Upset Brief · CO-05 · Jessica Killin (D) vs. Jeff Crank (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 8.7-point national wave.

4%
odds today
11%
odds with the plan
35,327
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 2
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 5121821176 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Killin +70. 2.1% split their ticket. About 318 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +91
  2. 02
    Precinct 5111721614 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Killin +35. 5.7% split their ticket. About 405 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +73
  3. 03
    Precinct 5121821726 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Crank +16. 9.2% split their ticket.
    +70
  4. 04
    Precinct 5091421201 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Crank +26. 9.2% split their ticket.
    +70
  5. 05
    Precinct 5092021317 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Crank +29. 8.0% split their ticket.
    +69
  6. 06
    Precinct 5092021318 (El Paso County)
    Starting line Crank +38. 6.7% split their ticket.
    +68

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    8,038 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Crank today.
    +8,038
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 11,861 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Killin's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +878
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Killin's way.
    +1,660

Plus a national shift of 8.7 points of margin (24,751 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Killin wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Crank.
  2. In Precinct 5121821176 (El Paso County) and Precinct 5111721614 (El Paso County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 8.7 points toward Killin's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    314 precincts, R² 0.973, 41 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -58,572 to 8,681 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Killin $1,592,642 cash on hand; Crank $1,465,048.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    22,549 households, 67,647 dials, about 3,545 live conversations: an estimated $7,820 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,820 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Colorado races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.