precinct 4274003369 (Arapahoe County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 14.3 points toward Laubacher's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,797 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 72,453 dials to 24,151 households, before the last ballot is cast.

24K

households on the target list

72K

dials across three attempts

3,797

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,376 at our published rates: 24,151 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Eileen Laubacher (D)

A retired two-star U.S. Navy rear admiral and U.S. Naval Academy graduate (commissioned 1990), she served as defense attache at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi (2019 to 2022) and as senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council. She lives in Highlands Ranch.

Cash on hand $3,610,909 and $10,349,940 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Lauren Boebert (R)

U.S. representative for the 4th District since 2025, after representing the 3rd District from 2021 to 2025; before Congress she owned a restaurant in Rifle from 2013 to 2022. She lives in Windsor.

Cash on hand $247,202 and $1,010,297 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Douglas Mangeris (L)

A construction superintendent from Loveland and Federal Firearms Licensee, on the ballot for the first time (campaign site; CPR News).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Luis Galvan (R)

A Colorado native born in 1990 who founded a health and wellness business in Denver (campaign site); Politics1 lists him as a school facility manager.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Boebert +17.7. Eileen Laubacher needs 64,911 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

Questions

Can Eileen Laubacher win Colorado's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 12,466 net votes; the gap is 64,911. The rest would take a 14.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Eileen Laubacher needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 4304318201 (Douglas County), Precinct 4274003369 (Arapahoe County), Precinct 4303918120 (Douglas County), Precinct 4303918208 (Douglas County), Precinct 4274003340 (Arapahoe County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Eileen Laubacher need to persuade?

About 5,132 voters who lean Lauren Boebert today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 10,265 persuadable voters leaning Lauren Boebert.

When does early voting start in Colorado in 2026?

Colorado votes by mail: every active voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, 2026, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Register by October 26 to be mailed a ballot; same-day registration continues through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Colorado Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.