What it would take for Jason Clark.
Crow starts 21.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,308 net votes toward Clark, a 2.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 18.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Clark the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.1-point national wave.
144,110 votes.
That is half of the 288,219 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Clark stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 7,296 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Crow today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Clark needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Crow.
Who. At least 1,013 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Clark's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Clark's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 8,308 net votes against a gap of 60,541. Still 52,233 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 18.1 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 8% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+76Precinct 6263703204 (Arapahoe County)persuadeStarting line Clark +14. 10.3% split their ticket. About 156 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+71Precinct 6163803149 (Arapahoe County)persuadeStarting line Clark +21. 9.9% split their ticket. About 155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+58Precinct 6162530006 (Jefferson County)persuadeStarting line Clark +14. 5.6% split their ticket. About 313 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+56Precinct 6260303133 (Arapahoe County)persuadeStarting line Clark +13. 12.8% split their ticket. About 100 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+56Precinct 6162530004 (Jefferson County)persuadeStarting line Crow +6. 7.3% split their ticket.
- 06+55Precinct 6276118364 (Douglas County)persuadeStarting line Crow +2. 7.0% split their ticket.
- 07+52Precinct 6163803155 (Arapahoe County)persuadeStarting line Crow +9. 9.9% split their ticket.
- 08+51Precinct 6163703219 (Arapahoe County)persuadeStarting line Crow +4. 10.4% split their ticket.
- 09+51Precinct 6163803171 (Arapahoe County)persuadeStarting line Crow +22. 8.2% split their ticket.
- 10+51Precinct 6162530005 (Jefferson County)persuadeStarting line Crow +3. 5.8% split their ticket.
- 11+50Precinct 6162830021 (Jefferson County)persuadeStarting line Crow +3. 6.4% split their ticket.
- 12+49Precinct 6260303132 (Arapahoe County)persuadeStarting line Clark +15. 9.9% split their ticket. About 103 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 6263703204 (Arapahoe County) carries the most.
Precinct 6263703204 (Arapahoe County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 76. It sits at Clark +14 on our starting line, and 10.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 6162530006 (Jefferson County) is a turnout race.
Clark's side leads Precinct 6162530006 (Jefferson County) by about 14 points on our starting line, and it cast about 313 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 13 votes there.
Precinct 6260303133 (Arapahoe County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 6260303133 (Arapahoe County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 8,308 net votes. The gap is 60,541. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.9 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Clark's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 420
- Slope
- 1.081
- R²
- 0.958
- Residual SD
- 3.4 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 77
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Clark's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 2.
- Now to October 1Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Clark, with Crow, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 2 to 11Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,296 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 12 to 25Bank the ballots
Every active Colorado voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 1,013 of them live where Clark is favored. Ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. After October 26, return ballots to a drop box or voting center rather than by mail.
- November 3Election day
Voter service and polling centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Colorado offers same-day registration through 7 p.m. on Election Day, with ID. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 20.5 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 19.8 points; Bennet carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 22.0 points.
- Clark wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Crow.
- In Precinct 6162530006 (Jefferson County) and Precinct 6163803149 (Arapahoe County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 18.1 points toward Clark's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,990 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 37,980 dials to 12,660 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,335 at our published rates: 12,660 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Jason Clark (R)
A 1992 West Point graduate who grew up in the district and has been an entrepreneur and small business owner in Aurora for more than 30 years (campaign site; Ballotpedia survey).
Jason Crow (D)
U.S. representative since 2019 and a former Army Ranger captain who served three tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan with the 82nd Airborne Division and 75th Ranger Regiment, earning the Bronze Star. Born in Madison, Wisconsin, he holds a BA from the University of Wisconsin and a JD from the University of Denver.
Cash on hand $2,707,899 and $3,177,447 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Patty McMahon (L)
Spent more than three decades at the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, rising from investigator to Denver outreach and education coordinator and congressional liaison, and served as Region VIII lead for the White House Initiative on Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders; she is a graduate of MSU Denver (Ballotpedia survey; CPR News).
Meredith Ryan (U)
A paraeducator in Aurora Public Schools who moved to Colorado from New York in 2013, with a background in social services, education, elder care and community programs (CPR News).
Samir Ezzeldin Witta (U)
An oncologist who has practiced in Colorado for 25 years and founded Mountain Blue Cancer Care Center in Denver, along with nonprofits that help cancer patients with premiums and deductibles (CPR News; Ballotpedia survey).
Cash on hand -$58,959 and $100 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Crow +21.0. Jason Clark needs 60,541 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Jason Clark win Colorado's 6th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 8,308 net votes; the gap is 60,541. The rest would take a 18.1-point national shift.
Where are the votes Jason Clark needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 6263703204 (Arapahoe County), Precinct 6163803149 (Arapahoe County), Precinct 6162530006 (Jefferson County), Precinct 6260303133 (Arapahoe County), Precinct 6162530004 (Jefferson County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Jason Clark need to persuade?
About 3,648 voters who lean Jason Crow today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,296 persuadable voters leaning Jason Crow.
When does early voting start in Colorado in 2026?
Colorado votes by mail: every active voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, 2026, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Register by October 26 to be mailed a ballot; same-day registration continues through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Colorado Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Colorado Secretary of State, election results data
- Colorado Independent Redistricting Commissions, final congressional map
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Colorado's 6th congressional district
- Wikipedia: Jason Crow
- Ballotpedia: Colorado's 6th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Jason Ray Clark (Colorado)
- Ballotpedia: Patty McMahon
- Ballotpedia: Samir Witta
- Colorado Public Radio: Voter guide for Colorado’s 6th Congressional District
- Colorado Public Radio: 6th Congressional District third party candidates