Colorado · U.S. House · District 5 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Jessica Killin.

Crank starts 12.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 10,576 net votes toward Killin, a 3.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 8.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Killin the one standing if one comes.

35,327

net votes between Killin and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 2.

12.4 pts

Crank lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Colorado races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 8.7-point national wave.

Odds today4%

Odds with the plan11%

Net votes to find35,327

WherePrecinct 5121821176 (El Paso County), Precinct 5111721614 (El Paso County), Precinct 5121821726 (El Paso County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Crank +12.4. Jessica Killin needs 35,327 net votes. Odds 4% today, 11% with the plan.

The number

142,326 votes.

That is half of the 284,651 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Killin stands today, and what is missing:

119,325 Jessica Killin baseline

154,652 Jeff Crank baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

4% today. 11% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Killin wins in

11%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Killin short by 24,631.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

8,038

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,038

Who. 8,038 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Crank today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Killin needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Crank.

Mobilize

878

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 11,861

Who. At least 11,861 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Killin's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,660

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,742

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Killin's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 10,576 net votes against a gap of 35,327. Still 24,751 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 8.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 8% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 5121821176 (El Paso County)mobilize
Starting line Killin +70. 2.1% split their ticket. About 318 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+91
02
Precinct 5111721614 (El Paso County)mobilize
Starting line Killin +35. 5.7% split their ticket. About 405 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+73
03
Precinct 5121821726 (El Paso County)persuade
Starting line Crank +16. 9.2% split their ticket.
+70
04
Precinct 5091421201 (El Paso County)persuade
Starting line Crank +26. 9.2% split their ticket.
+70
05
Precinct 5092021317 (El Paso County)persuade
Starting line Crank +29. 8.0% split their ticket.
+69
06
Precinct 5092021318 (El Paso County)persuade
Starting line Crank +38. 6.7% split their ticket.
+68
07
Precinct 5091821105 (El Paso County)persuade
Starting line Crank +28. 9.5% split their ticket.
+68
08
Precinct 5092021312 (El Paso County)persuade
Starting line Crank +29. 7.7% split their ticket.
+66
09
Precinct 5121621179 (El Paso County)mobilize
Starting line Killin +38. 4.1% split their ticket. About 256 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+64
10
Precinct 5121621168 (El Paso County)persuade
Starting line Killin +36. 5.5% split their ticket. About 229 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+63
11
Precinct 5111721622 (El Paso County)persuade
Starting line Killin +19. 6.4% split their ticket. About 463 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62
12
Precinct 5352021321 (El Paso County)persuade
Starting line Crank +47. 7.7% split their ticket.
+61

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 5121821176 (El Paso County) carries the most.

Precinct 5121821176 (El Paso County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 91. It sits at Killin +70 on our starting line, and 2.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 5111721614 (El Paso County) is a turnout race.

Killin's side leads Precinct 5111721614 (El Paso County) by about 35 points on our starting line, and it cast about 405 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 43 votes there.

Precinct 5091821105 (El Paso County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 5091821105 (El Paso County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Killin has the cash edge.

As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Killin had $1.59 million in cash on hand to Crank's $1.47 million. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Killin's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 314
Slope: 1.052
R²: 0.973
Residual SD: 3.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 41

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Killin's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 2.

Now to October 1
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Killin, with Crank, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 2 to 11
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 8,038 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 12 to 25
Bank the ballots
Every active Colorado voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 11,861 of them live where Killin is favored. Ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. After October 26, return ballots to a drop box or voting center rather than by mail.
November 3
Election day
Voter service and polling centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Colorado offers same-day registration through 7 p.m. on Election Day, with ID. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 13.8 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 9.1 points; O'Dea carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 8.5 points.

Killin wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Crank.
In Precinct 5121821176 (El Paso County) and Precinct 5111721614 (El Paso County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 8.7 points toward Killin's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

3,545 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 67,647 dials to 22,549 households, before the last ballot is cast.

23K

households on the target list

68K

dials across three attempts

3,545

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,820 at our published rates: 22,549 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Jessica Killin (D)

A fourth-generation Coloradan and Falcon High School graduate who served eight years as an Army military police officer, leaving as a captain, and earned a JD from Georgetown University Law Center. She was chief of staff to Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff and to Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, and worked in policy at USAA.

Cash on hand $1,592,642 and $3,143,744 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jeff Crank (R)

U.S. representative for the 5th District since 2025, a Pueblo native with a BA in political science from Colorado State University; he was a staffer to Rep. Joel Hefley (1991 to 1998), Colorado state director of Americans for Prosperity (2009 to 2013) and a talk radio host on KVOR.

Cash on hand $1,465,048 and $2,177,288 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Christopher Mitchell (AC)

An electrical engineering contractor and longtime Colorado Springs resident (CPR News voter guide).

Cash on hand $0 and $0 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Mark "Marky Jr" Elworth (L)

A longtime liberty activist who has gathered petition signatures for medical marijuana and patient-rights initiatives since 1995 (Libertarian Party of Colorado candidate profile).

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Steven Fuller (U)

A 14-year Army combat veteran with three tours in Iraq who founded and is head brewer of Wackadoo Brewing, and was named Colorado's 2025 Veteran Entrepreneur of the Year (campaign site).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Crank +12.4. Jessica Killin needs 35,327 net votes. Odds 4% today, 11% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jessica Killin win Colorado's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 10,576 net votes; the gap is 35,327. The rest would take a 8.7-point national shift.

Where are the votes Jessica Killin needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 5121821176 (El Paso County), Precinct 5111721614 (El Paso County), Precinct 5121821726 (El Paso County), Precinct 5091421201 (El Paso County), Precinct 5092021317 (El Paso County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jessica Killin need to persuade?

About 4,019 voters who lean Jeff Crank today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 8,038 persuadable voters leaning Jeff Crank.

When does early voting start in Colorado in 2026?

Colorado votes by mail: every active voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, 2026, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Register by October 26 to be mailed a ballot; same-day registration continues through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Colorado Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.