Upset Brief · CO-06 · Jason Clark (R) vs. Jason Crow (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.1-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
1%
odds with the plan
60,541
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 2
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 6263703204 (Arapahoe County)
    Starting line Clark +14. 10.3% split their ticket. About 156 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +76
  2. 02
    Precinct 6163803149 (Arapahoe County)
    Starting line Clark +21. 9.9% split their ticket. About 155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +71
  3. 03
    Precinct 6162530006 (Jefferson County)
    Starting line Clark +14. 5.6% split their ticket. About 313 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +58
  4. 04
    Precinct 6260303133 (Arapahoe County)
    Starting line Clark +13. 12.8% split their ticket. About 100 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +56
  5. 05
    Precinct 6162530004 (Jefferson County)
    Starting line Crow +6. 7.3% split their ticket.
    +56
  6. 06
    Precinct 6276118364 (Douglas County)
    Starting line Crow +2. 7.0% split their ticket.
    +55

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,296 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Crow today.
    +7,296
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 1,013 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Clark's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +52
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Clark's way.
    +960

Plus a national shift of 18.1 points of margin (52,233 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Clark wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Crow.
  2. In Precinct 6162530006 (Jefferson County) and Precinct 6163803149 (Arapahoe County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 18.1 points toward Clark's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    420 precincts, R² 0.958, 77 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -85,450 to -19,128 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Clark no FEC totals reported; Crow $2,707,899.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    12,660 households, 37,980 dials, about 1,990 live conversations: an estimated $5,335 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,335 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Colorado races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.